204
FXUS61 KAKQ 130651
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
251 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Through the upcoming week, high pressure will bring cooler and
more comfortable temperatures and humidity. A few weak
disturbances could bring isolated showers Tuesday and Friday. A
cold approaches by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 115 AM EDT Tuesday...

Partly cloudy to mostly clear overnight with lows in the lower
to mid 60s. Patchy fog could develop well inland over southern
VA and NE NC toward sunrise, though confidence in this is quite
low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Monday...


Key Messages:

- Temperatures and humidity trend remain on the comfortable side for
mid August.

- Isolated showers are possible over our southwestern counties
Tuesday.

The trough that was over the area today will depart offshore early
Tuesday, leaving WNW flow aloft over the Mid-Atlantic. Another
shortwave will drop ESE in the upper flow early Tuesday. This
feature is likely to bring some increased mid-level cloudiness
across the Piedmont and especially near the NC/VA border. Also could
see a few showers in the morning and early afternoon hours, with the
best chance across our far SW counties of Mecklenburg, Brunswick,
Northampton (NC), and Bertie. CAMs disagree on coverage and
intensity and have 30% PoPs over these far SW counties, bordered by
a 20% PoP that extends NE toward the I-64 corridor. If hi-res models
come into better agreement on higher coverage, these PoPs may need
to be upped more. Regarding highs, went a degree or two below the
NBM where the best chance of showers is (low 80s), with mid 80s
elsewhere. Either way, most of the area should stay mainly dry
Tuesday. A little cooler overnight Tuesday as lows fall into the low-
mid 60s, with even some upper 50s possible NW of Richmond.

The sfc flow turns to the north Wednesday. Global models show an
additional (subtle) shortwave Wednesday, but the thinking is the
area remains dry. Cannot completely rule out a shower over NE NC,
but lower dew points and thus instability suggest coverage will be
very low. Skies will average partly to mostly sunny with highs in
the mid 80s. Remaining seasonably cool Wednesday night with lows in
the low-mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1245 pm EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Slightly below normal temperatures persist to end the week.

- Multiple round of showers return this weekend.

By Friday a vertically stacked low will be slowly making its way out
of the upper mid-west and into the Great lakes. At the surface, cool
high pressure remains centered over the Ohio Valley through mid week
before shifting east by late week. Meanwhile, as the potential low
pressure moves over the Great Lakes and stalls over the north east
this weekend, it will be pushing a cold front through the area.
Thursday has continued to trend dry, however, PopS increase Friday
through Monday as the upper level trough and cold front approach
from the west. PoPs range from 25-40% Fri-Mon night with 35-40% PoPs
areawide on Sunday and Monday. Then by Tuesday morning the
front will have pushed through the area lowering the PoPs. Temps
remain below normal through the week with highs in the mid-
upper 80s Thu, mid 80s Fri, low-mid 80s Sat, and mid-upper 80s
Sun and Mon. Lows range from the mid (locally lower) 60s Thu
night, mid- upper 60s Fri night, and upper 60s to lower 70s Sat
and Sun nights.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 115 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevailed as of 06z. Partly cloudy to mostly
clear and VFR thru 12z with a light and variable wind. Patchy
fog is possible around sunrise across s-central VA and interior
NE NC, but is forecast to remain away from the terminals.
Another weak disturbance will track across the region later today
bringing SCT-BKN mid and high clouds along with a minimal chc
of showers across southern VA/NE NC. The wind will mainly be
less than 10kt and out of the N to NE.

Primarily dry and VFR Wednesday and Thursday. A slow moving
cold front will approach from the W Friday and Saturday with a
20-30% chc of aftn/evening showers/tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

-Sub-SCA conditions prevail through the week.

Early morning sfc analysis indicates high pressure building in over
the region from the NW. Thus, winds are rather light with most obs
showing less than 5kt out of the west. Seas are still around 2ft and
waves are 1ft or less. Winds will generally be 5kt or less through
the day. Direction will vary with a sea breeze likely kicking in
this afternoon. High pressure will remain in control through most of
the week, leading to continued light winds (5-10kt) of varying
direction. A cold front gradually approaches the region late in the
week into the weekend. Southerly winds likely increase ahead of the
front, but look to remain sub-SCA based on 00z guidance. Seas will
remain around 2ft through the week and waves will generally be 1ft
or less. Will likely see elevated seas over the weekend as swell
arrives from a distant (potential) tropical system.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 115 AM EDT Monday...

Flood warning for the Appomattox River at Mattoax (MTXV2)
continues as minor flood stage (21 ft) is expected to be
reached around 8 AM today. Once reached, minor flooding should
continue through early this afternoon.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...AM
HYDROLOGY...