929
FXUS61 KAKQ 141624
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1224 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Tranquil weather conditions and comfortable humidity levels are
expected through the end of the week, as surface high pressure
resides over the region. Precipitation chances return late
Friday into the weekend as a slow moving area of low pressure
and series of fronts cross the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1220 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Comfortable temperatures and humidity levels for mid-August.

- Isolated shower or thunderstorm chances for mid to late
  afternoon mainly along/south of US-460 into northern NC.

Latest analysis reveals a weak surface trough in place along
the mid-Atlantic coast. To the northwest, 1020+mb sfc high
pressure remains centered just to our NW over the eastern Great
Lakes. Aloft, the upper trough axis has pushed offshore, with NW
flow continuing to prevail over the region and upper level
ridging building over the Mississippi River Valley into the
upper midwest. Blended TPW Sat imagery and mesoanalysis shows PW
values generally in the 0.8-1.1" range across the region,
highest along the coastal plain. Temperatures mainly in the
upper 70s to mid 80s across the region at midday.

For this afternoon, CAMS are showing the potential for some
isolated showers and storms after 2-3 pm this afternoon, mainly
across the southern third of the forecast area where PW values
remain ~1". Already seeing some SCT CU starting to percolate in
these areas as of this writing, and expect that trend to persist
across southern VA into NC this afternoon.

Any convection quickly tapers with loss of heating this
evening. Still on track today for highs today in the low to mid
80s. Mainly clear and pleasant tonight. Did undercut NBM
guidance by about a category in typical cool spots across the
piedmont, with low to mid 60s for the remainder of the FA. Will
likely have some additional spots of patchy fog/low stratus
toward morning in the piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer and remaining dry for Thursday.

- Precipitation chances return late Friday.

Under the influence of continued NW flow, Thursday will be a
touch warmer/more seasonable with highs in the mid to upper 80s
under a mostly sunny sky. The aforementioned trough axis shifts
out over the western Atlantic and is what will keep Ernesto away
from the East Coast. By late Thursday into midday Friday, an
upper ridge will traverse the local and keep dry conditions in
place. It`s not until late Friday afternoon/Friday evening that
the upper ridge begins to break down in advance of an upper low
and cold front over the Great Lakes. A pre-frontal trough will
likely touch off a few showers and thunderstorms over our NW
counties by late in the day on Friday. Highs will be in the mid
to upper 80s with a modest increase in humidity levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Precipitation chances return over the weekend.

Rain chances increase gradually from Friday night through
Sunday, as the cold front and the parent upper low approach
from the west. PoPs range from 30-40% during this time, then
trend down a bit for Monday and Tuesday. Temps remain
seasonable through early next week with highs in the mid-upper
80s away from the immediate coast. Lows will be in the 60s to
low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1220 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions to begin the 18z TAF period expected through
tonight with either a calm or very light N-NE wind. Some
scattered CU at ORF/PHF/ECG with bases of 6-8kft will persist
this afternoon. Low probability of an isolated shower at KECG
for mid-late afternoon. Some patchy ground fog/low stratus SSW
of terminals over the VA piedmont late tonight into Thu
morning.

Outlook: Dry and VFR for Thursday and most of Friday. A slow
moving cold front will approach from the west late Friday
through Sunday with chances for mainly aftn/evening
showers/tstms each day.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

-Benign marine conditions continue through the end of the week

-Swell from TC Ernesto arrives over the weekend. SCAs likely for
coastal waters.

High pressure remains in control this morning, leading to benign
marine conditions. Latest obs reflect a W/NW wind at 5-10kt, seas
around 2ft, and waves of 1ft or less. Expect generally lighter winds
to continue through Thursday with a sea breeze developing in the
afternoons. Will likely see temporary enhancements in nearshore
winds during the afternoon/evening, but should still be sub-SCA
levels. A cold front will gradually approach the region Friday
through the weekend, forcing high pressure offshore. The pressure
gradient ahead of the front will tighten up a bit, leading to
increasing southerly winds. Winds looks to generally remain in the
10-15kt range, but cannot rule out brief/marginal SCA-level winds,
especially in the upper bay. Also, swell from TC Ernesto (which will
remain well offshore) will increase seas this weekend into early
next week. Latest guidance brings in 3-6ft seas Saturday, increasing
to 5-7ft Sunday. Conditions gradually improve early next week.
Elevated seas will mean increased rip current risk as well.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 1220 PM EDT Wednesday...

Flood warning continues for the Appomattox River at Mattoax
(MTXV2). The river level crested at 22.2ft (minor flood stage
21.0ft) and is continuing to slowly fall. The river should fall
back below flood stage through mid-afternoon.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JDM/MAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...AM
HYDROLOGY...