782
FXUS61 KAKQ 130135
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
935 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Through the upcoming week, high pressure will bring cooler and
more comfortable temperatures and humidity. A few weak
disturbances could bring isolated showers Tuesday and Friday. A
cold approaches by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 935 PM EDT Monday...

Mostly clear and pleasant this evening with temperatures in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. There were some lingering showers over
interior NE NC, which have quickly dissipated over the past
hour. Partly cloudy to mostly clear tonight with lows in the
lower to mid 60s. Patchy fog could develop well inland over
southern VA and NE NC toward sunrise Tuesday, though confidence
in this is quite low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures and humidity trend remain on the comfortable side for
mid August.

- Isolated showers are possible over our southwestern counties
Tuesday.

The trough that was over the area today will depart offshore early
Tuesday, leaving WNW flow aloft over the Mid-Atlantic. Another
shortwave will drop ESE in the upper flow early Tuesday. This
feature is likely to bring some increased mid-level cloudiness
across the Piedmont and especially near the NC/VA border. Also could
see a few showers in the morning and early afternoon hours, with the
best chance across our far SW counties of Mecklenburg, Brunswick,
Northampton (NC), and Bertie. CAMs disagree on coverage and
intensity and have 30% PoPs over these far SW counties, bordered by
a 20% PoP that extends NE toward the I-64 corridor. If hi-res models
come into better agreement on higher coverage, these PoPs may need
to be upped more. Regarding highs, went a degree or two below the
NBM where the best chance of showers is (low 80s), with mid 80s
elsewhere. Either way, most of the area should stay mainly dry
Tuesday. A little cooler overnight Tuesday as lows fall into the low-
mid 60s, with even some upper 50s possible NW of Richmond.

The sfc flow turns to the north Wednesday. Global models show an
additional (subtle) shortwave Wednesday, but the thinking is the
area remains dry. Cannot completely rule out a shower over NE NC,
but lower dew points and thus instability suggest coverage will be
very low. Skies will average partly to mostly sunny with highs in
the mid 80s. Remaining seasonably cool Wednesday night with lows in
the low-mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1245 pm EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Slightly below normal temperatures persist to end the week.

- Multiple round of showers return this weekend.

By Friday a vertically stacked low will be slowly making its way out
of the upper mid-west and into the Great lakes. At the surface, cool
high pressure remains centered over the Ohio Valley through mid week
before shifting east by late week. Meanwhile, as the potential low
pressure moves over the Great Lakes and stalls over the north east
this weekend, it will be pushing a cold front through the area.
Thursday has continued to trend dry, however, PopS increase Friday
through Monday as the upper level trough and cold front approach
from the west. PoPs range from 25-40% Fri-Mon night with 35-40% PoPs
areawide on Sunday and Monday. Then by Tuesday morning the
front will have pushed through the area lowering the PoPs. Temps
remain below normal through the week with highs in the mid-
upper 80s Thu, mid 80s Fri, low-mid 80s Sat, and mid-upper 80s
Sun and Mon. Lows range from the mid (locally lower) 60s Thu
night, mid- upper 60s Fri night, and upper 60s to lower 70s Sat
and Sun nights.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions prevailed as of 00z. A weak boundary dropping S
over interior NE NC has triggered a few showers, but this
activity is expected to remain W of ECG early this evening.
Otherwise, partly cloudy to mostly clear tonight and VFR with a
light and variable wind. Patchy fog is possible around sunrise
Tuesday across s-central VA and interior NE NC, but is forecast
to remain away from the terminals. Another weak disturbance will
track across the region Tuesday bringing SCT-BKN mid and high
clouds along with a minimal chc of showers across southern VA/NE
NC. The wind will mainly be less than 10kt and out of the N to
NE.

Primarily dry and VFR Wednesday and Thursday. A slow moving
cold front will approach from the W Friday and Saturday with a
20-30% chc of aftn/evening showers/tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail through the week.

A high pressure ridge is centered over the Middle Atlantic, allowing
for mostly light (less than 10 kt) onshore flow and waves less than
2 ft (1 ft over the bay). This ridge will stay in place through
Wednesday allowing for winds mostly less than 10 kt. By Thursday
evening, the ridge axis will shift offshore allowing winds to turn
to a southerly direction. A gradual increase of southerly winds are
expected Friday and into the weekend as a frontal system over the
Ohio Valley moves toward the area. Still, at this time will keep
winds below small craft advisory criteria.

Seas will remain around 2ft through the week and waves will
generally be 1ft or less. Building swell from any tropical system
(PTC Five) may come as early as Saturday which, if it occurs, will
lead to small craft advisory conditions and increased rip current
risk.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 220 PM EDT Monday...

Have issued a flood warning for the Appomattox River at Mattoax
(MTXV2) as minor flood stage is now forecast to be reached
around 8 AM Tuesday. For now, the warning goes through 5 PM
Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MRD
HYDROLOGY...AKQ