808
FXUS61 KALY 170001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
801 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will increase tonight, as an upper level
disturbance approaches the area from the west.  Some showers and
thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday, although there will be a
better chance with more widespread showers and thunderstorms for
Sunday into Monday. Behind this system, cooler and less humid
weather with dry conditions is expected for Tuesday through much of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 722 PM EDT...The isolated showers and thunderstorms over
the western New England higher terrain have diminished. All the
PoPs were removed. High clouds continue to increase from the
south and west associated with the mid and upper level trough. A
thin veil of smoke continues over the region from the Canadian
fires. Some changes to sky cover, PoPs/WX and diurnal T/TD
trends with the this update. A mild night is expected with lows
mainly in the 60s.

PREV DISCUSSION [0336 pm EDT]...

During the overnight hours, it should stay dry across the area.
As the high pressure area departs and the ridge axis shifts
eastward, the low level flow will increase out of the south.
This may allow for some patches of low stratus clouds to start
moving northward for later in the overnight, although the exact
extent and coverage of this is still in question. Otherwise, it
should stay fairly quiet with lows falling into the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
On Saturday, a large and slow moving cutoff upper level low will
be moving across the Great Lakes. As this system slowly heads
towards the area, clouds will be increasing through the day on
Saturday. Surface warm front will be located southwest of area,
but it should not reach the area through the day on Saturday.

Despite some clouds, there should be enough breaks of sun to
allow for daytime temps to reach the upper 70s to low 80s across
the area. With the moist southerly flow, it will be rather
muggy with dewpoints well into the 60s. CAMs suggest there will
be a chance for some showers to start spreading into the area
during the day on Saturday, especially by afternoon and evening.
However, the coverage looks only isolated to scattered and most
of this activity should be for areas west of the Hudson Valley.
The heaviest downpours should remain west of the area on
Saturday, so no threat for any flooding or stronger storms is
expected on Saturday.

With the moist southerly flow, it looks fairly cloudy for
Saturday night. There could be a more showers moving into the
area on Saturday night, but the best forcing will continue to
remain west of the area.

On Sunday, the large upper level low will be a little closer to
the area, but still remain west of the area over the eastern
Great Lakes. The surface occluded boundary and warm front will
continue to remain west and southwest of the area, so our area
will be still ahead of the strongest lift and out of the better
instability as well. As a result, there will be some more
showers and t-storms around on Sunday compared to Saturday, but
the heaviest and more widespread activity will still be west of
the area. There will be a decent amount of cloud cover around,
so temps will be held into the 70s and it will continue to
remain fairly muggy.

As the upper level low pushes into western New York, there will
continue to be showers and t-storms around on Sunday night. Some
heaviest downpours are expected to occur, as the activity
becomes more widespread and PWATs remain over 1.50 inches. Any
spot that sees repeated showers could see flooding of poor
drainage or urban areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
With the upper level low moving across the area, there should be
fairly widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms on Monday.
Will need to watch for some localized flooding, especially
within urban and low lying areas. It will remain cloudy and
muggy with temps in the 70s, along with the widespread showers
and thunderstorms.

Precip will start to wind down on Monday night into early
Tuesday as the upper level low starts to depart off to the east.
There are still some questions regarding the exact exit of this
system, although the threat for showers should be decreasing
through the day on Tuesday with clearing skies.

Once this storm exits, it will be noticeably less humid, with
cooler and drier air in place for the rest of the week. Daytime
temps will only be in the 70s, with 50s at night (some 40s
across the higher terrain). This will make for much more
comfortable weather through the rest of the upcoming week with
no weather hazards expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions will give way to potential
MVFR and spotty IFR conditions overnight for
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF, as low stratus forms due to the return
flow due to the retreating sfc high east of Maine and the
approaching mid and upper level trough from the west. Some mid
and high clouds will also increase from the west overnight.

The stratus will likely form at KPSF/KPOU between 06Z-09Z/SAT
and 08Z-11Z/SAT for KGFL and KALB. Cigs will be mainly 1-2.5
kft AGL with some IFR cigs possible at KPSF. We were less
confident for IFR cigs at KGFL/KPOU. We did put some patchy mist
at KGFL/KPSF in the MVFR range. The low stratus will gradually
erode between 13Z-16Z/SAT. Some higher stratus or mid level
clouds will continue in the VFR range at all the TAF sites with
some scattered showers possibly reaching KALB/KGFL after
20Z/SAT with MVFR cigs/vsbys. We used a VCSH group or PROB30 for
now. Later TAFs can refine the shower timing.

Winds will be light from the southeast at 7 KT or less tonight.
The winds will increase from the southeast to south at 5-10 KT
in the late morning. Expect south/southeast winds 8-12 KT in the
afternoon with some gusts around 20 KT at KALB.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Wasula