021
FXUS61 KALY 131959
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
359 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and quiet weather will return for Sunday and it will remain
hot, although not quite as muggy as recent days. More warm and
humid weather, along with some additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Isolated showers and storms continue but are quite isolated.
Based on radar and satellite trends, the activity is not
expected to expand or strengthen. So, isolated showers and
storms are expected to dissipate this evening, Upper energy
beginning to exit through eastern Canada.

The sky should be mostly clear with light winds. There could be
patchy fog but with such limited coverage of rain and slight
drying trend, fog would be quite patchy and not including at
this time but trends will have to be watched. Lows in the 60s
with upper 50s to around 60 northern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mostly sunny Sunday with very little instability. Maybe an
isolated shower in higher terrain but too isolated to put into
the forecast. Light winds but good mixing will help temperatures
to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s and cooler in higher
terrain.

There are some disagreements in sources of guidance/ensembles
with the timing and track of small northern stream upper
impulses within broad cyclonic upper flow. Upper heights do rise
slowly and low level moisture and humidity will increase Monday
and Tuesday. One upper impulse is expected to track through our
region later Sunday night and Monday morning with some scattered
showers and maybe a rumble of thunder. This will be the leading
edge of the increasing low level moisture and humidity. Boundary
layer temperatures will also increase a bit. Sunshine Monday
afternoon will help temperatures to reach the upper 80s to lower
90s and cooler in higher terrain.

There could be a complex of thunderstorms Monday afternoon with
one upper impulse that could limit heating, but some sources of
guidance suggest little to no thunderstorm activity. The lack of
agreement from sources of guidance is causing a lower confidence
where and if Heat Advisories will be needed Monday. Including
chances for thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening until
better agreement in the guidance/ensembles. Instability will be
considerable and there could be a small zone of enhanced low
level shear. Still, the instability and shear could be enough
for some locally strong to isolated severe thunderstorms. Some
heat index values could reach the mid 90s in the Hudson Valley
to NW CT and a Heat Advisory will be considered once confidence
increases in the precise areas that have the best chances for
the higher heat index values.

More disagreements in sources of guidance/ensembles for timing
of another upper impulse Tuesday. Chances for storms could be
early in the day Tuesday, ending by midday or early afternoon,
while other guidance/ensembles suggests afternoon storms.
Instability will be considerable and deep layer shear could be
30 Kt or better, which could support strong to isolated severe
storms but too early to have high confidence. Highs around 90 to
lower 90s with some mid 90s Hudson Valley and cooler in higher
terrain. Heat headlines could be needed Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Strong northern stream upper energy drops out of Canada
Wednesday and Thursday and organized convection is expected
Wednesday, exiting our region Wednesday night through Thursday
morning. Cooler and drier weather is expected Friday into next
weekend.

Highs Wednesday in the upper 80s to lower 90s with a few mid 90s
mid Hudson Valley and NW CT and cooler in higher terrain. Highs
Thursday and Friday in the 80s with 70s higher terrain. Highs
Saturday well in the 80s with around 80 higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18z Sunday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals
this afternoon with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. A few
showers have popped up near KGFL and KALB but look to remain
outside of the terminal bounds. VFR conditions are anticipated
to persist throughout the vast majority of the 18z TAF cycle,
though some fog/mist could develop at KGFL/KPSF that could
worsen conditions to the MVFR and possibly even the IFR
categories. Some mist was indicated to develop at KPOU as well
by some thermal profiles, but conditions should remain VFR here.
With plenty of sunshine tomorrow morning, mist/fog will burn
off swiftly to yield VFR conditions once again at all terminals.

Winds throughout the period will remain light and variable at
sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Gant