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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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570 FXUS61 KALY 141945 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 345 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered thunderstorms diminish after Susanetta tonight, with patchy fog developing as temperatures cool into the 50s and 60s. Tomorrow will be very similar to today with highs in the 70s to low 80s and scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Friday will feature dry conditions, but humidity levels increase ahead of a frontal system that will bring unsettled conditions throughout the weekend and possibly into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 3:45 PM EDT...Current GOES 16 WV imagery shows an upper disturbance located to the northeast of our region, while surface analysis shows a backdoor cold front approaching from the northeast. With north/northwest flow across our region, upslope flow and terrain-induced convergence boundaries have lead to the development of scattered thunderstorms beneath the cold pool aloft. Shear is relatively weak, but with mostly clear skies daytime heating has allowed MLCAPE values to increase to 1000 to 2000 J/kg with the highest values in the Mohawk Valley. This, combined with near dry adiabatic low-level lapse rates, may allow for some gusty winds or small hail, although the threat for more widespread severe weather remains on the low side. Temperatures are near the daytime highs with upper 70s to mid 80s for most places, although some areas that have received a shower or storm have seen temperatures drop into the 60s due to rain-cooled downdrafts. As we head through the evening into tonight, coverage of showers and storms should begin to diminish with the loss of daytime heating. High pressure will build in from the west, so skies are expected to become mostly clear and winds light to calm. This will set the stage for favorable radiational cooling conditions, and we therefore undercut NBM lows by a few to several degrees. Most places should see lows similar to last night, in the 50s to around 60. Patchy radiation fog, some locally dense, is expected especially in the typical sheltered river valleys and in areas that see rain this afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Thursday and Thursday night will be very similar to today and tonight. Thursday starts off seasonably cool with some patchy fog, but the fog should mix out shortly after daybreak. Temperatures rise through the 70s into the low 80s by early afternoon. However, the upper low and stalled cold frontal boundary will remain off to our east/northeast. With the cold pool aloft nearby and N/NW flow, we will once again see scattered afternoon showers and storms develop, especially over the high terrain due to upslope enhancement and along any terrain-induced low-level convergence boundaries. Instability looks slightly less impressive than what we are seeing today, although with around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and steep low-level lapse rates, we could see a few instances of small hail and/or gusty winds once again. Thursday night, showers and storms once again diminish with the loss of diurnal heating. High pressure remains overhead and ridging builds aloft over our region, so we will once again see favorable conditions for radiational cooling. Lows are expected to be just a degree or two warmer than the previous night, with low 60s for the valleys and 50s elsewhere. Patchy radiation fog, locally dense in river valleys and areas that see rain during the afternoon and evening, will once again be possible. Friday and Friday night...The surface high slides off to the east. The ridge aloft will be overhead to start the day, but also slides east of the region overnight as upper troughing digs into the Great Lakes region. The ridge overhead and subsidence should keep us dry through the day Friday, although mid and high clouds begin to increase through the afternoon. Flow turns more southerly around the periphery of the high, and the airmass aloft will be warmer, so high temperatures are expected to also be a few degrees warmer than previous days with mid to even upper 80s in the valleys with upper 70s to around 80 for the higher elevations. It will also turn more humid with dew points in the mid to upper 60s. Friday night, clouds continue to increase with increasing chances for showers as the upper trough and an associated occluded front slowly track towards our region from the west. It will be warmer than previous nights with lows mainly in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Long term period begins at 12z Saturday the upper trough over the Great Lakes shifting eastwards through the weekend. At the surface an occluded front will slowly track through the region Saturday into Sunday. PWATs climb to 1.6-1.8", which is 1-2 sigma above normal for mid August. The overlap of forcing and moisture will lead to scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms Saturday and especially Sunday. The best instability remains west of our region Saturday, and shear does not look overly impressive Saturday and Sunday. However, with the moist airmass in place, locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any thunderstorms. Due to mostly cloudy skies it won`t be overly warm with highs in the 70s to around 80 both days, although it will be humid with dew points in the upper 60s to around 70. Overnight lows will be mainly in the 60s, and shower chances will continue each night with the upper trough and surface front nearby. Will also mention that what is currently Hurricane Ernesto is expected to track well to our east over the Atlantic and is currently not expected to result in any impacts to our area. Monday through Wednesday...Monday, chances for showers and thunderstorms look to continue as the upper trough and associated upper deformation axis will be tracking over our region. Highs should be similar to the previous couple days and it will remain humid. Then, a stronger cold front is expected to track through the region Monday night into Tuesday. While the exact timing is uncertain, we should see a drying and cooling trend behind the cold front as high pressure builds into the region from the west. For days 8-14, the CPC is leaning towards slightly above normal temperatures and precipitation. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions continue at all terminals this afternoon but we are monitoring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the Upper Hudson Valley and southern Adirondacks that are tracking from north to south. While a brief shower or storm can impact any terminal this afternoon, GFL and PSF have the best chance of experiencing a shower/storm and we included TEMPO groups at both sites from 19 to 00 UTC with potential for MVFR visibility during any short-lived shower/storm. Also small hail is possible with any stronger storm. Since there is a lower potential for a storm to reach the valley areas, we only included -SHRA for ALB in the TEMPO group this afternoon with MVFR visibility and VCSH in POU which is further removed from the best forcing for ascent. Any shower or storm will diminish by around 00 UTC but with skies clearing this evening, fog will likely quickly develop at GFL and PSF, similarly to last night. Since both terminals may experience a brief shower/storm, we show IFR visibility and ceilings occurring an hour or two earlier than last night, arriving between 01 and 04 UTC. Once IFR fog and ceilings ensues, it will likely be maintained through 11 - 13 UTC. Less confidence at ALB where rain may not occur so only show MVFR visibility there. Since POU experience IFR cigs/vis last night and conditions will be similar tonight, show IFR conditions ensuing by the pre-dawn hours (07-09 UTC) and continuing through 12-13 UTC. We should have VFR conditions return by 12 - 13 UTC and lasting through the majority of the TAF period but additional showers/storms are expected to develop by the end of the TAF period, especially at GFL, with showers/storms traveling again from north to south. Outlook... Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gant/Main NEAR TERM...Main SHORT TERM...Main LONG TERM...Main AVIATION...Speciale