985
FXUS61 KALY 172010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
410 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is
anticipated this afternoon along and ahead of a cold frontal passage
through the region. More tranquil, seasonable weather is expected
after the front passes through tonight as high pressure builds into
the region from the west. The next chances for showers and
thunderstorms comes early to middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
** A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect until 8 PM for
 much of the Capital Region, Eastern Catskills, Mid-Hudson
 Valley, and western New England. The primary threat is likely
 to be strong to potentially damaging wind gusts.**

** Heat Advisory will remain in effect for Hudson Valley from
 southern Saratoga County south through Poughkeepsie, and also
 for southern Litchfield County for until 6 PM EDT today **

Showers and thunderstorms are underway across much of eastern
New York and western New England as water vapor imagery shows an
upper-level trough digging farther south and east into the
Midwest and a surface cold front associated with a low pressure
system tracking east across southeast Canada continues to
approach from the northwest. Most of the convection lies within,
south and east of the Capital District where SBCAPE values of 1500
to 2000 J/kg intersects low-level lapse rates of 6.5 to about 7
C/km and deep layer shear of 40 kt. Some locally strong wind
gusts have been reported in association with storms along with
locally heavy downpours.

There are some differences amongst the latest CAMs in terms of
the depiction of storms for the remainder of the afternoon,
however, general consensus continues to highlight the Capital
District south and east as the main areas of concern for seeing
strong to potentially severe thunderstorms through the remainder
of the afternoon and into tonight. Steeper low-level lapse
rates, moderate instability, and modest DCAPE will continue to
support the potential for locally strong to potentially damaging
wind gusts within these storms. Additionally, most showers and
storms will be capable of producing heavy downpours that could
lead to ponding of water in the typical urban and poor drainage
areas. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will remain in effect until 8
PM.

The aforementioned cold front will continue to track south and
east throughout the night as its parent low follows along its
eastwardly track and the associated upper-level trough continues
to dig south and east toward the Ohio Valley. The loss of
daytime heating will decrease the threat for severe
thunderstorms after 8 PM, but some embedded rumbles of thunder
will remain possible before midnight. Some scattered showers
will remain possible through early tomorrow morning but will
gradually decrease in coverage before dry conditions return by
daybreak. Low temperatures overnight will fall to the upper 50s
to low 60s above 1000 ft with mid to upper 60s elsewhere. ]

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned cold front will exit the region to the south
and east early tomorrow morning, yielding drier, cooler
conditions across eastern New York and western New England. With
upper-level troughing persisting throughout the day tomorrow,
some wrap around moisture could lead to some showers developing
in the Southwest Adirondacks tomorrow afternoon but the
remainder of the area should remain dry. High temperatures
tomorrow will be much more comfortable than recent days with mid
to upper 70s at higher elevations and low to possibly mid 80s
(Mid-Hudson Valley). Additionally, the drier airmass that will
be inflicted with the cold frontal passage will keep humidity
low.

The remainder of the short term period will remain tranquil and
comfortable with high pressure building in from the west
beginning tomorrow afternoon. A break from the heat will
continue Friday with high temperatures similar to Thursday at
mid/upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Adjacent high pressure will ensure mainly dry conditions through
Monday, though a few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm
or two will be possible north of Albany Sunday as a weak cold front
sinks south through the region as it`s parent low pressure system
pushes eastward across southeast Canada. High temperatures Saturday
through Monday look to range from the mid/upper 70s to low 80s above
1000 ft with mid to upper 80s elsewhere. Lows Saturday night
through Monday night will be in the 50s and 60s.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms then increase heading into
Tuesday as a warm front approaches from the south and a cold front
from the north. Differences in the guidance have make for sufficient
uncertainty at this time to maintain a maximum of slight to chance
PoPs through Tuesday. High temperatures Tuesday look to be similar
to Saturday through Monday with upper 70s at higher elevations and
mid/upper 80s elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18z/Thu...Round of showers and thunderstorms will
continue to cross the TAF sites through 00z/Thu with occasional
reductions to IFR/MVFR possible in any thunderstorm. Brief wind
gusts up to 30 - 50 kts are also possible during any severe
thunderstorm. Between 21 and 03 UTC/Thu, some lingering light
rain showers will be possible with brief reductions to MVFR
ceilings possible, mainly at POU and PSF.

After 06 UTC, clouds should clear and with light winds in place,
there is potential for patchy fog to develop between 06 UTC and
10 UTC, especially at PSF and POU. Any fog should dissipate
shortly after sunrise.

Southwest to westerly winds will remain sustained 5 to 15kts
with gusts up to 20-25kts. Stronger gusts briefly possible
during any severe weather. Winds turn and variable after 00
UTC/Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for CTZ013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064>066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Speciale