090
FXUS61 KAKQ 132347
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
747 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Tranquil weather conditions and comfortable humidity levels are
expected through the end of the week, as surface high pressure
resides over the region. Precipitation chances return late
Friday into the weekend as a slow moving area of low pressure
and series of fronts cross the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 225 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures and humidity trend remain on the comfortable side for
  mid August.

- Isolated showers are possible through early this afternoon,
  mainly over the Piedmont and southside VA into interior
  northeast NC.

Latest analysis shows a weak mid-level low across the western
Carolinas, with a subtle inverted sfc trough in place along the
coastal plain. To the west, 1020mb sfc high pressure remained in
place centered over the OH River Valley into the interior
northeast. Mid- level low will continue to drop E-SE in the
upper flow through the afternoon, with mainly SCT- BKN clouds NW
and BKN- OVC clouds SE. Some weak residual overrunning moisture
ahead of the mid- level low will result in some lingering
isolated showers across S/SE VA into NE NC. The sky has started
to clear out across the NW piedmont and will gradually brighten
and eventually clear out from NW to SE behind the shortwave for
the remainder of the area through the balance of this afternoon.
High temps in the low to mid 80s (~80 beaches).

Mainly clear to start this evening. Some additional mid to high
clouds from time to time as additional perturbations drop across
the region in W-NW flow aloft. Comfortable temperatures tonight
with early morning lows in the low to mid 60s, with even some
upper 50s possible N-NW of Richmond.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 225 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Mix of sun and clouds again Wednesday. A stray shower or two
  is possible, but mainly dry with near-seasonable temperatures.

- Warmer and remaining dry for Thursday.

Flow aloft becomes W-NW tomorrow, as the base of the upper
trough drops through the region. Additional shortwave energy
embedded in the upper trough will rotate through, allowing for a
mix of sun and clouds once again. Cannot completely rule out a
rogue shower or two, but dewpoint depressions will be even
greater, and as PW values lower once again, expect areal
coverage of any showers will be quite low, and have therefore
kept the forecast dry for now. Surface high pressure builds over
the area from the Ohio Valley, allowing for winds to veer around
to the NNW with decreasing clouds once again in the afternoon
and evening. Remaining near to just below climo, with highs
mainly in the mid 80s. Remaining seasonably cool Wednesday night
with lows in the low- mid 60s.

Under the influence of continued NW flow, Thursday will be a
touch warmer/more seasonable with highs in the mid to upper 80s
under a mostly sunny sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 225 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Precipitation chances return Friday into this weekend.

By Friday,  a vertically stacked low will be slowly making its
way out of the upper midwest and into the Great Lakes.
Meanwhile, a strong heat ridge (~598dm) will develop across the
desert southwest into the plains states. At the surface, cool
high pressure remains centered over the Ohio Valley through mid
week before shifting east by late week. Meanwhile, as low
pressure moves over the Great Lakes and stalls over the
northeast this weekend, it will slowly push a cold front toward
the area, with the front likely to become hung up along the
coast late Mon/Tue of next week.

Overall trend of the 12z cycle was to slow down onset of PoPs
slightly. Rain chances increase gradually from Friday through
Monday, as the cold front and the parent upper trough approach
from the west. PoPs range from 20-30% late Fri-Saturday and
30-40% Sun-Mon night. By Tuesday morning the front will have
pushed through much of the area, resulting in slight moderation
to temperatures and lingering PoPs along the coast. Temps
remain seasonable through the weekend with highs in the mid-
upper 80s away from the immediate coast. Lows range from the
mid (locally lower) 60s Thu night, mid- upper 60s Fri night,
upper 60s to lower 70s Sat and Sun nights, and 65-70 Mon/Tue
nights.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Tuesday...

Weak high pressure prevailed as of 00z with a weak disturbance
passing across eastern NC. VFR with FEW-SCT mid and high clouds.
VFR conditions continue tonight into Wednesday. Passing mid and
high clouds are expected overnight with a calm to very light
wind. SCT late morning through aftn CU with bases of 6-8kft are
expected Wednesday with a N to NE wind less than 10kt.

Primarily dry and VFR Wednesday night into Thursday. A slow
moving cold front will approach from the W late Friday through
Sunday with a low-end chc aftn/evening showers/tstms each day.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 225 PM EDT Tuesday...

- Benign boating conditions expected to continue until high
pressure moves offshore late week into the weekend.

1020mb high pressure is centered over the upper Midwest this
afternoon. Local winds are generally N or NW around 5 kt. Waves are
around 1 foot in the bay with seas 1-2 ft.

Quiet marine conditions are expected this evening and through much
of the week as high pressure remains near/over the region. Wind
direction will vary through the period and local speed enhancements
near-shore during the afternoon/early evening sea breeze peak can be
expected but wind magnitude should remain below SCA thresholds. High
pressure finally moves offshore Friday into the weekend with a
modestly tightening pressure gradient ahead of low pressure near the
Great Lakes. Brief/marginal SCA conditions are possible in the Ches
Bay during this period. Seas for the offshore waters are a bit
tricky with TC Ernesto forecast to lift northward well off the coast
late week and especially this weekend. Will show waves around 1 ft
and seas ~2 ft through the first half of Friday. Thereafter, seas
increase to 4-6 ft N and 3-5 ft S as swells reach the coast.
Guidance suggests the highest seas will get here on Sunday but the
overall magnitude depends heavily on the strength and timing of
Ernesto so will hold off on going any higher for now. Regardless, a
period of SCA conditions is likely for the offshore zones and mouth
of the bay this weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 225 PM EDT Tuesday...

Flood warning continues for the Appomattox River at Mattoax
(MTXV2) continues as minor flood stage (21 ft) has been reached.
The river level should fall back below flood stage by late this
evening.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...JDM/MAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ