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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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808 FXUS61 KALY 170001 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 801 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Clouds will increase tonight, as an upper level disturbance approaches the area from the west. Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday, although there will be a better chance with more widespread showers and thunderstorms for Sunday into Monday. Behind this system, cooler and less humid weather with dry conditions is expected for Tuesday through much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 722 PM EDT...The isolated showers and thunderstorms over the western New England higher terrain have diminished. All the PoPs were removed. High clouds continue to increase from the south and west associated with the mid and upper level trough. A thin veil of smoke continues over the region from the Canadian fires. Some changes to sky cover, PoPs/WX and diurnal T/TD trends with the this update. A mild night is expected with lows mainly in the 60s. PREV DISCUSSION [0336 pm EDT]... During the overnight hours, it should stay dry across the area. As the high pressure area departs and the ridge axis shifts eastward, the low level flow will increase out of the south. This may allow for some patches of low stratus clouds to start moving northward for later in the overnight, although the exact extent and coverage of this is still in question. Otherwise, it should stay fairly quiet with lows falling into the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... On Saturday, a large and slow moving cutoff upper level low will be moving across the Great Lakes. As this system slowly heads towards the area, clouds will be increasing through the day on Saturday. Surface warm front will be located southwest of area, but it should not reach the area through the day on Saturday. Despite some clouds, there should be enough breaks of sun to allow for daytime temps to reach the upper 70s to low 80s across the area. With the moist southerly flow, it will be rather muggy with dewpoints well into the 60s. CAMs suggest there will be a chance for some showers to start spreading into the area during the day on Saturday, especially by afternoon and evening. However, the coverage looks only isolated to scattered and most of this activity should be for areas west of the Hudson Valley. The heaviest downpours should remain west of the area on Saturday, so no threat for any flooding or stronger storms is expected on Saturday. With the moist southerly flow, it looks fairly cloudy for Saturday night. There could be a more showers moving into the area on Saturday night, but the best forcing will continue to remain west of the area. On Sunday, the large upper level low will be a little closer to the area, but still remain west of the area over the eastern Great Lakes. The surface occluded boundary and warm front will continue to remain west and southwest of the area, so our area will be still ahead of the strongest lift and out of the better instability as well. As a result, there will be some more showers and t-storms around on Sunday compared to Saturday, but the heaviest and more widespread activity will still be west of the area. There will be a decent amount of cloud cover around, so temps will be held into the 70s and it will continue to remain fairly muggy. As the upper level low pushes into western New York, there will continue to be showers and t-storms around on Sunday night. Some heaviest downpours are expected to occur, as the activity becomes more widespread and PWATs remain over 1.50 inches. Any spot that sees repeated showers could see flooding of poor drainage or urban areas. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... With the upper level low moving across the area, there should be fairly widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms on Monday. Will need to watch for some localized flooding, especially within urban and low lying areas. It will remain cloudy and muggy with temps in the 70s, along with the widespread showers and thunderstorms. Precip will start to wind down on Monday night into early Tuesday as the upper level low starts to depart off to the east. There are still some questions regarding the exact exit of this system, although the threat for showers should be decreasing through the day on Tuesday with clearing skies. Once this storm exits, it will be noticeably less humid, with cooler and drier air in place for the rest of the week. Daytime temps will only be in the 70s, with 50s at night (some 40s across the higher terrain). This will make for much more comfortable weather through the rest of the upcoming week with no weather hazards expected. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions will give way to potential MVFR and spotty IFR conditions overnight for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF, as low stratus forms due to the return flow due to the retreating sfc high east of Maine and the approaching mid and upper level trough from the west. Some mid and high clouds will also increase from the west overnight. The stratus will likely form at KPSF/KPOU between 06Z-09Z/SAT and 08Z-11Z/SAT for KGFL and KALB. Cigs will be mainly 1-2.5 kft AGL with some IFR cigs possible at KPSF. We were less confident for IFR cigs at KGFL/KPOU. We did put some patchy mist at KGFL/KPSF in the MVFR range. The low stratus will gradually erode between 13Z-16Z/SAT. Some higher stratus or mid level clouds will continue in the VFR range at all the TAF sites with some scattered showers possibly reaching KALB/KGFL after 20Z/SAT with MVFR cigs/vsbys. We used a VCSH group or PROB30 for now. Later TAFs can refine the shower timing. Winds will be light from the southeast at 7 KT or less tonight. The winds will increase from the southeast to south at 5-10 KT in the late morning. Expect south/southeast winds 8-12 KT in the afternoon with some gusts around 20 KT at KALB. Outlook... Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Wasula NEAR TERM...Frugis/Wasula SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Wasula