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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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204 FXUS61 KAKQ 130651 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 251 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Through the upcoming week, high pressure will bring cooler and more comfortable temperatures and humidity. A few weak disturbances could bring isolated showers Tuesday and Friday. A cold approaches by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 115 AM EDT Tuesday... Partly cloudy to mostly clear overnight with lows in the lower to mid 60s. Patchy fog could develop well inland over southern VA and NE NC toward sunrise, though confidence in this is quite low. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 220 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Temperatures and humidity trend remain on the comfortable side for mid August. - Isolated showers are possible over our southwestern counties Tuesday. The trough that was over the area today will depart offshore early Tuesday, leaving WNW flow aloft over the Mid-Atlantic. Another shortwave will drop ESE in the upper flow early Tuesday. This feature is likely to bring some increased mid-level cloudiness across the Piedmont and especially near the NC/VA border. Also could see a few showers in the morning and early afternoon hours, with the best chance across our far SW counties of Mecklenburg, Brunswick, Northampton (NC), and Bertie. CAMs disagree on coverage and intensity and have 30% PoPs over these far SW counties, bordered by a 20% PoP that extends NE toward the I-64 corridor. If hi-res models come into better agreement on higher coverage, these PoPs may need to be upped more. Regarding highs, went a degree or two below the NBM where the best chance of showers is (low 80s), with mid 80s elsewhere. Either way, most of the area should stay mainly dry Tuesday. A little cooler overnight Tuesday as lows fall into the low- mid 60s, with even some upper 50s possible NW of Richmond. The sfc flow turns to the north Wednesday. Global models show an additional (subtle) shortwave Wednesday, but the thinking is the area remains dry. Cannot completely rule out a shower over NE NC, but lower dew points and thus instability suggest coverage will be very low. Skies will average partly to mostly sunny with highs in the mid 80s. Remaining seasonably cool Wednesday night with lows in the low-mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1245 pm EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Slightly below normal temperatures persist to end the week. - Multiple round of showers return this weekend. By Friday a vertically stacked low will be slowly making its way out of the upper mid-west and into the Great lakes. At the surface, cool high pressure remains centered over the Ohio Valley through mid week before shifting east by late week. Meanwhile, as the potential low pressure moves over the Great Lakes and stalls over the north east this weekend, it will be pushing a cold front through the area. Thursday has continued to trend dry, however, PopS increase Friday through Monday as the upper level trough and cold front approach from the west. PoPs range from 25-40% Fri-Mon night with 35-40% PoPs areawide on Sunday and Monday. Then by Tuesday morning the front will have pushed through the area lowering the PoPs. Temps remain below normal through the week with highs in the mid- upper 80s Thu, mid 80s Fri, low-mid 80s Sat, and mid-upper 80s Sun and Mon. Lows range from the mid (locally lower) 60s Thu night, mid- upper 60s Fri night, and upper 60s to lower 70s Sat and Sun nights. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 115 AM EDT Tuesday... VFR conditions prevailed as of 06z. Partly cloudy to mostly clear and VFR thru 12z with a light and variable wind. Patchy fog is possible around sunrise across s-central VA and interior NE NC, but is forecast to remain away from the terminals. Another weak disturbance will track across the region later today bringing SCT-BKN mid and high clouds along with a minimal chc of showers across southern VA/NE NC. The wind will mainly be less than 10kt and out of the N to NE. Primarily dry and VFR Wednesday and Thursday. A slow moving cold front will approach from the W Friday and Saturday with a 20-30% chc of aftn/evening showers/tstms. && .MARINE... As of 250 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Message: -Sub-SCA conditions prevail through the week. Early morning sfc analysis indicates high pressure building in over the region from the NW. Thus, winds are rather light with most obs showing less than 5kt out of the west. Seas are still around 2ft and waves are 1ft or less. Winds will generally be 5kt or less through the day. Direction will vary with a sea breeze likely kicking in this afternoon. High pressure will remain in control through most of the week, leading to continued light winds (5-10kt) of varying direction. A cold front gradually approaches the region late in the week into the weekend. Southerly winds likely increase ahead of the front, but look to remain sub-SCA based on 00z guidance. Seas will remain around 2ft through the week and waves will generally be 1ft or less. Will likely see elevated seas over the weekend as swell arrives from a distant (potential) tropical system. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 115 AM EDT Monday... Flood warning for the Appomattox River at Mattoax (MTXV2) continues as minor flood stage (21 ft) is expected to be reached around 8 AM today. Once reached, minor flooding should continue through early this afternoon. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SW NEAR TERM...AJZ/SW SHORT TERM...SW LONG TERM...HET AVIATION...JDM MARINE...AM HYDROLOGY...