040
FXUS61 KALY 141845
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
245 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Humidity levels will increase Monday through Wednesday with hot
temperatures continuing, along with increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will cross the region
Wednesday with additional showers and thunderstorms, followed by
cooler and much less humid conditions by late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Lots of sun across the region and a few clouds may form this
afternoon but sun and light winds will help temperatures to
reach current forecasted levels. Just minor adjustments to
temperatures and sky cover through this afternoon.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
Mostly sunny skies are expected today, with hot temperatures
once again. However, with lower PWAT`s in place, dewpoints will
likely remain and/or fall back into the lower/mid 60s or even
lower this afternoon. This will allow heat indices to remain
slightly below the actual temperatures this afternoon, with heat
indices generally reaching the lower 90s in valley areas,
perhaps briefly approaching 95 within portions of the mid
Hudson Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Warm and becoming slightly more humid for tonight, with chances
of showers/thunderstorms late tonight across portions of the SW
Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley as the leading edge of
more humid air approaches from the west. Lows mainly in the 60s,
though a few upper 50s are possible across the SW Adirondacks.

Hot and more humid for Monday, although dewpoints should
generally remain in the 60s. Actual temperatures should reach
90-95 within most valley areas, which should lead to heat
indices reaching the mid/upper 90s in these areas. However,
there is a possibility that some scattered
showers/thunderstorms, and/or debris clouds from upstream
convection limits temperatures somewhat. Due to this
uncertainty, have not issued heat advisories just yet, however
should confidence increase further, then heat advisories would
be issued later today for at lease some areas below 1000 feet in
elevation.

Increasing instability (MU CAPES >1000 J/kg) and possible
forcing from an upstream shortwave/MCV may bring scattered
showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, some of which
could produce locally strong wind gusts given potentially steep
low level lapse rates and DCAPE around/over 1000 J/kg. SPC has
placed western areas (western Mohawk Valley, Schoharie
County/eastern Catskills) within a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts possible.

Some lingering scattered showers/thunderstorms Monday night
possible, otherwise warm and humid with lows in the mid 60s to
lower/mid 70s.

Hot and humid conditions continue Tuesday, with some potential
for this being hotter than Monday, along with slightly higher
dewpoints. Significant instability (MU CAPES 1500-2500+ J/kg)
and additional shortwave energy approaching from the west could
allow for clusters of strong thunderstorms to develop. SPC has
placed much of the region within a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts possible. High
temperatures should reach the lower/mid 90s within most valley
areas and 80s across higher elevations. As dewpoints reach the
upper 60s to lower 70s within valley areas, heat indices should
reach the upper 90s to lower 100`s, and heat indices will likely
be needed for many elevations below 1000 feet.

Lingering showers/thunderstorms through Tuesday evening should
decrease in coverage overnight, however it will remain warm and
humid with patchy fog developing. Lows mainly in the mid 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A sharp upper level shortwave will be located over the Great Lakes
on Wednesday and will be lifting to the northeast across southern
Canada by Thursday.  At the surface, a cold front will be moving
across the region.  There are some differences in the model guidance
regarding the exact timing, but the front looks to cross the area at
some point between late Wednesday and early Thursday.  Ahead of the
front, there should be a fairly widespread showers and
thunderstorms.  Depending on if the timing lines up with peak
heating on Wednesday, there will be the potential for strong storms
and heavy downpours with this activity.  In addition, it will be
continued warm and muggy ahead of the front on Wednesday and
southern areas could need another Heat Advisory once again. Highs
should be in the upper 80s to low 90s in valley areas with muggy
dewpoints near 70.

Once the front clears through the area, drier, cooler and less humid
air will move into the region for the late week. Will continue to
mention a chance for a shower or thunderstorm on Thursday in case
the frontal timing is slower, but will keep the forecast dry for
Thursday night into the weekend, as high pressure builds into the
area.  Daytime temps will only be in the lower to middle 80s for
valley areas on Thursday and Friday, with perhaps mid to upper 80s
returning by Saturday. Dewpoints will be lowering down into the 50s
by Friday before recovering back into the 60s by Saturday.
Overnight lows look more comfortable compared to recent days with
mainly 50s to low 60s as well.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18z Monday...VFR conditions prevail at all terminals
with visible satellite showing mainly clear skies outside of
some patchy, fair weather cumulus. Conditions are anticipated to
remain steady throughout the 18z TAF period despite some
increasing mid-level cloud coverage possible overnight tonight
with the nearing of a weak, upper-level disturbance. A stray
shower or two could develop at KGFL and/or KALB as a result, but
confidence was not high enough in this element of the forecast
to include showers in the TAFs at this time. Should a shower
move into terminal bounds overnight tonight, it should be light
and brief enough to not disrupt VFR conditions.

Winds throughout the 18z cycle will be light and variable at
speeds ranging from 2-5 kt.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for CTZ001-
     013.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     NYZ038>041-043-049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066-083-084.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Gant