969
FXUS61 KAKQ 141928
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
328 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Tranquil weather conditions and comfortable humidity levels are
expected through Thursday, as surface high pressure resides
over the region. Precipitation chances gradually return to the
region from Friday night through the weekend, as a slow moving
area of low pressure and series of fronts cross the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Comfortable temperatures and humidity levels for mid-August
  through tonight.

- Isolated showers or thunderstorms through late afternoon
  mainly along/south of US-460 into northern NC.

Latest analysis reveals a weak surface trough in place along
the mid-Atlantic coast. To the northwest, 1020+mb sfc high
pressure remains centered just to our NW over the eastern Great
Lakes. Aloft, the upper trough axis has pushed offshore, with NW
flow continuing to prevail over the region and upper level
ridging building over the Mississippi River Valley into the
upper midwest. Blended TPW Sat imagery and mesoanalysis shows PW
values generally in the 0.8-1.1" range across the region,
highest along the coastal plain extending SW across S VA and N
NC.

For the rest of this afternoon, A scattered CU field along with
a few showers have developed along and south of US-58 this
afternoon. CAMS continue to show potential for some additional
isolated showers and t-storms through 5-6 pm this afternoon,
mainly across the southern third of the forecast area where PW
values remain ~1". Highs mainly in the low to mid 80s.

Any convection quickly tapers with loss of heating this evening.
Mainly clear and pleasant tonight. Given the cool and drying
airmass, we continue to undercut the NBM guidance by about a
category, especially in typical cool spots across the piedmont
NW of Richmond. Overnight lows in the upper 50s to around 60
inland, with a few mid 50s likely along US-15 out in our western
piedmont from LKU to FVX. Lows in the lower to middle 60s for
the remainder of the FA. Will likely have some additional spots
of patchy fog/low stratus toward morning in the piedmont as
well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer and remaining dry for Thursday.

- Precipitation chances return late Friday.

Under the influence of continued NW flow and with thicknesses
nudging up slightly, Thursday will be a touch warmer/more
seasonable. Forecast highs in the mid to upper 80s across the
region under a mostly sunny sky. The aforementioned trough axis
shifts out over the western Atlantic and is what will keep
now-Hurricane Ernesto, just NNW of Puerto Rico, moving farther
offshore away from the east coast over the next few days. See
hurricanes.gov for the latest information on Ernesto.

Building ridging at the sfc and aloft will keep dry conditions
in place. The upper ridge begins to break down Friday afternoon
in advance of an upper low and cold front over the Great Lakes.
A weak pre-frontal trough will likely touch off a few showers
and thunderstorms to our NW counties late in the day on Friday.
Locally, models continue to back track on rain chances across
the area, with slight chance or less now through Friday evening.
Removed mention of PoPs during the day on Friday and nudged
PoPs down a bit further Friday night, with 20-30% rain chances
in place for an isolated to widely scattered shower, with best
chances NW of a RIC-SBY line. Highs Friday will be in the mid
to upper 80s with a modest though discernible increase in RH/Td
levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Seasonably warm and increasingly humid this weekend

- Precipitation chances return over the weekend and linger into
  the middle of next week.

Rain chances increase gradually over the weekend into Monday,
as a series of weak cold fronts push into the area as the
parent upper low slowly approaches from the west. PoPs range
from 30-40% during this time. Best rain chances areawide come on
Saturday as the initial front crosses into the area, then
linger mainly across the east where the front becomes hung up
late Sunday into midweek. Rain chances gradually draw down from
Monday through Wednesday, though at least a slight chance PoP
remains in the forecast each afternoon/evening. Temps remain
seasonable through early next week with highs in the mid- upper
80s away from the immediate coast, with early morning lows in
the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions during the 18z TAF period expected through
tonight with either a calm or very light N-NE wind. Some
scattered CU at ORF/PHF/ECG with bases of 6-8kft will persist
this afternoon, before clearing out this evening. Low probability
of an isolated shower at KECG for mid-late afternoon. Some
patchy ground fog/low stratus SSW of terminals over the VA
piedmont late tonight into Thu morning.

Outlook: Dry and VFR for Thursday and most of Friday. A slow
moving cold front will approach from the west late Friday
through Sunday with chances for mainly aftn/evening
showers/tstms each day.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Quiet conditions continue today through early Friday.

- Small Craft Advisories are likely for the Atlantic coastal waters
late Friday through the weekend as swells from Hurricane Ernesto
reach the coast.

1020mb high pressure is parked over Michigan and extends southward
into Kentucky and Tennessee. Winds in the Ches Bay/lower James are
from the N and NE at 10-15 kt with 5-10 kt noted offshore. Waves are
around 1 foot with seas 1-2 ft. Conditions this evening should be
good with variable winds around 5 kt area-wide. Thursday will
feature variable wind directions and speeds 5-10 kt through the day
as weak synoptic forcing is offset by local effects (sea/land
breeze). High pressure to the north moves offshore on Friday ahead
of low pressure and cold front over the Midwest. This low/front will
be slow to move east Friday into Saturday but the pressure gradient
will perhaps sharpen enough to result in marginal SCA conditions in
the Ches Bay, especially the middle and upper portions. Meanwhile,
Hurricane Ernesto is forecast to lift northward well offshore Friday
through Sunday. 12z guidance shows some variation in track and
intensity with the GFS the farthest east and ECMWF closer to the
coast. Impacts locally will be restricted to increasing swell and
the threat for deadly rip currents. Latest wave guidance has backed
off on the seas this cycle which doesn`t make a whole lot of sense.
Will go above guidance with respect to seas Friday night into early
next week. Eastern NC/Outer Banks will shield the southern waters
from the swell until Ernesto can gain some latitude so will show
seas increasing to 4-6 ft N and 3-5 ft S by Saturday morning. Seas
peak at 6-7 ft both north and south on Sunday into Sunday evening.
Waves near the mouth of the bay will increase as well, generally 2-
3 ft on Saturday with 3-6 ft possible Sunday evening before things
start to calm down Monday.

Rip current risk remains low on Thursday but increases to moderate N
on Friday. High rip risk is possible if not likely for the northern
beaches on Saturday with a moderate risk for the from VA Beach
southward. High rip risk is likely everywhere on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Flood warning was cancelled for the Appomattox River at Mattoax
(MTXV2). The river level crested at 22.2ft (minor flood stage
21.0ft) early this morning and fell back below flood stage
earlier this afternoon. See FLSAKQ or water.noaa.gov for more
site-specific details.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...JDM/MAM
AVIATION...JDM/MAM
MARINE...RHR
HYDROLOGY...