482
FXUS61 KALY 090700
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
300 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A brief break in precipitation is expected today as weak surface
high pressure builds across the region. A frontal boundary to our
south will lift back north across the area Thursday, with a renewed
round of showers and storms expected. This active pattern will
persist for most into the weekend and early next week with
temperatures remaining warm with humid conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- A dry day for most today before shower and storm chances return
  Thursday and Friday.

- There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday with the
  primary risks being damaging wind gusts and torrential rainfall.

Discussion:

06z surface analysis showed a cold front draped across southern New
England into central Pennsylvania and the Ohio River Valley. Showers
and storms were ongoing in the vicinity of the boundary, with
some activity even noted from the Catskills into the Capital
Distrcit and western Mass with some weak forcing from a passing
shortwave interacting with the front.

A weak area of high pressure was located just to the west across
southern Ontario, and should be the driving force for our weather
today. While the threat of an isolated rain shower will exist mainly
in high terrain areas and in northwest CT closer to the near
stationary frontal boundary, expect a dry day for most with
continued partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will climb
into the upper 70s (terrain) to mid 80s (valleys), while lows
tonight only fall into 60s to near 70.

Heading into late tonight and Thursday, the aforementioned frontal
boundary will lift north as a warm front into the region, and will
interact with an approaching shortwave across Ontario/Quebec and a
renewed surge of low-level WAA and moisture with southwesterly flow.
This will help spark scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon and early evening. Some storms could become
severe as the approach of the shortwave will increase bulk shear,
along with increased surface instability with daytime heating and
increasing dewpoints. SPC maintains a broad Level 1 (marginal) risk
of severe weather for the area, while WPC maintains a broad
Level 1 (marginal) risk for excessive rainfall. Similar
temperatures are expected with PM highs in the 70s/80s and lows
in the 60s/near 70.

Friday will be similar to today as it will be dry for most with weak
surface high pressure building in. However, the frontal boundary is
progged to be across our southern CWA, which will keep the threat of
a diurnally driven shower/storm here. Once again, temperatures will
remain fairly consistent with highs in the 70s/80s and lows in the
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message:

- Daily chances of showers/storms (highest Sunday) persist with
  temperatures near to above mid July normals.

Discussion:

As mentioned in the previous AFD, typical summer weather is
expected through much of the long term period. Daily chances of
showers/storms, while on the low end (slight chance/chance) are
expected each day as zonal flow aloft (with numerous embedded
weak shortwaves) traverse the region. A better chance of
showers/storms looks to arrive Sunday/Monday as a stronger
shortwave embedded in the flow moves across the Great Lakes into
the Northeast. Although it`s too early to pinpoint exactly
where and when, some threat for heavy downpours and/or strong
storms are likely to occur at some point during the extended
period.

Daytime temps will likely be in the mid to upper 80s each day in
valley areas with lows in the 60s. It should stay fairly humid
through the period with dewpoints in the 60s outside of higher
terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z/Thu...A frontal boundary has become stationary over
southern NY into southern New England near the I-84 corridor this
morning.  Weak disturbances continues to move along the boundary, as
high pressure continues to try to build in from eastern Great Lakes
Region.  Mid and high clouds remain over the TAFs sites with some
lower stratus developing at KGFL.  We are expecting some MVFR/low
VFR stratus to form at all the TAF sites between 08Z-12Z/WED.  The
stratus will remain in place until 15Z-18Z/WED.  Some mid and high
clouds will linger until another weak disturbance will bring some
thickening of the clouds, as well as some scattered showers or
isolated thunderstorms late in the afternoon into the evening
period.  We included PROB30 groups at KPSF/KPOU for
showers/thunderstorms late in the TAF cycle with MVFR conditions.

The winds will be light from the north/northwest at 5 KT or less
this morning and then will vary from the east/southeast to the
north/northwest at 7 KT or less in the late morning through the
afternoon before becoming light and variable a 4 KT or less tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday to Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of
SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speck
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Frugis/Speck
AVIATION...Wasula