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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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969 FXUS61 KAKQ 141928 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 328 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Tranquil weather conditions and comfortable humidity levels are expected through Thursday, as surface high pressure resides over the region. Precipitation chances gradually return to the region from Friday night through the weekend, as a slow moving area of low pressure and series of fronts cross the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Comfortable temperatures and humidity levels for mid-August through tonight. - Isolated showers or thunderstorms through late afternoon mainly along/south of US-460 into northern NC. Latest analysis reveals a weak surface trough in place along the mid-Atlantic coast. To the northwest, 1020+mb sfc high pressure remains centered just to our NW over the eastern Great Lakes. Aloft, the upper trough axis has pushed offshore, with NW flow continuing to prevail over the region and upper level ridging building over the Mississippi River Valley into the upper midwest. Blended TPW Sat imagery and mesoanalysis shows PW values generally in the 0.8-1.1" range across the region, highest along the coastal plain extending SW across S VA and N NC. For the rest of this afternoon, A scattered CU field along with a few showers have developed along and south of US-58 this afternoon. CAMS continue to show potential for some additional isolated showers and t-storms through 5-6 pm this afternoon, mainly across the southern third of the forecast area where PW values remain ~1". Highs mainly in the low to mid 80s. Any convection quickly tapers with loss of heating this evening. Mainly clear and pleasant tonight. Given the cool and drying airmass, we continue to undercut the NBM guidance by about a category, especially in typical cool spots across the piedmont NW of Richmond. Overnight lows in the upper 50s to around 60 inland, with a few mid 50s likely along US-15 out in our western piedmont from LKU to FVX. Lows in the lower to middle 60s for the remainder of the FA. Will likely have some additional spots of patchy fog/low stratus toward morning in the piedmont as well. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Warmer and remaining dry for Thursday. - Precipitation chances return late Friday. Under the influence of continued NW flow and with thicknesses nudging up slightly, Thursday will be a touch warmer/more seasonable. Forecast highs in the mid to upper 80s across the region under a mostly sunny sky. The aforementioned trough axis shifts out over the western Atlantic and is what will keep now-Hurricane Ernesto, just NNW of Puerto Rico, moving farther offshore away from the east coast over the next few days. See hurricanes.gov for the latest information on Ernesto. Building ridging at the sfc and aloft will keep dry conditions in place. The upper ridge begins to break down Friday afternoon in advance of an upper low and cold front over the Great Lakes. A weak pre-frontal trough will likely touch off a few showers and thunderstorms to our NW counties late in the day on Friday. Locally, models continue to back track on rain chances across the area, with slight chance or less now through Friday evening. Removed mention of PoPs during the day on Friday and nudged PoPs down a bit further Friday night, with 20-30% rain chances in place for an isolated to widely scattered shower, with best chances NW of a RIC-SBY line. Highs Friday will be in the mid to upper 80s with a modest though discernible increase in RH/Td levels. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Seasonably warm and increasingly humid this weekend - Precipitation chances return over the weekend and linger into the middle of next week. Rain chances increase gradually over the weekend into Monday, as a series of weak cold fronts push into the area as the parent upper low slowly approaches from the west. PoPs range from 30-40% during this time. Best rain chances areawide come on Saturday as the initial front crosses into the area, then linger mainly across the east where the front becomes hung up late Sunday into midweek. Rain chances gradually draw down from Monday through Wednesday, though at least a slight chance PoP remains in the forecast each afternoon/evening. Temps remain seasonable through early next week with highs in the mid- upper 80s away from the immediate coast, with early morning lows in the 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... VFR conditions during the 18z TAF period expected through tonight with either a calm or very light N-NE wind. Some scattered CU at ORF/PHF/ECG with bases of 6-8kft will persist this afternoon, before clearing out this evening. Low probability of an isolated shower at KECG for mid-late afternoon. Some patchy ground fog/low stratus SSW of terminals over the VA piedmont late tonight into Thu morning. Outlook: Dry and VFR for Thursday and most of Friday. A slow moving cold front will approach from the west late Friday through Sunday with chances for mainly aftn/evening showers/tstms each day. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Quiet conditions continue today through early Friday. - Small Craft Advisories are likely for the Atlantic coastal waters late Friday through the weekend as swells from Hurricane Ernesto reach the coast. 1020mb high pressure is parked over Michigan and extends southward into Kentucky and Tennessee. Winds in the Ches Bay/lower James are from the N and NE at 10-15 kt with 5-10 kt noted offshore. Waves are around 1 foot with seas 1-2 ft. Conditions this evening should be good with variable winds around 5 kt area-wide. Thursday will feature variable wind directions and speeds 5-10 kt through the day as weak synoptic forcing is offset by local effects (sea/land breeze). High pressure to the north moves offshore on Friday ahead of low pressure and cold front over the Midwest. This low/front will be slow to move east Friday into Saturday but the pressure gradient will perhaps sharpen enough to result in marginal SCA conditions in the Ches Bay, especially the middle and upper portions. Meanwhile, Hurricane Ernesto is forecast to lift northward well offshore Friday through Sunday. 12z guidance shows some variation in track and intensity with the GFS the farthest east and ECMWF closer to the coast. Impacts locally will be restricted to increasing swell and the threat for deadly rip currents. Latest wave guidance has backed off on the seas this cycle which doesn`t make a whole lot of sense. Will go above guidance with respect to seas Friday night into early next week. Eastern NC/Outer Banks will shield the southern waters from the swell until Ernesto can gain some latitude so will show seas increasing to 4-6 ft N and 3-5 ft S by Saturday morning. Seas peak at 6-7 ft both north and south on Sunday into Sunday evening. Waves near the mouth of the bay will increase as well, generally 2- 3 ft on Saturday with 3-6 ft possible Sunday evening before things start to calm down Monday. Rip current risk remains low on Thursday but increases to moderate N on Friday. High rip risk is possible if not likely for the northern beaches on Saturday with a moderate risk for the from VA Beach southward. High rip risk is likely everywhere on Sunday. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... Flood warning was cancelled for the Appomattox River at Mattoax (MTXV2). The river level crested at 22.2ft (minor flood stage 21.0ft) early this morning and fell back below flood stage earlier this afternoon. See FLSAKQ or water.noaa.gov for more site-specific details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...JDM/MAM AVIATION...JDM/MAM MARINE...RHR HYDROLOGY...