457
FXUS61 KAKQ 090722
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
322 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The risk for strong to severe thunderstorms and potential Flash
Flooding continues today. The unsettled pattern is expected to
persist for the rest of the week, with scattered to numerous
afternoon through late evening thunderstorms each day. Near
average temperatures are expected by late this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 320 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Numerous thunderstorms are expected again from late this
  afternoon through early Thursday morning, with the highest
  coverage once again expected to be along and west of I-95 and
  north of I-64.

- Although there is a severe threat today, the main concern with
  the storms will be heavy rain/flooding, given that areas that
  have already seen 1-4" of rain could see localized totals of
  3-4" today. Therefore, a Flood Watch is in effect through
  tonight for the northwest 2/3 of the area.

- The most likely timing for storms is 4-8 PM in the Piedmont,
  7-10 PM along the I-95 Corridor, and after 10 PM closer to
  the Peninsulas and in SE VA/NE NC.

Early morning wx analysis shows an upper trough stretching from the
Great Lakes to the MS River Valley, with upper ridging offshore. A
weakening cold front is still well to our NW. Scattered to numerous
tstms have persisted over the past few hours. While the MCV
responsible for much of yesterday`s convection moved offshore before
midnight, another disturbance right behind it (in WSW flow aloft) is
tracking across VA and is providing the necessary lift for the
ongoing tstms. Some areas have received 2-4" of rain since midnight
(especially from Cumberland County to the RIC Metro where FFWs were
issued). Tstms have finally shown signs of weakening...and expect
the convection to continue to diminish during the next few hours.

While there will be a break in the convection this morning through
early/mid aftn...another round of tstms is expected from late aftn
through around or shortly after midnight. The aforementioned upper
trough is progged to move eastward today, allowing upper heights to
fall across much of the eastern CONUS. While the cold front to our
NW will wash out...an upper disturbance on the southern end of that
trough is progged to cross the area this evening-tonight. Given the
rain that fell over the past 24 hours and a similar environment
(with PWs ~ 2.0"), there is concern for additional flash flooding,
especially across central/south-central VA, the VA Northern Neck,
and MD Eastern Shore. Before any tstms arrive, temperatures will
rise into the lower 90s with heat indices as high as 100-104F. Tstms
will initially develop to our west during the aftn and will be more
widespread across south-central VA than they were yesterday. The
storms may try to develop into a broken line and will likely cross
the Piedmont between 4-8 PM before impacting the I-95 Corridor
between 7-10 PM. The storms will then slowly push toward the coast
around or after 10 PM but should gradually weaken (although they
will likely persist through early Thu AM before completely
dissipating). Isolated tstms are possible across far SE VA and NE NC
this evening, but coverage should not be that high.

Severe wx (mainly damaging winds) is possible...with the best chance
along and west of I-95 where storms will arrive closer to peak
heating. Effective shear will be slightly stronger than yesterday
(around 25 kt north/20 kt south). Despite slightly less heating than
yesterday, there should be enough downdraft potential for localized
damaging wind gusts with DCAPE values of 750-1000 J/kg. SPC has
maintained the Slight Risk (Level 2/5) west, with a Marginal Severe
Risk (Level 1/5) east.

As mentioned previously, the biggest and most concerning threat this
evening is the risk for additional Flash Flooding. With PWs as high
as they will be, the tstms will be capable of producing 2-3" of rain
in an hour or less. Locally, up to 4" fell across the Piedmont,
central VA, and the MD Eastern Shore. These are the same areas that
are expected to see the highest coverage of tstms this evening with
localized rain amounts of 3-4" possible in some of the same
locations. The 00z HREF has 30+% probs of 3" of rain in 3 hours over
the western 2/3 of the area. Given the above, WPC has upgraded areas
from I-95 west to a Moderate Risk (Level 3/4) for excessive
rainfall, which is not particularly common for the local area. A
Marginal to Slight Excessive Rainfall Risk remains in place farther
E/SE where less rain fell and/or is expected. The current Flood
Watch (in effect through tonight) for the NW 2/3 of the area looks
good...and no changes have been made with the overnight package. The
watch covers areas as far SE as Wakefield/Williamsburg/Yorktown.
After storms exit, lows fall into the lower-mid 70s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Numerous thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon through
  late evening on Thursday.

-Scattered thunderstorms are still expected on Friday and Saturday
 as the unsettled pattern continues.

- The flooding threat will be highest on Thursday, but will continue
  on Friday and Saturday.

The upper trough axis crosses the area on Thursday before moving to
our east on Friday. Numerous tstms are expected across much of the
area on Thursday, with the highest coverage shifting a bit to the
south. Temps only warm into the mid 80s-90F...which will lessen the
severe threat (but SPC still has a Marginal Risk for damaging wind
gusts). Given that PWs will still be around 2.0" on Thursday (in
addition to the rain that fell yesterday and is expected today), WPC
has a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across much of the area.
We finally start to see some upper height rises on Friday and
Saturday, but diurnally driven tstms will continue each day
(although coverage will be less than what is expected on Thursday).
Additionally, the swath of 2.0"+ PWs will be shunted to our SE by
Friday/Saturday. So while there is certainly a threat for flooding,
it won`t be as high (or widespread) as what is expected today/Thu.
Temperatures will be around seasonal averages on Fri/Sat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Staying seasonably warm and humid through early next week with
  mainly afternoon/evening storm chances persisting.

A more seasonable (but somewhat unsettled) July weather pattern is
expected late this weekend into early next week. The upper ridge
will try to build back toward the area, with decently fast zonal
flow aloft expected across the northern United States and southern
Canada. This will result in typical diurnal showers and
thunderstorms each day from Sun-Tue. The good news is the storm
coverage will be isolated to perhaps scattered. Exact details are
difficult to pinpoint this far out, but the main concern with any
storms will likely be localized flash flooding given the rain
expected from today-Saturday. Highs each day will be around seasonal
averages for this time of year (upper 80s/around 90F).

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday...

Scattered thunderstorms continue near RIC, and will impact RIC
(and perhaps PHF) between now and 08z. The tstms should
gradually weaken after 08z with mainly VFR conditions expected
until early-mid aftn. Numerous tstms once again develop to our
west during the aftn before moving across the terminals during
the evening (generally between 21-04z). Went ahead and included
PROB30 groups at RIC/SBY/PHF...but have not at ORF/ECG where
confidence in tstms is lower. Any storm will be capable of
producing brief LIFR VSBYs in +RA as well as variable wind gusts
of 25-30+ knots. Outside of storms, winds will range between
5-10 kt from the southwest, though a few gusts to 15 to 20 kts
are not out of the question today as daytime heating ramps up
and allows for better mixing.

Outlook: Mainly VFR outside of storms from tonight-Fri
(although tstms are possible through ~06z Thu). Scattered to
numerous afternoon-late evening tstms are expected on both Thu
and Fri, along with the potential for early morning ground
fog/stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- S and SW winds continue on the western periphery of high pressure
  centered well offshore.

- Another round of showers and strong storms is likely late this
  afternoon into the overnight period.

Gradient between an inland surface trough and high pressure offshore
is resulting in SW winds 10-15 kt. Some lingering convection
continues early this morning but should dissipate over the next few
hours. Waves are 1-2 ft with seas 2-4 ft (highest N).

Sub-SCA conditions are expected today but the gradient tightens up a
bit this evening as the inland/lee trough sharpens. This could
result in a brief period of marginal SCA winds this evening, mainly
in the Ches Bay and lower James River. Local wind probs suggest a 30-
40% chance for sustained 18 kt winds during this period. Will hold
off on issuing any SCA headlines for now as confidence in seeing a
sustained period of SCA conditions is low. SW winds offshore
increase to 15-20 kt this evening with seas building to 3-4 ft north
of Cape Charles. Strong storms will be a concern again this evening
into tonight with slightly better flow aloft than was present
yesterday. Gusty winds and frequent lightning are the main marine
threats from storms this evening. Localized gusts to 50 kt are
possible in the stronger storms and SMWs will be issued as
necessary. Sub-SCA conditions are forecast through the remainder of
the week but afternoon and evening convection is likely again on
both Thursday and Friday.

Low Rip Current Risk at all area beaches today and Thursday. An
increase to Moderate Rip risk is possible for the northern beaches
in subsequent forecasts, however.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flood Watch through late tonight for MDZ021>025.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ064-075>078-084>086-
     517>522.
     Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight
     for VAZ048-060>062-065>069-079>083-087>090-509>516-523.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI/HET
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI
LONG TERM...ERI/HET
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...RHR