280
FXUS61 KALY 131510
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1110 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building eastward into the region will bring
pleasant conditions today. Chances for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms increase Wednesday and Thursday
afternoon due to a nearby disturbance. Additional chances for
showers and thunderstorms come this weekend with the approach of
a frontal system. Temperatures remain on the cooler side for
mid-August today before nearing normal values for the middle and
end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Beautiful August day continues across the Northeast as a 1020hPa
anticyclone centered over the Great Lakes builds eastward. Morning
sun will continue to mix with some fair weather cumulus clouds
as areas reach their respective convective temperature. 12 UTC
ALY sounding shows low PWATs under 1 inch once again thanks to
northerly flow through the column as we remain on the east side
of the incoming high. Thus, humidity levels will once again be
low/comfortable today. Forecast soundings support deep boundary
layer mixing extending up to and even above 5kft this afternoon
and with 850hPa isotherms ranging from +11C to +13C, high
temperatures this afternoon should easily reach the mid to upper
70s with even around 80 in the valley.

Cumulus clouds dissipate late this afternoon once we cool below
the convective temperature. Sfc high pressure building eastward
will support ideal radiational cooling tonight thanks to clear
skies, light winds, and low humidity. Another great night to
open up the windows as temperatures cool into the mid to upper
50s across eastern NY and western New England with even mid to
upper 40s in the southern Adirondacks, southern Greens, and
higher peaks of the eastern Catskills.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Wednesday will begin dry before chances for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms increase for the afternoon and
evening hours courtesy of the previously mentioned upper low
beginning to retrograde westward. With little forcing and
counteracting subsidence, thunderstorms that develop are not
anticipated to become severe. However, thermal profiles from the
latest CAMs indicate 500 to 1000 J/kg SBCAPE with steepening
low-level lapse rates, so a couple of stronger wind gusts cannot
be ruled out. High temperatures Wednesday will warm closer to
August normals with mid/upper 70s to low 80s anticipated.

Any showers and thunderstorms that develop should
dissipate rather quickly Wednesday evening with the loss of
daytime heating, yielding a mainly dry night Wednesday night.
Thursday will more or less be a rinse and repeat of Wednesday in
terms of afternoon convection, but with increased coverage of
showers and thunderstorms as the upper low backs farther west
closer to the Northeast Coast. Once again, modest instability
(500 to 1000 J/kg SBCAPE), limited shear (~15 to 25 kt from
0-6km), and an overall lack of strong forcing will lead to the
low probability of thunderstorms becoming severe. However, with
a cool pool aloft extending inland from the system helping to
increase low- level and mid- level lapse rates and DCAPE looking
to be around 600 J/kg, some gusty winds are possible with
thunderstorms that may form. High temperatures Thursday will be
a few degrees cooler than Wednesday, though mid/upper 70s to low
80s can also be anticipated.

Loss of daytime heating in addition to the low beginning to move
back east will allow convection to rapidly die off Thursday
night, bringing dry conditions for the overnight period. With
more cloud cover around, lows will fall to the upper 50s to low
60s with mid 50s at higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The period starts out on Fri with surface high pressure shifting
east off the New England coast, with an upper level ridge axis
forecast to be in place through the day. This should result in dry
conditions and near normal temperatures across our area.

The pattern then becomes unsettled during the upcoming weekend, as
an upper level trough approaching from the Great Lakes slowly moves
east across the region. Low level southerly flow will increase ahead
of the trough, which will transport anomalous moisture (PWAT
anomalies increase to +1 to +2 STDEV) northward. Along with forcing
from the upper trough, a frontal system/triple point at the surface
looks to gradually push eastward through Sun. So will mention 50-70%
PoPs Sat through Sun night, with the highest values during the
diurnally favored times for convection (afternoon/evening). Locally
heavy rainfall may occur, especially within any persistent
convective showers/T-storms. Temperatures look near normal for
highs, but above normal for lows due to mostly cloudy and humid
conditions at night.

The main upper level trough axis may still be over or even west of
our area on Mon, so will linger mention 30-60% PoPs. There will be
chances for thunder again during the afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12z Wednesday...Any patchy fog should dissipate by
11z-12z, with VFR conditions then expected to prevail through
the rest of the day. FEW-SCT clouds around 5-6 kft will develop
due to diurnal effects, but no showers are anticipated today.

There is a low probability for fog tonight with mainly clear
skies, but confidence is low since there looks to be just enough
of a pressure gradient for a light northerly breeze at the
surface or just above the mixed layer. Will mention MVFR vsby
for now at KGFL/KPSF and will re-evaluate potential for
subsequent TAF issuances today.

Winds will range from calm to westerly around 3-6 kt through
the rest of the night, then becoming northwest and increasing to
6-8 kt by late this morning.


Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant/Speciale
NEAR TERM...Gant/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV