000
FXUS61 KAKQ 121827
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
227 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers remain possible over northeast North Carolina
this afternoon and evening. Through the upcoming week, high
pressure will bring cooler and more comfortable temperatures and
humidity. A few weak disturbances could bring isolated showers
Tuesday and Friday. A cold approaches by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Isolated showers possible in far SE VA and NE NC this afternoon
and evening.

The frontal boundary that sparked showers/storms over the SE the
past two days is now well S of the area over the coastal Carolinas.
High pressure is also slowly building in from the NW, ushering in a
more comfortable/less humid airmass into the area. Aloft, a
seasonably potent upper trough is located over New England. Almost
all of the area is dry this afternoon, though there are a few
isolated showers in the vicinity of the Albemarle Sound. The more
widespread thunderstorm activity is located S of our CWA, in closer
to vicinity to the front and higher instability. Temps range through
80s, with upper 70s in NE NC with the thicker clouds. Additional
isolated showers may develop over far S-central VA and drift into NC
through this evening.

Any residual shower activity diminishes by late this evening.
Overnight lows in the low-mid 60s. Patchy fog could develop well
inland over southern VA and NE NC, though confidence in this is
quite low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures and humidity trend remain on the comfortable side for
mid August.

- Isolated showers are possible over our southwestern counties
Tuesday.

The trough that was over the area today will depart offshore early
Tuesday, leaving WNW flow aloft over the Mid-Atlantic. Another
shortwave will drop ESE in the upper flow early Tuesday. This
feature is likely to bring some increased mid-level cloudiness
across the Piedmont and especially near the NC/VA border. Also could
see a few showers in the morning and early afternoon hours, with the
best chance across our far SW counties of Mecklenburg, Brunswick,
Northampton (NC), and Bertie. CAMs disagree on coverage and
intensity and have 30% PoPs over these far SW counties, bordered by
a 20% PoP that extends NE toward the I-64 corridor. If hi-res models
come into better agreement on higher coverage, these PoPs may need
to be upped more. Regarding highs, went a degree or two below the
NBM where the best chance of showers is (low 80s), with mid 80s
elsewhere. Either way, most of the area should stay mainly dry
Tuesday. A little cooler overnight Tuesday as lows fall into the low-
mid 60s, with even some upper 50s possible NW of Richmond.

The sfc flow turns to the north Wednesday. Global models show an
additional (subtle) shortwave Wednesday, but the thinking is the
area remains dry. Cannot completely rule out a shower over NE NC,
but lower dew points and thus instability suggest coverage will be
very low. Skies will average partly to mostly sunny with highs in
the mid 80s. Remaining seasonably cool Wednesday night with lows in
the low-mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1245 pm EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Slightly below normal temperatures persist to end the week.

- Multiple round of showers return this weekend.

By Friday a vertically stacked low will be slowly making its way out
of the upper mid-west and into the Great lakes. At the surface, cool
high pressure remains centered over the Ohio Valley through mid week
before shifting east by late week. Meanwhile, as the potential low
pressure moves over the Great Lakes and stalls over the north east
this weekend, it will be pushing a cold front through the area.
Thursday has continued to trend dry, however, PopS increase Friday
through Monday as the upper level trough and cold front approach
from the west. PoPs range from 25-40% Fri-Mon night with 35-40% PoPs
areawide on Sunday and Monday. Then by Tuesday morning the
front will have pushed through the area lowering the PoPs. Temps
remain below normal through the week with highs in the mid-
upper 80s Thu, mid 80s Fri, low-mid 80s Sat, and mid-upper 80s
Sun and Mon. Lows range from the mid (locally lower) 60s Thu
night, mid- upper 60s Fri night, and upper 60s to lower 70s Sat
and Sun nights.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Monday...

Low-mid clouds lingering over SE VA and NE NC this aftn, along
with a few spotty showers S of ECG. Cannot rule out an isolated
shower or storm at ECG through this evening. Further N, noting
some patchy CU and SCT high clouds. Expecting all sites to
remain VFR through this afternoon and tonight. Winds are
currently NE 5-10 kt and become light/calm tonight. Patchy fog
is possible well inland tonight over srn VA and NE NC, but is
forecast to remain away from all of the terminals.

Outlook: Additional spotty showers redevelop Tuesday and
Wednesday, but remaining VFR for the most part.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail through the week.

A high pressure ridge is centered over the Middle Atlantic, allowing
for mostly light (less than 10 kt) onshore flow and waves less than
2 ft (1 ft over the bay). This ridge will stay in place through
Wednesday allowing for winds mostly less than 10 kt. By Thursday
evening, the ridge axis will shift offshore allowing winds to turn
to a southerly direction. A gradual increase of southerly winds are
expected Friday and into the weekend as a frontal system over the
Ohio Valley moves toward the area. Still, at this time will keep
winds below small craft advisory criteria.

Seas will remain around 2ft through the week and waves will
generally be 1ft or less. Building swell from any tropical system
(PTC Five) may come as early as Saturday which, if it occurs, will
lead to small craft advisory conditions and increased rip current
risk.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 220 PM EDT Monday...

Have issued a flood warning for the Appomattox River at Mattoax
(MTXV2) as minor flood stage is now forecast to be reached
around 8 AM Monday. For now, the warning goes through 5 PM
Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...MRD
HYDROLOGY...