024
FXUS61 KAKQ 020006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
806 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the west today with increasing
storm chances from west to east late in the day into tonight.
The front will be very slow to cross the local area through
Wednesday, with numerous showers and thunderstorms continuing.
Mainly dry conditions are expected late in the week into next
weekend as high pressure brings somewhat lower humidity to the
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 805 PM EDT Tuesday...

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms continue through
  tonight.

- A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 9 PM this
  evening for the northern half of the area.

- The risk for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding
  increases late this evening into tonight.

Aloft, a mid-upper trough was slowly advancing eastward through
the OH Valley and Great Lakes this evening. At the surface, a
cold front extends from southern Quebec through the eastern
Great Lakes and into the Appalachians. A pre- frontal lee
trough has also set up over the Piedmont region. Scattered
storms have remained generally confined to the NW half of the
area this evening where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in
effect until 9 PM. This area could see a few more strong to
severe storms into this evening as well as localized flash
flooding given training storms. Wet microbursts and outflow-
forced damaging winds appear to be the main threat in storms,
along with locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.

The front enters the area this evening/early tonight, though it
stalls across our CWA late tonight into early Wednesday morning as
the front becomes parallel to the deep-layer flow. With PWATs
remaining near 2" and strengthening 925-850 mb winds, there will
likely be support for continued convection through the night. The
severe potential will tend to drop off overnight with the loss
of heating, but the threat for heavy rainfall and localized
flash flooding could increase as storm training becomes more
prevalent. The latest CAMs are in decent agreement in showing
this potential from the SW Piedmont into the RIC metro/Northern
Neck and MD Eastern Shore. WPC has maintained a Slight ERO for
roughly the NW half of the area. PoPs also gradually ramp up
across the SE, but remain 15-20% across NE NC through early
Wednesday morning. Overnight lows tonight generally in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- The front will be slow to push SE, likely stalling near VA/NC
  border, bringing increased rain chances to SE VA and NE NC
  Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding is
  possible.

- Turning drier behind the front Thursday.

- Dry and noticeably less humid for the Fourth of July holiday.

The trend in the guidance of a slower frontal passage has continued
into today, though there is more agreement now in placement and
timing of potential precip. With the approaching upper trough axis,
PWAT values > 2.00", and the slow-moving nature of the front, there
appears to be ample support for heavy rain across the SE half of the
area Wednesday. Again, the primary hazard Wednesday looks to be
heavy rain and the latest 12z HREF has expanded the footprint of 30-
50% neighborhood probs for 3"/3 hr, which now includes a good
portion of E/SE VA and NE NC. Forecast soundings show rather weak
flow and weak corfidi upshear vectors, suggesting some potential for
backbuilding storms. WPC has maintained the Slight ERO across SE
VA and NE NC. A Flood Watch may need to be considered by the
overnight shift should this threat continue to look plausible.
In addition, there will likely be additional heating with lower
morning PoPs, especially for southside Hampton Roads and NE NC.
This could allow for some localized strong wind gusts given
moisture laden updrafts in a high PW airmass. While SPC did not
outlook the area with their D2 update, would not be surprised to
eventually have a Marginal Risk (level 1 out 5) issued with
subsequent outlook updates. Lastly, the HRRR shows some modest
low-level shear and hodograph curvature across SE VA/NE NC in
the afternoon/evening (0-1 km SRH of 50-100 m2/s2). Combined
with the lower LCLs from the moisture-rich environment and
elevated 0-3km MLCAPE, a non- zero tornado threat could
materialize. This potential is highly conditional and dependent
on placement of surface features. Nonetheless, something to
monitor into tomorrow.

High temperatures drop into the 80s Wednesday (some areas could
potentially be in the upper 70s) with PoPs ranging from 40-60% N to
70-90% SE with the front lingering over the local area. Overall, NW
zones will tend to see diminishing PoPs by late aftn as drier air
moves in. 01/00z EPS/GEFS continue to show the front pushing SE of
the region Wednesday night into Thursday, with PW values dropping to
well below percent of normal Thursday. A lingering shower or storm
or two is possible across NE NC Thursday afternoon near the decaying
boundary. A secondary cold front also approaches from the N
Thursday. However, PoPs are generally < 15% in other locations given
a drier airmass. High temperatures return to the lower 90s, with
heat indices in the mid/upper 90s as dewpoints drop into the upper
60s to lower 70s Thursday. Lows Thursday night drop into the mid to
upper 60s well inland to the low 70s near the coast.

A pleasant and dry, but still warm, Fourth of July holiday looks to
be in store as an upper trough axis slides through and high pressure
builds to our N. Highs temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 F
are forecast, with sunny to mostly sunny skies and light onshore
flow. Dew points range through the 60s, so it should feel quite
comfortable...despite the warm temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry through the upcoming weekend.

- Becoming hotter once again, but lower dew points will continue
  to bring some relief to the area.

Upper ridging will start to build across the Northeast and Mid-
Atlantic by next weekend. Highs trend back toward the 90s, but
dewpoints will be slower to recover and mainly dry conditions are
expected for the Independence Day holiday weekend. More humid
conditions along with low chances of diurnal showers/tstms arrive
early next week well in advance of another cold front moving into
the Great Lakes.

One other thing to monitor will be a weak low offshore of the SE
coast early next week. There is a very low probability this low
could take on some tropical/subtropical characteristics, but most
guidance keeps any moisture well S of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 755 PM EDT Tuesday...

A cold front will slowly approach the area through Wed, allowing
for scattered to numerous showers and storms to continue from
this evening through Wed afternoon. Storms this evening have
generally remained confined to the NW half of the area. As such,
the best chance for storms over the next six hours is at RIC
and SBY where TEMPOs have been added. Lightning activity should
diminish after 6z, however, cannot rule out lightning with the
stronger convection overnight. Storms likely increase in
coverage Wed afternoon across all local terminals, lingering
into the late afternoon and evening across PHF/ORF/ECG. MVFR/IFR
VIS is possible with any storms along with gusty winds. VFR CIGs
this evening become MVFR at RIC/SBY by 3-5z Wed and 6z Wed at
PHF. MVFR CIGs likely make it to ORF/ECG a bit later (12-15z
Wed). CIGs remain MVFR through much of the day on Wed.
Additionally, a brief period of IFR CIGs is possible at RIC
between 10-16z Wed.

Outlook: The cold front will be slow to cross the region
Wednesday night with storms tapering off across SE VA/ NE NC
overnight. VFR conditions return Thursday through Saturday as
drier air builds into the region behind the cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories into effect through early Wednesday
  for most of the local waters.

- Benign marine conditions return Wednesday afternoon through
  the extended period.

SW winds have decreased some this afternoon as warmer air moves
over the waters. However, nearshore winds have become gusty to
20-25 kt due to mixing over land. Either way, Small Craft
Advisories are currently in effect for all waters (minus the
upper rivers). Winds should increase everywhere this evening
into tonight as the gradient approaches ahead of a cold front
and 925 mb winds increase to 30-35 kt. The strongest winds
(20-25 kt sustained) are forecast in the lower bay and coastal
waters, with 15-20 kt winds elsewhere. Additionally, locally
stronger winds and higher waves/seas are likely in shower and
storms late tonight. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect
for the northern bay and coastal waters offshore of MD through
01z/9 PM. Otherwise, made some minor adjustments to the end
times of SCA headlines, with the lower bay and lower James
extended until 11z/7 AM Wednesday. Waves increase to 2-3 ft
(locally 4 ft lower/mouth of the bay), with seas peaking at 4-6
ft late tonight. Winds diminish quickly by Wednesday afternoon
behind the front, though additional showers and storms are
likely across the SE in the afternoon. Benign marine conditions
will resume by mid- week and are expected to continue through
the holiday weekend.

The rip current risk for today is MODERATE across the northern
beaches (including Ocean City), but has been reduced to LOW
across southern beaches due to weak swell and nearshore waves
only ~1 ft. A LOW risk is expected at all beaches Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June 2025 ranked in the Top 10 Warmest at all 4 Long term
Climate stations:

* Site: Avg Temp (Rank)

- RIC: 78.1 (5th warmest)
- ORF: 78.8 (7th warmest)
- SBY: 75.6 (9th warmest)
- ECG: 78.6 (10th warmest)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-631-
     650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632>634-
     638-654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB/SW
NEAR TERM...RMM/SW
SHORT TERM...LKB/SW
LONG TERM...LKB/SW
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AC/SW
CLIMATE...