045
FXUS61 KAKQ 140651
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
251 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Tranquil weather conditions and comfortable humidity levels are
expected through the end of the week, as surface high pressure
resides over the region. Precipitation chances return late
Friday into the weekend as a slow moving area of low pressure
and series of fronts cross the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 945 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures and humidity trend remain on the comfortable side
  for mid August.

Mostly clear and pleasant this evening with temperatures in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Some additional mid to high clouds
develop from time to time overnight as additional perturbations
drop across the region in W-NW flow aloft. Comfortable
temperatures tonight with early morning lows in the low to mid
60s, with even some upper 50s possible N-NW of Richmond.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As of 225 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Mix of sun and clouds again Wednesday. A stray shower or two
  is possible, but mainly dry with near-seasonable temperatures.

- Warmer and remaining dry for Thursday.

Flow aloft becomes W-NW tomorrow, as the base of the upper
trough drops through the region. Additional shortwave energy
embedded in the upper trough will rotate through, allowing for a
mix of sun and clouds once again. Cannot completely rule out a
rogue shower or two, but dewpoint depressions will be even
greater, and as PW values lower once again, expect areal
coverage of any showers will be quite low, and have therefore
kept the forecast dry for now. Surface high pressure builds over
the area from the Ohio Valley, allowing for winds to veer around
to the NNW with decreasing clouds once again in the afternoon
and evening. Remaining near to just below climo, with highs
mainly in the mid 80s. Remaining seasonably cool Wednesday night
with lows in the low- mid 60s.

Under the influence of continued NW flow, Thursday will be a
touch warmer/more seasonable with highs in the mid to upper 80s
under a mostly sunny sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 225 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Precipitation chances return Friday into this weekend.

By Friday,  a vertically stacked low will be slowly making its
way out of the upper midwest and into the Great Lakes.
Meanwhile, a strong heat ridge (~598dm) will develop across the
desert southwest into the plains states. At the surface, cool
high pressure remains centered over the Ohio Valley through mid
week before shifting east by late week. Meanwhile, as low
pressure moves over the Great Lakes and stalls over the
northeast this weekend, it will slowly push a cold front toward
the area, with the front likely to become hung up along the
coast late Mon/Tue of next week.

Overall trend of the 12z cycle was to slow down onset of PoPs
slightly. Rain chances increase gradually from Friday through
Monday, as the cold front and the parent upper trough approach
from the west. PoPs range from 20-30% late Fri-Saturday and
30-40% Sun-Mon night. By Tuesday morning the front will have
pushed through much of the area, resulting in slight moderation
to temperatures and lingering PoPs along the coast. Temps
remain seasonable through the weekend with highs in the mid-
upper 80s away from the immediate coast. Lows range from the
mid (locally lower) 60s Thu night, mid- upper 60s Fri night,
upper 60s to lower 70s Sat and Sun nights, and 65-70 Mon/Tue
nights.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR early this morning with SCT-BKN mid and high clouds. Patchy
fog will be possible in the VA Piedmont and interior NE NC,
perhaps impacting ECG with 5SM BR between 10-12z. Otherwise, any
fog will remain away from the terminals. VFR conditions
expected for the remainder of today into tonight with either a
calm or very light N-NE wind. Some CU with bases of 6-8kft will
develop by late this morning into the afternoon. Low probability
of an isolated shower at KECG this afternoon.

Dry and VFR for Thursday and most of Friday. A slow moving cold
front will approach from the west late Friday through Sunday
with chances for mainly aftn/evening showers/tstms each day.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

-Benign marine conditions continue through the end of the week

-Swell from TC Ernesto arrives over the weekend. SCAs likely for
coastal waters.

High pressure remains in control this morning, leading to benign
marine conditions. Latest obs reflect a W/NW wind at 5-10kt, seas
around 2ft, and waves of 1ft or less. Expect generally lighter winds
to continue through Thursday with a sea breeze developing in the
afternoons. Will likely see temporary enhancements in nearshore
winds during the afternoon/evening, but should still be sub-SCA
levels. A cold front will gradually approach the region Friday
through the weekend, forcing high pressure offshore. The pressure
gradient ahead of the front will tighten up a bit, leading to
increasing southerly winds. Winds looks to generally remain in the
10-15kt range, but cannot rule out brief/marginal SCA-level winds,
especially in the upper bay. Also, swell from TC Ernesto (which will
remain well offshore) will increase seas this weekend into early
next week. Latest guidance brings in 3-6ft seas Saturday, increasing
to 5-7ft Sunday. Conditions gradually improve early next week.
Elevated seas will mean increased rip current risk as well.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday...

Flood warning continues for the Appomattox River at Mattoax
(MTXV2). The river level crested at 22.2ft (minor flood stage
21.0ft) and is beginning to slowly fall. The river should fall
back below flood stage later today.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...JDM/MAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...AM
HYDROLOGY...