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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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767 FXUS61 KAKQ 122348 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 748 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated showers remain possible over northeast North Carolina this afternoon and evening. Through the upcoming week, high pressure will bring cooler and more comfortable temperatures and humidity. A few weak disturbances could bring isolated showers Tuesday and Friday. A cold approaches by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 220 PM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Isolated showers possible in far SE VA and NE NC this afternoon and evening. The frontal boundary that sparked showers/storms over the SE the past two days is now well S of the area over the coastal Carolinas. High pressure is also slowly building in from the NW, ushering in a more comfortable/less humid airmass into the area. Aloft, a seasonably potent upper trough is located over New England. Almost all of the area is dry this afternoon, though there are a few isolated showers in the vicinity of the Albemarle Sound. The more widespread thunderstorm activity is located S of our CWA, in closer to vicinity to the front and higher instability. Temps range through 80s, with upper 70s in NE NC with the thicker clouds. Additional isolated showers may develop over far S-central VA and drift into NC through this evening. Any residual shower activity diminishes by late this evening. Overnight lows in the low-mid 60s. Patchy fog could develop well inland over southern VA and NE NC, though confidence in this is quite low. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 220 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Temperatures and humidity trend remain on the comfortable side for mid August. - Isolated showers are possible over our southwestern counties Tuesday. The trough that was over the area today will depart offshore early Tuesday, leaving WNW flow aloft over the Mid-Atlantic. Another shortwave will drop ESE in the upper flow early Tuesday. This feature is likely to bring some increased mid-level cloudiness across the Piedmont and especially near the NC/VA border. Also could see a few showers in the morning and early afternoon hours, with the best chance across our far SW counties of Mecklenburg, Brunswick, Northampton (NC), and Bertie. CAMs disagree on coverage and intensity and have 30% PoPs over these far SW counties, bordered by a 20% PoP that extends NE toward the I-64 corridor. If hi-res models come into better agreement on higher coverage, these PoPs may need to be upped more. Regarding highs, went a degree or two below the NBM where the best chance of showers is (low 80s), with mid 80s elsewhere. Either way, most of the area should stay mainly dry Tuesday. A little cooler overnight Tuesday as lows fall into the low- mid 60s, with even some upper 50s possible NW of Richmond. The sfc flow turns to the north Wednesday. Global models show an additional (subtle) shortwave Wednesday, but the thinking is the area remains dry. Cannot completely rule out a shower over NE NC, but lower dew points and thus instability suggest coverage will be very low. Skies will average partly to mostly sunny with highs in the mid 80s. Remaining seasonably cool Wednesday night with lows in the low-mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1245 pm EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Slightly below normal temperatures persist to end the week. - Multiple round of showers return this weekend. By Friday a vertically stacked low will be slowly making its way out of the upper mid-west and into the Great lakes. At the surface, cool high pressure remains centered over the Ohio Valley through mid week before shifting east by late week. Meanwhile, as the potential low pressure moves over the Great Lakes and stalls over the north east this weekend, it will be pushing a cold front through the area. Thursday has continued to trend dry, however, PopS increase Friday through Monday as the upper level trough and cold front approach from the west. PoPs range from 25-40% Fri-Mon night with 35-40% PoPs areawide on Sunday and Monday. Then by Tuesday morning the front will have pushed through the area lowering the PoPs. Temps remain below normal through the week with highs in the mid- upper 80s Thu, mid 80s Fri, low-mid 80s Sat, and mid-upper 80s Sun and Mon. Lows range from the mid (locally lower) 60s Thu night, mid- upper 60s Fri night, and upper 60s to lower 70s Sat and Sun nights. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 745 PM EDT Monday... VFR conditions prevailed as of 00z. A weak boundary dropping S over interior NE NC has triggered a few showers, but this activity is expected to remain W of ECG early this evening. Otherwise, partly cloudy to mostly clear tonight and VFR with a light and variable wind. Patchy fog is possible around sunrise Tuesday across s-central VA and interior NE NC, but is forecast to remain away from the terminals. Another weak disturbance will track across the region Tuesday bringing SCT-BKN mid and high clouds along with a minimal chc of showers across southern VA/NE NC. The wind will mainly be less than 10kt and out of the N to NE. Primarily dry and VFR Wednesday and Thursday. A slow moving cold front will approach from the W Friday and Saturday with a 20-30% chc of aftn/evening showers/tstms. && .MARINE... As of 220 PM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Sub-SCA conditions prevail through the week. A high pressure ridge is centered over the Middle Atlantic, allowing for mostly light (less than 10 kt) onshore flow and waves less than 2 ft (1 ft over the bay). This ridge will stay in place through Wednesday allowing for winds mostly less than 10 kt. By Thursday evening, the ridge axis will shift offshore allowing winds to turn to a southerly direction. A gradual increase of southerly winds are expected Friday and into the weekend as a frontal system over the Ohio Valley moves toward the area. Still, at this time will keep winds below small craft advisory criteria. Seas will remain around 2ft through the week and waves will generally be 1ft or less. Building swell from any tropical system (PTC Five) may come as early as Saturday which, if it occurs, will lead to small craft advisory conditions and increased rip current risk. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 220 PM EDT Monday... Have issued a flood warning for the Appomattox River at Mattoax (MTXV2) as minor flood stage is now forecast to be reached around 8 AM Tuesday. For now, the warning goes through 5 PM Tuesday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SW NEAR TERM...SW SHORT TERM...SW LONG TERM...HET AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...MRD HYDROLOGY...AKQ