107
FXUS61 KALY 141754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
154 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be anticipated
today and tomorrow, especially for higher terrain areas
courtesy of an upper-level disturbance backing towards the New
England Coast from the Canadian Maritimes. While Friday will
feature dry conditions, humidity levels increase ahead of a
frontal system that will bring unsettled conditions throughout
the weekend and possibly into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...As of 1:10 PM EDT...Many areas have hit their
respective convective temperatures, with widespread upper 70s to
low 80s across the region early this afternoon. Therefore, we
have seen more in the way of diurnal cumulus cloud development,
and some isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the high
terrain of the Adirondacks, Catskills, and Litchfield Hills.
Overall severe threat remains limited this afternoon, but SPC
mesoanalysis shows over 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and steep low-level
lapse rates over 8C/km in place across the region, so storms
could contain some briefly gusty winds or small hail. We should
see increased coverage of showers and storms through the next
couple hours before things begin to trend drier this evening
with the loss of daytime heating. Overall, just minor
adjustments to the previous forecast with more details in the
previous discussion below...

.Previous...Throughout the day today, an upper-level
disturbance associated with an upper trough will gradually
begin to retrograde south and west toward the Canadian
Maritimes. Northwest flow about the rear flank of the trough
will contribute upslope enhancement needed to develop isolated
to scattered showers primarily in the higher terrain regions of
the Southwest Adirondacks, Eastern Catskills, Southern Greens
and Berkshires this afternoon. That said, a few showers also
cannot be ruled out in the Mohawk and Hudson Valley. Some
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also possible courtesy
of moderate instability (~1000 to 1500 J/kg), but an overall
lack of shear (< 25 kt) and forcing and marginal dewpoints
(upper 50s to low 60s) will keep convection disorganized and
sub- severe. That said, a cool pool extending westward into the
area will aid in the steepening of low and mid-level lapse rates
a bit, so some gusty winds and small hail are possible with
thunderstorms that develop.

High temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than the
last couple of days with mid/upper 70s to low 80s expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms should die out quickly upon the loss
of daytime heating this evening, yielding another dry night
tonight. Temperatures will drop to the mid/upper 50s to low 60s
across the area with some patchy fog once again possible for
sheltered areas as skies are expected to clear thanks to
subsidence from the surface high.

Thursday`s conditions will be quite similar to today, though the
farther retrograde of the aforementioned disturbance could lead
to a slightly larger spatial coverage of showers and non-severe
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Much like today, thunderstorms
Thursday could lead to some gustier winds and small hail given
the consistency in steeper, low to mid-level lapse rates but
given the overall lack of shear and forcing, convection will
remain discrete. High temperatures Thursday will be a few
degrees higher than today with mid/upper 70s at higher terrain
to low to mid 80s in valley areas.

Loss of daytime heating in addition to the weakening of the
shortwave as an upper-level ridge builds east will allow
convection to dissipate Thursday evening such that another dry
night can be expected overnight. Low temperatures will fall to
the mid/upper 50s to low 60s.

Friday, though dry, will feature increasing cloud cover and
increased humidity ahead of an incoming frontal system that will
make for an unsettled weekend. With high temperatures rising
primarily to the upper 70s to mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid
to upper 60s (upper 50s to low 60s at higher terrain),
conditions will feel a little on the uncomfortable side
especially in comparison to recent days. Chances for rain then
increase overnight Friday as an upper-level trough encroaches
in association with the aforementioned frontal system. Low
temperatures Friday night will fall only to the 60s with
pockets of upper 50s above 1500 ft courtesy of ample cloud
cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Unsettled weather is expected for the upcoming weekend into early
next week, as an upper level trough and frontal system approaching
from the Great Lakes slowly moves east across the region. Increasing
southerly flow (850mb v-comp wind anomalies of +2 to +3 STDEV) ahead
of the trough will transport anomalous moisture (PWAT anomalies
increase to +1 to +2 STDEV) northward starting on Sat ahead of the
system`s warm front. Will mention 60-70% PoPs for showers/T-storms
during the afternoon and evening. It will start to become more humid
as well.

Our area may not get into a true warm sector, as the system`s
occluded front/triple point looks to gradually push eastward Sun
into Sun night, with the upper level trough axis remaining just to
the west. So will mention 50-70% of showers with a continued chance
of thunder. Locally heavy rainfall may occur, especially within any
persistent convective downpours. Temperatures expected to near to
slightly below normal for highs, but above normal for lows due to
cloud/showers around.

The main upper level trough axis looks move eastward across our area
on Mon, but guidance continues to indicate slow progress. Will
mention 50-70% PoPs during diurnally favored afternoon/evening
hours. The upper trough may finally move east of the area, but it
could take through Tue, so will need to linger 30-50% PoPs. Near
normal highs and above normal lows look to continue Mon into
Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR conditions continue at all terminals this afternoon but we
are monitoring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing in the Upper Hudson Valley and southern Adirondacks
that are tracking from north to south. While a brief shower or
storm can impact any terminal this afternoon, GFL and PSF have
the best chance of experiencing a shower/storm and we included
TEMPO groups at both sites from 19 to 00 UTC with potential for
MVFR visibility during any short-lived shower/storm. Also small
hail is possible with any stronger storm. Since there is a
lower potential for a storm to reach the valley areas, we only
included -SHRA for ALB in the TEMPO group this afternoon with
MVFR visibility and VCSH in POU which is further removed from
the best forcing for ascent.

Any shower or storm will diminish by around 00 UTC but with
skies clearing this evening, fog will likely quickly develop at
GFL and PSF, similarly to last night. Since both terminals may
experience a brief shower/storm, we show IFR visibility and
ceilings occurring an hour or two earlier than last night,
arriving between 01 and 04 UTC. Once IFR fog and ceilings
ensues, it will likely be maintained through 11 - 13 UTC. Less
confidence at ALB where rain may not occur so only show MVFR
visibility there. Since POU experience IFR cigs/vis last night
and conditions will be similar tonight, show IFR conditions
ensuing by the pre-dawn hours (07-09 UTC) and continuing through
12-13 UTC.

We should have VFR conditions return by 12 - 13 UTC and lasting
through the majority of the TAF period but additional
showers/storms are expected to develop by the end of the TAF
period, especially at GFL, with showers/storms traveling again
from north to south.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant/Main
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Speciale