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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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069 FXUS61 KAKQ 161345 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 945 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonably warm today and dry through the evening. Precipitation chances gradually return to the region from Friday night through the weekend, as a slow moving area of low pressure and series of fronts cross the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 945 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Seasonably warm today with highs in the mid/upper 80s with increasing clouds this evening. - Scattered showers and perhaps an isolated storm or two are possible late tonight into early Saturday morning. Afternoon sfc analysis depicts high pressure off the East Coast this morning. This high will gradually slide off the coast through the day. Aloft, a weak ridge moves E across the Great Lakes with a trough off the East Coast moving E. A shortwave moves E tonight into Sat morning with scattered showers (and perhaps an isolated storm or two) possible overnight. CAMs generally agree on a line of showers passing through the FA late tonight into the early morning from W to E. Highest coverage would likely be across N counties. However, most of the day is expected to be dry and warm with highs in the upper 80s for most (potentially around 90F at Richmond). Lows tonight in the upper 60s to around 70F expected for most with mid-upper 60s possible across SE VA/NE NC and the Eastern Shore (where less cloud cover is expected). && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Seasonably warm with increasing humidity. - Increasing chances for showers/storms though the weekend as a series of weak cold fronts pass through. Rain chances ramp up through the weekend into Monday, as a series of weak cold fronts push into the area and the parent upper low slowly approaches from the west. PoPs are mostly dry for most of the day Saturday, then precip chances increase (30-50%) in the late afternoon, evening and overnight. Highs on Sat will once again be in the mid/upr 80s. Humidity will increase as dewpoints rise into the low 70s. Will note that SPC has trimmed back the marginal severe risk for Sat, so now it only clips the far NW part of the FA. Coverage of showers/storms looks to be higher on Sun with as the parent low and trough axis moves closer to the area, with better forcing pushing in by afternoon and evening. PoPs will be up to around 50-60% over the entire area in the afternoon. There could easily be a few stronger storms as well, with LREF showing SBCAPE ~1000-1500 J/kg with 25-35 kt of deep layer shear. Precip will end from W to E Sun night. Highs Sun in the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 305 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Warm and humid on Monday with another chance for afternoon thunderstorms. - Returning to cooler, drier pattern for the midweek period. Overall, the long term looks to be cooler and drier as a rather strong UL trough (for this time of year at least) sticks around over the East Coast for several days. A cold front will cross through the area and slide offshore Monday/Monday night. The front will likely trigger scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours. PoPs are in the 40-50% range with the highest coverage in the NW half of the FA. Monday is likely the warmest day of the week with highs in the mid-upper 80s. Cool high pressure builds in behind the front from the NW Tues and gradually slides east through the week. Temps look to be several degrees below norms through at least Thurs. Highs will be in the low 80s Tues-Thurs. Blended guidance actually shows that some locations may not even reach 80 Tues-Wed. This period will be mostly dry, but cannot rule out a few showers E of I-95 Tues afternoon. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 AM Friday... VFR prevails through the period as high pressure gradually slides offshore today into tonight. SCT high level clouds will be present through the afternoon, then cloud cover increases from NW to SE tonight into Sat morning. Latest sfc obs have been showing brief MVFR vsbys around the FA this morning, but not expecting this to become widespread. Thinking SBY is the most likely of the terminals to see some patchy fog this morning. Winds will be calm to light and variable this morning, then picking up to 5-10kt out of the S/SE this afternoon. Outlook: A slow moving cold front will approach from the west late Friday through Sunday with chances for mainly aftn/evening showers/tstms each day, especially Sunday. && .MARINE... As of 400 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Quiet conditions to start today, with elevated southerly winds developing late today through Saturday night. SCAs are possible in the Bay Sat aftn/Sat night for 20-25kt wind gusts (best chance N of New Pt Comfort). - Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all coastal waters starting tonight north of Cape Charles, with the remaining coastal waters starting on Saturday as swells from Hurricane Ernesto reach the coast (this will also affect at least the Mouth of the Bay with 3-4 ft waves by Sat night/Sunday). High pressure from NY/PA south into the Carolinas will shift off the coast today. Winds are generally from SW at 5-10 kt but will become light northerly later this morning, before increasing from the SE late in the aftn. With high pressure offshore and low pressure with a cold front approaching from the midwest, expect to see enough tightening of the pressure gradient for S winds 10-15kt with gusts to 20 kt tonight, and winds a little higher Sat aftn/Sat night. SCA conditions from wind are most likely in the Ches Bay north of New Pt Comfort. Meanwhile, Hurricane Ernesto, currently well NE of the Bahamas, is forecast to lift NNE, tracking to near Bermuda by early Sat. Impacts locally will be restricted to increasing swell and the threat for deadly rip currents. SCA flags start for the Atlantic waters north of Cape Charles Light at 02z/10pm tonight, with the remaining Atlantic waters starting SCAs by Sat aftn. It is more marginal/uncertain at the mouth of the Bay but expect additional small craft headlines will be needed by Sat night/Sunday for ~4ft waves. Seas Saturday will average 5-7 ft N of Cape Charles, and 4-5 ft to the south, while then averaging 5-6 ft all areas late Sat night through Sunday. Waves near the mouth of the bay will increase as well, generally 2-3 ft on Saturday with 3-5 ft possible late Sat night into Sunday before things start to calm down Monday (though will likely have seas offshore linger at 4-5 ft possibly into early Tuesday). The models are in decent agreement that another eastern CONUS upper trough develops next week, allowing a cold front to move through the local waters Mon night/Tuesday with winds shifting to the N/NW. Current models do not show more than 10-15kt of wind Mon night/Tue, but as the details become more precise, would expect winds to be stronger given good mixing as rather cool air (by August standards) moves over the warm waters. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 420 AM EDT Friday... Key Message: - A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents today, with a High Rip Risk likely for both Saturday and Sunday as long period swell from distant Hurricane Ernesto affects the region. The latest 16/00Z run of the NWPS supports high rip risk for all Atlantic coastal zones for the weekend given seas of 4-6 ft with a dominant period of 13-15 seconds. Today begins low with seas only 1-2 ft, but with the building seas to ~3 ft or 3-4 ft this aftn, and an increase in the wave period, will have a Moderate rip risk in effect today. Some minor tidal flooding will be possible along the Bayside of the MD eastern shore by Sun/Mon as the persistent long period swell may help trap water in the Bay for several tide cycles (the southerly wind direction favors transporting any trapped water northward). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AM/MAM NEAR TERM...RMM SHORT TERM...AM/MAM LONG TERM...AM AVIATION...AM MARINE...LKB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...