031
FXUS61 KAKQ 151055
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
655 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Tranquil weather conditions and comfortable humidity levels are
expected through Thursday, as surface high pressure resides
over the region. Precipitation chances gradually return to the
region from Friday night through the weekend, as a slow moving
area of low pressure and series of fronts cross the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 430 AM EDT Thu...

Key Messages:

- Seasonably warm today with highs in the mid/upper 80s under
  mostly sunny skies.

Staying fairly quiet today as high pressure remains in control
at the sfc with NW flow aloft. The day will start off on the
cool side with lows this morning in the upper 50s in the
Piedmont and lower 60s close to the coast. Will likely see some
patchy fog inland as well. Will see a slight inc in thicknesses
today leading to highs being a few degrees warmer than the last
few days, but still seasonable. An afternoon sea breeze may
trigger a brief shower or two near the coast (~15%). Otherwise,
expect mostly to partly sunny skies. Overnight, sfc high pres
will start to slide offshore while the ridge axis aloft slides
towards the East Coast. Lows tonight in the low/mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 4 AM EDT Thu...

Key Messages:

- Seasonably warm and humid Friday with a slight chance of
  afternoon showers in the NW.

- Increasing chances for showers/storms though the weekend as a
  series of weak cold fronts pass through.

The flow aloft becomes more zonal overhead Fri as the ridge
shifts offshore and weakens and low pres dips into the western
Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, TC Ernesto will travel northward
well away from the Carolina coast. A weak pre-frontal trough
will likely trigger a few showers/storms late in the day Fri for
the far western counties, but latest guidance cont to trend
drier locally, keeping the precip to the west. Will maintain a
slight chance across the western border late Fri evening and
overnight. Highs will be in the mid/upr 80s, and it will be
noticeably more humid as dewpoints rise into the mid 60s.

Rain chances inc over the weekend into Mon, as a series of weak
cold fronts push into the area as the parent upper low slowly
approaches from the west. Pops range from Sat are mostly dry for
most of the day, then precip chances inc in the evening and
overnight. Have chc pops Sat evening/night with the highest pops
across the northern half of the area. Highs on Sat will once
again be in the mid/upr 80s. Coverage of showers/storms looks to
be higher on Sun with the parent low and trough axis closer to
the area. Pops will be up to around 50% over the entire area in
the afternoon. Precip will end from W to E Sun night. Highs Sun
in the upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 4 AM Thu...

Key Messages:

- Warm and humid on Monday with another chance for afternoon
  thunderstorms

- Returning to slightly cooler, drier pattern Tuesday and
  Wednesday

The early week period will see a return to a quieter and
seasonably cooler weather pattern. The trough axis will cross
through the area Monday. This will probably trigger a some
showers/storms in the afternoon. Highs on Mon will be in the
mid/upper 80s. NW flow returns as the trough moves offshore and
high pressure will build in from the NW Tue-Wed. Highs will be
in the lower 80s and humidity will be lower as well. Should be
mainly dry, but cannot rule a a stray shower in the SE in the
afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 655 AM Thursday...

VFR will prevail through the 12z TAF period as high pressure
remains in control. Starting out with mainly clear skies, though
will note there is some haze due to smoke aloft. Will see some
afternoon SCT cu. Winds start out light an vrb this morning and
remain fairly light through the period, becoming southerly late
this evening. While most of the area will stay dry today,
cannot rule out isolated showers/storms near the coast
triggered by the sea breeze.

Outlook: Dry and VFR through most of Friday. A slow moving cold
front will approach from the west late Friday through Sunday
with chances for mainly aftn/evening showers/tstms each day,
especially Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 AM Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Quiet conditions continue today through early Friday. Elevated
  southerly winds are expected Friday night through Saturday
  night, potentially bringing marginal SCA`s to the Bay.

- Small Craft Advisories are likely for the Atlantic coastal
  waters and mouth of the Chesapeake Bay late Friday through the
  weekend as swells from Hurricane Ernesto reach the coast (see
  tides/coastal flooding section below.

Today will feature NW winds this morning, shifting to the E/NE
this aftn as local effects take over(sea/land breeze). High
pressure to the north moves offshore on Friday ahead of low
pressure and cold front over the Midwest. This low/front will be
slow to move east Friday into Saturday but the pressure
gradient does look to sharpen enough to result in marginal SCA
conditions in the Ches Bay, especially the middle and upper
portions. Meanwhile, Hurricane Ernesto, currently well E of the
Bahamas, is forecast to lift NNE, reaching near Bermuda by early
Sat. Impacts locally will be restricted to increasing swell and
the threat for deadly rip currents. Seas peak at 5-7 ft Sunday
into Sunday evening. Waves near the mouth of the bay will
increase as well, generally 2- 3 ft on Saturday with 3-5 ft
possible Sunday before things start to calm down Monday (though
will likely have seas offshore linger at 4-5 ft). The models
are in decent agreement that another eastern CONUS upper trough
develops next week, allowing a cold front to move through the
local waters Tuesday with winds shifting to the N/NW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- At least Moderate Rip Current Risk expected Friday, with a
  high rip risk for the weekend as long period swell from
  distant Hurricane Ernesto affects the region.

The latest 15/00Z run of the NWPS supports high rip risk for all
coastal zones by Sat given seas of 4-6 ft with a dominant period
of 13 seconds or greater. Friday is a bit more uncertain as
waves may only be ~2 ft until later in the day so will go with a
Moderate rip risk for now. Some minor tidal flooding will be
possible (mainly in the mid/upper Bay) by Sun/Mon as the
combination of southerly winds and the potential for water
becoming trapped in the Bay develops with the long period swell.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM/MAM
NEAR TERM...AM
SHORT TERM...AM/MAM
LONG TERM...AM/MAM
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...LKB/RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...