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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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031 FXUS61 KAKQ 151055 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 655 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Tranquil weather conditions and comfortable humidity levels are expected through Thursday, as surface high pressure resides over the region. Precipitation chances gradually return to the region from Friday night through the weekend, as a slow moving area of low pressure and series of fronts cross the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 430 AM EDT Thu... Key Messages: - Seasonably warm today with highs in the mid/upper 80s under mostly sunny skies. Staying fairly quiet today as high pressure remains in control at the sfc with NW flow aloft. The day will start off on the cool side with lows this morning in the upper 50s in the Piedmont and lower 60s close to the coast. Will likely see some patchy fog inland as well. Will see a slight inc in thicknesses today leading to highs being a few degrees warmer than the last few days, but still seasonable. An afternoon sea breeze may trigger a brief shower or two near the coast (~15%). Otherwise, expect mostly to partly sunny skies. Overnight, sfc high pres will start to slide offshore while the ridge axis aloft slides towards the East Coast. Lows tonight in the low/mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 4 AM EDT Thu... Key Messages: - Seasonably warm and humid Friday with a slight chance of afternoon showers in the NW. - Increasing chances for showers/storms though the weekend as a series of weak cold fronts pass through. The flow aloft becomes more zonal overhead Fri as the ridge shifts offshore and weakens and low pres dips into the western Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, TC Ernesto will travel northward well away from the Carolina coast. A weak pre-frontal trough will likely trigger a few showers/storms late in the day Fri for the far western counties, but latest guidance cont to trend drier locally, keeping the precip to the west. Will maintain a slight chance across the western border late Fri evening and overnight. Highs will be in the mid/upr 80s, and it will be noticeably more humid as dewpoints rise into the mid 60s. Rain chances inc over the weekend into Mon, as a series of weak cold fronts push into the area as the parent upper low slowly approaches from the west. Pops range from Sat are mostly dry for most of the day, then precip chances inc in the evening and overnight. Have chc pops Sat evening/night with the highest pops across the northern half of the area. Highs on Sat will once again be in the mid/upr 80s. Coverage of showers/storms looks to be higher on Sun with the parent low and trough axis closer to the area. Pops will be up to around 50% over the entire area in the afternoon. Precip will end from W to E Sun night. Highs Sun in the upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 4 AM Thu... Key Messages: - Warm and humid on Monday with another chance for afternoon thunderstorms - Returning to slightly cooler, drier pattern Tuesday and Wednesday The early week period will see a return to a quieter and seasonably cooler weather pattern. The trough axis will cross through the area Monday. This will probably trigger a some showers/storms in the afternoon. Highs on Mon will be in the mid/upper 80s. NW flow returns as the trough moves offshore and high pressure will build in from the NW Tue-Wed. Highs will be in the lower 80s and humidity will be lower as well. Should be mainly dry, but cannot rule a a stray shower in the SE in the afternoons. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 655 AM Thursday... VFR will prevail through the 12z TAF period as high pressure remains in control. Starting out with mainly clear skies, though will note there is some haze due to smoke aloft. Will see some afternoon SCT cu. Winds start out light an vrb this morning and remain fairly light through the period, becoming southerly late this evening. While most of the area will stay dry today, cannot rule out isolated showers/storms near the coast triggered by the sea breeze. Outlook: Dry and VFR through most of Friday. A slow moving cold front will approach from the west late Friday through Sunday with chances for mainly aftn/evening showers/tstms each day, especially Sunday. && .MARINE... As of 400 AM Thursday... Key Messages: - Quiet conditions continue today through early Friday. Elevated southerly winds are expected Friday night through Saturday night, potentially bringing marginal SCA`s to the Bay. - Small Craft Advisories are likely for the Atlantic coastal waters and mouth of the Chesapeake Bay late Friday through the weekend as swells from Hurricane Ernesto reach the coast (see tides/coastal flooding section below. Today will feature NW winds this morning, shifting to the E/NE this aftn as local effects take over(sea/land breeze). High pressure to the north moves offshore on Friday ahead of low pressure and cold front over the Midwest. This low/front will be slow to move east Friday into Saturday but the pressure gradient does look to sharpen enough to result in marginal SCA conditions in the Ches Bay, especially the middle and upper portions. Meanwhile, Hurricane Ernesto, currently well E of the Bahamas, is forecast to lift NNE, reaching near Bermuda by early Sat. Impacts locally will be restricted to increasing swell and the threat for deadly rip currents. Seas peak at 5-7 ft Sunday into Sunday evening. Waves near the mouth of the bay will increase as well, generally 2- 3 ft on Saturday with 3-5 ft possible Sunday before things start to calm down Monday (though will likely have seas offshore linger at 4-5 ft). The models are in decent agreement that another eastern CONUS upper trough develops next week, allowing a cold front to move through the local waters Tuesday with winds shifting to the N/NW. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 400 AM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - At least Moderate Rip Current Risk expected Friday, with a high rip risk for the weekend as long period swell from distant Hurricane Ernesto affects the region. The latest 15/00Z run of the NWPS supports high rip risk for all coastal zones by Sat given seas of 4-6 ft with a dominant period of 13 seconds or greater. Friday is a bit more uncertain as waves may only be ~2 ft until later in the day so will go with a Moderate rip risk for now. Some minor tidal flooding will be possible (mainly in the mid/upper Bay) by Sun/Mon as the combination of southerly winds and the potential for water becoming trapped in the Bay develops with the long period swell. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AM/MAM NEAR TERM...AM SHORT TERM...AM/MAM LONG TERM...AM/MAM AVIATION...AM MARINE...LKB/RHR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...