159
FXUS61 KALY 150750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
350 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another upper level disturbance will move across the area
today, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms again.
High pressure then builds in tonight through Friday, bringing a
return to dry weather and above normal temperatures. The
upcoming weekend looks unsettled, with showers and thunderstorms
likely as a slow moving frontal system moves eastward across
the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Patchy fog is occurring in typically favored sheltered valleys,
with a few showers near the Lewis/N. Herkimer border and N.
Washington/Rutland border. Otherwise tranquil conditions to
start to the day with temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s.
Prior to any convection developing, highs this afternoon should
reach the mid/upper 70s in the mountains and lower/mid 80s in
the valleys. Skies expected to become hazy, as smoke aloft from
Canada drifts over the region.

This afternoon, peak heating looks to coincide with another
upper level disturbance moving through in the N-NW flow regime
rotating around the west side of an upper low centered over the
Canadian Maritimes. This should result in scattered T-storms.
CAPE values look moderate again today, peaking around 1000-1500
J/Kg according to the HREF mean. The greatest instability should
be in valleys due to pooling of higher dewpoints, with SBCAPE
possibly reaching up to 2000 J/Kg (similar to Wed) in some
areas. 0-6 km bulk shear looks low again ~20-25 kt, so storm
mode look more pulse type. However, storms may be able to
organize along outflow/cold pools again. So some strong to
severe storms may occur, with gusty winds and/or hail possible.
The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) for severe storms along and east of the Hudson
River, where the best forcing looks to occur.

Convection should wane within a few hours after dark with loss
of diurnal heating. With skies clearing out overnight, patchy
fog is likely to occur again in favored sheltered valleys and
near bodies of water. Lows will range from the mid 50s in the
Adirondacks to lower 60s in the Hudson Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Fri looks to be the one true dry day across the entire region
due to strong upper level ridging building in from the west. The
ridge should help cap any convection. With plenty of sunshine
and a seasonably warm air mass in place, highs should reach the
upper 70s/lower 80s in the higher terrain and mid/upper 80s in
lower elevations.

Fri night starts out dry trough the evening, as the upper ridge
axis shifts east into New England. Chances for showers then
increase overnight into early Sat morning from west to east
ahead of a warm front approaching from the Ohio Valley and
heights aloft start to fall. Will mention mainly 20% PoPs in the
Hudson Valley, increasing to 30-50% towards the W. Mohawk
Valley. With increasing clouds and showers moving in, lows will
be milder than recent nights ranging from upper 50s in the
mountains to mid 60s in the valleys.

On Sat, an upper level low will slowly settle south across the
central Great Lakes region. Our area will be in an increasingly
moist SW flow regime downstream of the upper low. At the
surface, the aforementioned warm front approaching from the
south/west looks to get close to our area, but is expected to
remain south. So we are expecting mostly cloudy skies with
showers becoming likely, first west of the Hudson Valley then
spreading east across the rest of the area Sat evening. Will
continue to mention chance of thunder, although the magnitude of
instability is in question north of the warm front. With a few
breaks of sun possible, highs around 80F look attainable in
lower elevations Sat afternoon.

Showers and a few T-storms look to continue Sat night as the
upper low meanders east into the lower Great Lakes. There may be
some T- storms around too, with the potential for locally heavy
rainfall as PWATs rise to +1 to +2 STDEV. Low temperatures will
be mild in the 60s with humid conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Unsettled conditions expected Sunday through Monday, as slow
moving upper level trough and surface low track across the
region. Expect occasional showers with embedded thunderstorms
Sunday/Sunday night, with additional showers and thunderstorms
Monday as main upper level trough moves through. Locally heavy
rainfall may occur at times with PWAT`s of 1.5-1.7" (+1 to +2
SD) and possible repeated downpours in some locations given slow
movement of system.

Some lingering showers/thunderstorms possible Tuesday with
upper level trough/cold pool nearby, otherwise some improvement
by Wednesday, although still can not rule out isolated afternoon
showers with cold air aloft persisting.

Temperatures will generally remain slightly below normal
through the period, especially daytime highs with mainly 75-80
in valley areas and 60s across higher terrain areas, although it
will be somewhat humid Sunday/Monday with dewpoints in the 60s
to lower 70s. Much less humid Tuesday/Wednesday with dewpoints
falling into the 50s. Overnight lows mainly in the 60s Monday
morning, mid 50s to lower 60s Tuesday morning, then 50s for most
areas Wednesday morning with some 40s across the southern
Adirondacks and higher terrain areas of southern VT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...patchy fog is expected to develop through
daybreak, mainly at KGFL and KPSF where periods of IFR/LIFR
conditions are possible, especially between 08Z-11Z/Thu. Chances
for fog and associated sub-VFR conditions are less at KALB and
KPOU.

Any fog will quickly dissipate after sunrise, with VFR
conditions returning to all terminals after 12-13Z Thu.
Isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
between 16Z-19Z/Thu, and should taper off between 22Z-24Z/Thu.
Brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible.

After 00Z/Fri, a period of VFR conditions is expected, although
patchy ground fog could develop after 02Z/Fri at any site where
prior rainfall occurs.

Light/variable to calm winds overnight will trend into the west
to northwest at 4-8 KT by late Thursday morning into the
afternoon, before becoming light/variable toward and after
sunset. Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and
near thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL