417
FXUS61 KALY 171747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
147 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is
anticipated this afternoon along and ahead of a cold frontal passage
through the region. More tranquil, seasonable weather is expected
after the front passes through tonight as high pressure builds into
the region from the west. The next chances for showers and
thunderstorms comes early to middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
** Heat Advisory in effect for Hudson Valley from southern
 Saratoga County south through Poughkeepsie, and also for
 southern Litchfield County for Noon until 6 PM EDT today **

** A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect until 8 PM for
 much of the Capital Region, Eastern Catskills, Mid-Hudson
 Valley, and western New England. The primary threat is likely
 to be strong to potentially damaging wind gusts.**

.UPDATE...As of 145 PM...Thunderstorms have begun sooner than
previously anticipated this afternoon across portions of eastern
New York and western New England with the cold front continuing
to sag farther south and east. Broken lines of strong to
potentially severe thunderstorms are expected to continue
throughout the afternoon and into this evening mainly within and
south and east of the Capital Region which has led to the
issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch by the Storm Prediction
Center until 8 PM. The main threat will be strong to damaging
wind gusts, though heavy downpours leading to ponding of water
are also expected. While the main change with this update was
the watch issuance, additional minor updates were made to the
temperatures and PoPs to account for latest trends and obs. All
else remains status quo.

[PREVIOUS 353 AM EDT]...As of 350 AM EDT, clear to partly
cloudy skies continue across the region with some patchy fog
developing within portions of the Mohawk Valley. Fog may also
develop across portions of the upper Hudson Valley and within
the Housatonic Valley closer to daybreak as winds trend to calm.

Another active day is expected, although coverage of
severe thunderstorms should be less compared to Tuesday, as
low/mid level wind fields will be weaker without the added
benefit of an MCV.

Nevertheless, as a cold front approaches from the west, isolated
to scattered showers/thunderstorms should develop later this
morning across western/central NY and track eastward into the
region. Overall instability parameters look a little less than
Monday, with HREF mean MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg for areas
north and west of Albany, and generally around or slightly over
1000 J/kg from Albany south and east, although some pockets of
1500-2000 J/kg could develop across portions of the mid Hudson
Valley and NW CT where slightly higher dewpoints may occur prior
to convective initiation.

Although 0-6 km shear remains modest, generally 30-40 KT with
highest values across northern areas, low level shear is
considerably less, with 0-1 km SRH generally remaining below 75
m2/s2.

SPC has placed areas from the Capital Region south and east,
including southern VT, within a Slight Risk for severe
thunderstorms, with a Marginal Risk extending N and W of this
area excluding far northern Herkimer/Hamilton Cos. Isolated to
scattered damaging wind gusts will be the main severe
thunderstorm hazard, with general thunderstorm mode expected to
be multicellular clusters, with some embedded bowing segments
possible.

Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible with any
thunderstorms given PWAT`s approaching 2". Isolated flash
flooding could occur where multiple rounds of heavy downpours
occur.

Have sided with the warmer 2-meter temps from the HRRR/RAP13 for
today (and similar to the NBM numbers), with upper 80s to lower
90s in most of the Hudson Valley, and mid/upper 80s within the
Mohawk and CT River Valleys, and upper 70s to lower 80s across
the SW Adirondacks and other higher elevations. Dewpoints should
drop into the mid/upper 60s this afternoon, yielding heat
indices in the mid/upper 90s for much of the Hudson River Valley
from the Capital Region southward, as well as across southern
Litchfield County, where a heat advisory has been issued from
Noon until 6 PM EDT today. Afternoon convection should allow for
some cooling to drop heat indices back into the 80s in these
areas by late afternoon/early evening, hence the slightly
earlier end time of the advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Scattered showers/thunderstorms may continue through this
evening, especially for areas south and east of the Capital
Region. Showers should taper off from NW to SE after midnight,
although could linger until daybreak across portions of the mid
Hudson Valley and NW CT. Lows mainly in the 60s, with some 50s
across the SW Adirondacks.

High pressure builds into the region for Thursday into Friday,
bringing significantly less humid conditions and cooler
temperatures. Upper level trough could spark isolated showers
across portions of the southern Adirondacks Thursday afternoon,
otherwise mainly dry through Friday night.

High temperatures Thursday and Friday generally in the upper 70s
to lower/mid 80s in valleys, and lower/mid 70s across higher
terrain areas. Lows Thursday night mainly in the 50s, with some
40s possible across portions of the SW Adirondacks and higher
terrain areas of the eastern Catskills and southern VT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mostly sunny and seasonable warm Saturday, then a weak
reinforcing cold front approaching from the north could allow
for isolated showers/thunderstorms for some areas north of I-90
Sunday afternoon, otherwise mainly dry.

A frontal system south of the region may begin drifting
northward by Tuesday. This could allow for isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms to develop for areas mainly south of I-90
Monday afternoon, and across the remainder of the region Tuesday
afternoon. Humidity levels will also increase by Tuesday as
dewpoints reach back into the 60s.

As for temperatures, expect daytime highs through the period to
reach the mid/upper 80s in valleys, and 75-80 across higher
elevations. Overnight lows mainly in the 50s Saturday morning
with some 40s across the SW Adirondacks. Lows Sunday through
Tuesday morning warming slightly into the lower/mid 60s in
valleys, and mid/upper 50s across the southern Adirondacks and
higher terrain areas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18z/Thu...Round of showers and thunderstorms will
continue to cross the TAF sites through 00z/Thu with occasional
reductions to IFR/MVFR possible in any thunderstorm. Brief wind
gusts up to 30 - 50 kts are also possible during any severe
thunderstorm. Between 21 and 03 UTC/Thu, some lingering light
rain showers will be possible with brief reductions to MVFR
ceilings possible, mainly at POU and PSF.

After 06 UTC, clouds should clear and with light winds in place,
there is potential for patchy fog to develop between 06 UTC and
10 UTC, especially at PSF and POU. Any fog should dissipate
shortly after sunrise.

Southwest to westerly winds will remain sustained 5 to 15kts
with gusts up to 20-25kts. Stronger gusts briefly possible
during any severe weather. Winds turn and variable after 00
UTC/Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for CTZ013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064>066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...Gant/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Speciale