Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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061 FXUS61 KALY 140752 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 352 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Today will be hot but somewhat less humid than recent days. Humidity levels will then increase Monday through Wednesday with hot temperatures continuing, along with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will cross the region Wednesday with additional showers and thunderstorms, followed by cooler and much less humid conditions by late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 350 AM EDT, skies remain mostly clear, with patchy fog, some locally dense across portions of the southern Adirondacks/upper Hudson Valley, as well as the Housatonic Valley in SW MA/NW CT. Temps have cooled into the mid 50s across portions of the SW Adirondacks, with 60s most other places. Mostly sunny skies are expected today, with hot temperatures once again. However, with lower PWAT`s in place, dewpoints will likely remain and/or fall back into the lower/mid 60s or even lower this afternoon. This will allow heat indices to remain slightly below the actual temperatures this afternoon, with heat indices generally reaching the lower 90s in valley areas, perhaps briefly approaching 95 within portions of the mid Hudson Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Warm and becoming slightly more humid for tonight, with chances of showers/thunderstorms late tonight across portions of the SW Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley as the leading edge of more humid air approaches from the west. Lows mainly in the 60s, though a few upper 50s are possible across the SW Adirondacks. Hot and more humid for Monday, although dewpoints should generally remain in the 60s. Actual temperatures should reach 90-95 within most valley areas, which should lead to heat indices reaching the mid/upper 90s in these areas. However, there is a possibility that some scattered showers/thunderstorms, and/or debris clouds from upstream convection limits temperatures somewhat. Due to this uncertainty, have not issued heat advisories just yet, however should confidence increase further, then heat advisories would be issued later today for at lease some areas below 1000 feet in elevation. Increasing instability (MU CAPES >1000 J/kg) and possible forcing from an upstream shortwave/MCV may bring scattered showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, some of which could produce locally strong wind gusts given potentially steep low level lapse rates and DCAPE around/over 1000 J/kg. SPC has placed western areas (western Mohawk Valley, Schoharie County/eastern Catskills) within a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts possible. Some lingering scattered showers/thunderstorms Monday night possible, otherwise warm and humid with lows in the mid 60s to lower/mid 70s. Hot and humid conditions continue Tuesday, with some potential for this being hotter than Monday, along with slightly higher dewpoints. Significant instability (MU CAPES 1500-2500+ J/kg) and additional shortwave energy approaching from the west could allow for clusters of strong thunderstorms to develop. SPC has placed much of the region within a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts possible. High temperatures should reach the lower/mid 90s within most valley areas and 80s across higher elevations. As dewpoints reach the upper 60s to lower 70s within valley areas, heat indices should reach the upper 90s to lower 100`s, and heat indices will likely be needed for many elevations below 1000 feet. Lingering showers/thunderstorms through Tuesday evening should decrease in coverage overnight, however it will remain warm and humid with patchy fog developing. Lows mainly in the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A sharp upper level shortwave will be located over the Great Lakes on Wednesday and will be lifting to the northeast across southern Canada by Thursday. At the surface, a cold front will be moving across the region. There are some differences in the model guidance regarding the exact timing, but the front looks to cross the area at some point between late Wednesday and early Thursday. Ahead of the front, there should be a fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms. Depending on if the timing lines up with peak heating on Wednesday, there will be the potential for strong storms and heavy downpours with this activity. In addition, it will be continued warm and muggy ahead of the front on Wednesday and southern areas could need another Heat Advisory once again. Highs should be in the upper 80s to low 90s in valley areas with muggy dewpoints near 70. Once the front clears through the area, drier, cooler and less humid air will move into the region for the late week. Will continue to mention a chance for a shower or thunderstorm on Thursday in case the frontal timing is slower, but will keep the forecast dry for Thursday night into the weekend, as high pressure builds into the area. Daytime temps will only be in the lower to middle 80s for valley areas on Thursday and Friday, with perhaps mid to upper 80s returning by Saturday. Dewpoints will be lowering down into the 50s by Friday before recovering back into the 60s by Saturday. Overnight lows look more comfortable compared to recent days with mainly 50s to low 60s as well. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Satellite imagery and surface obs show skies are fairly clear across the region early this morning. With the clear skies and light/calm winds, some radiational fog has already developed at KGFL. Will allow for periods of IFR fog there through sunrise. The other sites should stay VFR, although cannot totally rule out some brief MVFR mist at KPOU right around daybreak. Winds will stay very light or calm through daybreak. Any fog/mist should dissipate shortly after sunrise, with VFR conditions returning by 12z. During the day on Sunday, flying conditions will be VFR for all sites. After a clear morning, some diurnal cu (mainly few-sct) will develop during the afternoon hours at 4-6 kft. Some cirrus will start to spread into the region during Sunday evening as well. Winds will be fairly light, either southerly or westerly around 6 kts or less. It will stay dry with no precip on Sunday into Sunday evening. Outlook... Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/NAS NEAR TERM...KL SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Frugis