152
FXUS61 KAKQ 071053
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
653 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Chantal across SE NC is poised to move
across North Carolina tonight, bringing showers and a few
embedded storms, primarily to the southern half of the area.
Behind the storm, very warm and humid conditions are expected
for the latter half of next week, with mainly hit or miss type
afternoon and evening showers and storms possible each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 650 AM EDT Monday...

The Flood Watches that were in effect until 12 and 14z in the
piedmont have been cancelled.

Previous Discussion:

Key Message:

- Remnants of Chantal bring heavy rainfall to the area. A Flood
  Watch is in effect for the Northern Neck and portions of the
  MD Eastern Shore today.

Early morning sfc analysis indicates remnant low pressure from
Chantal located near the SW border of the FA. Latest radar shows
steady rain associated with the system along the western border
between Mecklenburg and Prince Edward counties with light, widely
scattered showers across area. The higher rainfall rates are
just now (07z) making it into the local area. As the low
progresses NNE this morning, the steadier, heavier rain will
spread across western portions of the FA. The Flood Watch
currently in effect for most of the piedmont will continue until
12/14z.

As the day progresses, the remnant low will pass through the area
from SW to NE as it continues to weaken; heavy rainfall will
follow along with it. This becomes a bit more concerning late
this morning into the afternoon due to increasing instability
(to ~1500 J/kg) aiding in redevelopment of showers and storms.
The 00z suite of CAMs continue to indicate PWATs climbing to
2.25-2.5" over eastern portions of the area, which will help
achieve those higher rainfall rates near the low. The track of
the low combined with timing of the rising instability suggests
that the focal area for the heaviest rainfall today will be over
the Northern Neck and the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore.
This thinking is supported by the HREF 3-hr PMM QPF which keys
in on these areas with the 3" probs (10-20%). WPC did upgrade
these areas to a slight risk ERO as well. With all this in mind,
went ahead and issued a Flood Watch for 14z-21z. Forecast QPF
is in the 1.5-3" range within the watch, 0.25-1.5" for elsewhere
N of US-460. Given the depth of the moisture, slow storm
motions, and history of the system, there could certainly be
localized areas with higher amounts. Southern portions of the
area may not see much in the way of appreciable rainfall after
daybreak today, but still expecting at least widely scattered
showers. Once the low moves out of the area late this afternoon,
precip should come to an end fairly quickly especially with the
loss of daytime heating. Highs today will be in the upper 80s
in the NE and around 90 elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Normal July weather is expected with hot, humid weather and daily
storm chances.

Tues marks the return of typical July weather: hot and humid with
daily thunderstorm chances. A weak sfc front will approach the
region from the north then stall out just N of the FA and remain
more or less in place for the rest of the week. Highs on Tues will
be in the mid 90s with heat indices approaching 105 for much of the
area (primarily E). While a heat advy may be needed, decided to hold
off with this package since meeting criteria may come down to timing
of storm development. Expecting scattered storms across the area
with highest coverage in the NW in the afternoon, shifting over to
the Eastern Shore later in the evening. SPC does have just about the
entire area in a Marginal Risk for damaging wind gusts. However,
confidence is low since the flow aloft looks rather week and storms
will be relying on large amounts of instability to strengthen. Wed
looks a couple of degrees cooler with highs in the low 90s. Storm
coverage will probably be higher on Wed across the whole area given
increased flow aloft as the axis of a weak trough moves toward the
region. Heavy rain and isolated flooding will of course be possible
and the area is in a Marginal ERO both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Staying near normal through the end of the week with mainly
afternoon/evening storm chances.

The warm and unsettled pattern continues to end the week and into
the weekend. Highs each day will be around norms for this time of
year i.e. upper 80s/around 90. We will continue to see diurnal
showers and thunderstorms each day through Sun. Thurs looks like the
highest coverage day of the period as of now owing to potential
development of weak low pressure near the FA/along the front.
Will say that exact details are difficult to tease out at this
point since a lot of it will depend on where the weak front goes
and when, plus the weaker flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Monday...

TD Chantal is centered near the SW portion of the forecast area
as of 11z. The remnant low of Chantal is expected to lift NE
across the region through ~21z today, and nudging off the coast
thereafter. Continuing to see degraded conditions with MVFR
CIGs. MVFR and occasional IFR conditions (cigs and vsby) are
expected to continue through the morning as showers move across
the terminals. These showers and degraded flight conditions
move toward the coast later this morning and linger into early
aftn. Heavy rain is expected and which may reduce vsbys.
Embedded thunder is possible. The wind will generally be E to SE
ahead of the low, and shifts to SW as the low departs, with
gusts to around 20kt possible toward the coast.

Very warm and humid conditions follow for Tuesday through
Friday, with late day and evening showers/tstms possible, along
with some early morning ground fog/stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 215 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs have been issued for the northern coastal waters until 1 AM
  tonight to account for elevated seas.

- The SCAs have been extended until the afternoon/evening for
  the southern coastal waters, Lower Chesapeake Bay, and
  Currituck Sound. An SCA has been issued for the Lower James
  River until 4 PM this afternoon.

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail Tuesday-Friday with daily thunderstorm
  chances.

- A Moderate Rip Current Risk remains in place for all beaches today
  and Tuesday.

Early morning wx analysis shows TD Chantal lifting NNE near the VA-
NC border (well inland). Winds are SE at 10-20 kt on the waters,
with ~4 ft seas and 2-3 ft waves. The remnants of Chantal slowly
track to the NE today (and into the Lower Eastern Shore by late
aftn). This will allow winds to gradually veer to the south today
and increase to 15-20 kt (highest on the ocean...but frequent 20 kt
gusts are likely on the Lower Bay/Lower James during the day). In
addition, seas build to 4-5 ft (perhaps 6 ft 20 nm offshore of Ocean
City, MD). Therefore, have extended the SCAs for the ocean until 7
PM-1 AM, and lower bay/Currituck Sound until 4 PM. Have also issued
an SCA for the Lower James until 4 PM. Winds are forecast diminish
tonight/Tuesday as the low slowly exits (although a brief wind surge
to near SCA levels is possible on the bay/Lower James tonight).
However, 5 ft seas may linger across the northern coastal
waters through part of tonight (that is why the SCAs were
extended until 1 AM for the coastal waters N of Cape Charles).
Variable, but prevailing sub- SCA, marine conditions return from
Tuesday through Friday with afternoon sea breezes and more
typical summertime diurnally- driven shower/storm activity.

Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk of rip currents continues across all
beaches today and Tuesday. This is due to ~3 ft nearshore waves and
high period swell with periods up to 15 seconds possible.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flood Watch from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this afternoon
     for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this afternoon
     for VAZ075>078-085-521-522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ632>634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET/MAM
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AJZ/AC
MARINE...ERI/MAM