907
FXUS61 KAKQ 131008
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
608 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Tranquil weather conditions and comfortable humidity levels are
expected through the end of the week as surface high pressure
resides over the region. Precipitation chances return late
Friday into the weekend as a slow moving area of low pressure
and series of fronts cross the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 600 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures and humidity trend remain on the comfortable side for
  mid August.

- Isolated showers are possible today, mainly over the Piedmont
  and southside VA into interior northeast NC.

A weak disturbance will drop ESE in the upper flow this morning
and bring some increased mid-level cloudiness to much of the
area today. This disturbance looks like it will also touch off
isolated showers across the Piedmont this morning (per latest
radar trends) and then a better chance for a few showers late
this morning into the afternoon hours for southside VA and NE NC.
Have 30% PoPs over the far SW counties, bordered by a 20% PoP
that extends NE to an FVX-AKQ-SFQ line. High temps today will
be in the low to mid 80s (nr 80 beaches).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday...

Comfortable tonight with lows in the low to mid 60s, with even
some upper 50s possible NW of Richmond.

The sfc flow turns to the north Wednesday. Global models show an
additional (subtle) shortwave Wednesday, but the thinking is the
area remains dry. Cannot completely rule out a shower over NE NC,
but lower dew points and thus instability suggest coverage will be
very low. Skies will average partly to mostly sunny with highs in
the mid 80s. Remaining seasonably cool Wednesday night with lows in
the low-mid 60s.

Under the influence of NW flow, Thursday will be a touch warmer
(seasonable) with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Look for a
mostly sunny sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Precipitation chances return this weekend.

By Friday a vertically stacked low will be slowly making its way out
of the upper mid-west and into the Great lakes. At the surface, cool
high pressure remains centered over the Ohio Valley through mid week
before shifting east by late week. Meanwhile, as the potential low
pressure moves over the Great Lakes and stalls over the northeast
this weekend, it will be pushing a cold front through the area.
Thursday has continued to trend dry, however, PoPs increase
Friday through Monday as the upper level trough and cold front
approach from the west. PoPs range from 25-40% late Fri-Mon
night with 30-40% PoPs areawide on Sunday and Monday. Then by
Tuesday morning the front will have pushed through the area
lowering the PoPs. Temps remain seasonable to a little below
normal through the weekend with highs in the mid-upper 80s Thu,
mid 80s Fri, low-mid 80s Sat, and mid-upper 80s Sun and Mon.
Lows range from the mid (locally lower) 60s Thu night, mid-
upper 60s Fri night, and upper 60s to lower 70s Sat and Sun
nights.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 600 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 12z TAF period. A weak
disturbance will track across the region today bringing BKN
(occasional OVC) mid and high clouds, along with a minimal chc
of showers across the Piedmont and southside VA and interior NE
NC. The wind will mainly be less than 10kt and out of the N to
NE.

Primarily dry and VFR Wednesday and Thursday. A slow moving
cold front will approach from the W Friday and Saturday with a
20-30% chc of aftn/evening showers/tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

-Sub-SCA conditions prevail through the week.

Early morning sfc analysis indicates high pressure building in over
the region from the NW. Thus, winds are rather light with most obs
showing less than 5kt out of the west. Seas are still around 2ft and
waves are 1ft or less. Winds will generally be 5kt or less through
the day. Direction will vary with a sea breeze likely kicking in
this afternoon. High pressure will remain in control through most of
the week, leading to continued light winds (5-10kt) of varying
direction. A cold front gradually approaches the region late in the
week into the weekend. Southerly winds likely increase ahead of the
front, but look to remain sub-SCA based on 00z guidance. Seas will
remain around 2ft through the week and waves will generally be 1ft
or less. Will likely see elevated seas over the weekend as swell
arrives from a distant (potential) tropical system.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 600 AM EDT Monday...

Flood warning for the Appomattox River at Mattoax (MTXV2)
continues as minor flood stage (21 ft) has been reached. The
river level should fall back below flood stage this afternoon.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/SW
LONG TERM...HET/JDM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...AM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ