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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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090 FXUS61 KAKQ 132347 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 747 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Tranquil weather conditions and comfortable humidity levels are expected through the end of the week, as surface high pressure resides over the region. Precipitation chances return late Friday into the weekend as a slow moving area of low pressure and series of fronts cross the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 225 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Temperatures and humidity trend remain on the comfortable side for mid August. - Isolated showers are possible through early this afternoon, mainly over the Piedmont and southside VA into interior northeast NC. Latest analysis shows a weak mid-level low across the western Carolinas, with a subtle inverted sfc trough in place along the coastal plain. To the west, 1020mb sfc high pressure remained in place centered over the OH River Valley into the interior northeast. Mid- level low will continue to drop E-SE in the upper flow through the afternoon, with mainly SCT- BKN clouds NW and BKN- OVC clouds SE. Some weak residual overrunning moisture ahead of the mid- level low will result in some lingering isolated showers across S/SE VA into NE NC. The sky has started to clear out across the NW piedmont and will gradually brighten and eventually clear out from NW to SE behind the shortwave for the remainder of the area through the balance of this afternoon. High temps in the low to mid 80s (~80 beaches). Mainly clear to start this evening. Some additional mid to high clouds from time to time as additional perturbations drop across the region in W-NW flow aloft. Comfortable temperatures tonight with early morning lows in the low to mid 60s, with even some upper 50s possible N-NW of Richmond. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 225 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Mix of sun and clouds again Wednesday. A stray shower or two is possible, but mainly dry with near-seasonable temperatures. - Warmer and remaining dry for Thursday. Flow aloft becomes W-NW tomorrow, as the base of the upper trough drops through the region. Additional shortwave energy embedded in the upper trough will rotate through, allowing for a mix of sun and clouds once again. Cannot completely rule out a rogue shower or two, but dewpoint depressions will be even greater, and as PW values lower once again, expect areal coverage of any showers will be quite low, and have therefore kept the forecast dry for now. Surface high pressure builds over the area from the Ohio Valley, allowing for winds to veer around to the NNW with decreasing clouds once again in the afternoon and evening. Remaining near to just below climo, with highs mainly in the mid 80s. Remaining seasonably cool Wednesday night with lows in the low- mid 60s. Under the influence of continued NW flow, Thursday will be a touch warmer/more seasonable with highs in the mid to upper 80s under a mostly sunny sky. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 225 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Precipitation chances return Friday into this weekend. By Friday, a vertically stacked low will be slowly making its way out of the upper midwest and into the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a strong heat ridge (~598dm) will develop across the desert southwest into the plains states. At the surface, cool high pressure remains centered over the Ohio Valley through mid week before shifting east by late week. Meanwhile, as low pressure moves over the Great Lakes and stalls over the northeast this weekend, it will slowly push a cold front toward the area, with the front likely to become hung up along the coast late Mon/Tue of next week. Overall trend of the 12z cycle was to slow down onset of PoPs slightly. Rain chances increase gradually from Friday through Monday, as the cold front and the parent upper trough approach from the west. PoPs range from 20-30% late Fri-Saturday and 30-40% Sun-Mon night. By Tuesday morning the front will have pushed through much of the area, resulting in slight moderation to temperatures and lingering PoPs along the coast. Temps remain seasonable through the weekend with highs in the mid- upper 80s away from the immediate coast. Lows range from the mid (locally lower) 60s Thu night, mid- upper 60s Fri night, upper 60s to lower 70s Sat and Sun nights, and 65-70 Mon/Tue nights. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 745 PM EDT Tuesday... Weak high pressure prevailed as of 00z with a weak disturbance passing across eastern NC. VFR with FEW-SCT mid and high clouds. VFR conditions continue tonight into Wednesday. Passing mid and high clouds are expected overnight with a calm to very light wind. SCT late morning through aftn CU with bases of 6-8kft are expected Wednesday with a N to NE wind less than 10kt. Primarily dry and VFR Wednesday night into Thursday. A slow moving cold front will approach from the W late Friday through Sunday with a low-end chc aftn/evening showers/tstms each day. && .MARINE... As of 225 PM EDT Tuesday... - Benign boating conditions expected to continue until high pressure moves offshore late week into the weekend. 1020mb high pressure is centered over the upper Midwest this afternoon. Local winds are generally N or NW around 5 kt. Waves are around 1 foot in the bay with seas 1-2 ft. Quiet marine conditions are expected this evening and through much of the week as high pressure remains near/over the region. Wind direction will vary through the period and local speed enhancements near-shore during the afternoon/early evening sea breeze peak can be expected but wind magnitude should remain below SCA thresholds. High pressure finally moves offshore Friday into the weekend with a modestly tightening pressure gradient ahead of low pressure near the Great Lakes. Brief/marginal SCA conditions are possible in the Ches Bay during this period. Seas for the offshore waters are a bit tricky with TC Ernesto forecast to lift northward well off the coast late week and especially this weekend. Will show waves around 1 ft and seas ~2 ft through the first half of Friday. Thereafter, seas increase to 4-6 ft N and 3-5 ft S as swells reach the coast. Guidance suggests the highest seas will get here on Sunday but the overall magnitude depends heavily on the strength and timing of Ernesto so will hold off on going any higher for now. Regardless, a period of SCA conditions is likely for the offshore zones and mouth of the bay this weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 225 PM EDT Tuesday... Flood warning continues for the Appomattox River at Mattoax (MTXV2) continues as minor flood stage (21 ft) has been reached. The river level should fall back below flood stage by late this evening. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...JDM/MAM AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...AM HYDROLOGY...AKQ