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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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480 FXUS61 KAKQ 201758 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 158 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front over NC will lift is lifting north early this morning, bringing unsettled conditions back to most of the area with locally heavy rainfall possible. Somewhat unsettled conditions are expected through much of next week with scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 940 AM EDT Saturday... Key messages: - Weak frontal boundary lifts northward this morning with low pressure translating along the front this afternoon. Areas near and north of the boundary will see periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall. - A flood watch has been issued for portions of southern Virginia. - A few strong storms are possible along and south of the front this afternoon and evening. Late morning analysis shows high pressure well off the SE CONUS with a weak front slowly making northward progress across NC and into VA. Aloft, a broad positively-tilted trough is noted over the Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes, resulting in SW flow over the region. Satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies across the region. Latest radar also showing scattered showers over the area, with one particular stationary shower over Gloucester County producing very heavy rainfall over the past couple hours. Expect the front to continue to lift north this morning with an increasing chance for showers and a few storms. Skies will be mostly cloudy today with widespread showers and storms possible this afternoon into the evening. Temperatures will be held down by cloud cover and showers with highs ranging from the upper 70s NW to the mid 80s SE. A shortwave trough in the flow aloft will result in weak low pressure forming along the frontal boundary which will serve to enhance lift and low level convergence along and north of the front this afternoon. HREF guidance shows the greatest precip coverage and probabilities of 3"/3 hours generally along the US 460 corridor today, though the latest CAMs have shifted the axis slightly S to near or just N of the NC/VA border. WPC has included a small Slight Risk area from the VA/NC border northward into the I-64 corridor today. At this time, the greatest threat for heavy rainfall and flooding appears to be in the vicinity of the Williamsburg area and WPC shows some concern for locally significant flooding here. Given the efficient rainfall rates this morning and the continued potential for slow-moving showers/storms this afternoon (with some building instability), have decided to raise a flood watch that roughly aligns with WPC`s slight ERO. This is for areas N of the NC/VA border, approximately to the Richmond Metro and points NE on the Middle Peninsula and nrn Neck. Left out the eastern shore as they have seen less rain recently and are usually less flood-prone. As low pressure translates east along the front late this afternoon and evening, PoPs will be focused across the SE third of the area and near the coast/offshore after midnight. Enhanced flow aloft will result in 25-30 kt of shear this afternoon and evening along and south of the frontal boundary. Strong straight line winds locally heavy rainfall are the main threats from convection this afternoon and evening. SPC has areas near and south of the VA/NC border in a Marginal Risk. Lows tonight range from the mid/upper 60s N and NW to the low 70s SE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 430 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages... - Lower coverage of showers and storms on Sunday as the front meanders from central NC into VA in the afternoon. The front gets pushed into NC in the wake of weak low pressure. Shower and storm chances will be focused over the southern third of the area on Sunday. Fewer clouds and showers across the northern half of the area will result in slightly higher temps Sunday afternoon with highs ranging from the upper 80s N and NW with mid 80s to the S. Some break in the humid conditions is expected for the northern half of the area with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s while areas south of the I-64 corridor will maintain dew points in the mid 70s and PWAT values greater than 2". Overnight lows fall into the upper 60s to low 70s. Not much change in the overall synoptic pattern on Monday with continued SW flow aloft and deep moisture over the region. The front is forecast to lift north of the area on Monday so there will be less forcing in the low levels to focus shower and storm chances. That said, diurnally driven convection is likely across the area with locally heavy rainfall possible just about anywhere in region. Highs Monday stay in the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows again in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 100 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Continued unsettled this coming week with deep moisture in place and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. The remainder of next week will see little change in the overall pattern across the region with continued SW flow aloft. Bermuda high offshore will maintain a feed of deep moisture into the region with PWAT values generally aoa 2". Showers and storms will generally follow a diurnal cycle, generally forming over inland areas in the afternoon and spreading toward the coast in the evening. Have maintained likely PoPs each afternoon through Friday with somewhat lower chances on Saturday. There are indications that this stagnant/wet pattern may take a break by next weekend as sfc high pressure builds to our north and pushes a cold front south of the area. Highs will be in the mid-upr 80s to around 90 degrees Wednesday, then a few degrees cooler for the latter half of the week with highs in the mid 80s. Overnight lows continue in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Saturday... Flying conditions continue to remain quite variable this afternoon. SCT-BKN MVFR CIGs are noted at most sites, with the exception of SBY. A frontal boundary will serve to trigger additional showers and storms and localized flight restrictions are likely in any convection. The highest coverage is expected to set up in the I-64 corridor of SE VA, extending down into NE NC this evening. Only isolated activity is expected up toward SBY. Winds remain VRB through this afternoon (SE at SBY) at 5-10 kt. Rain/storms taper off tonight, with calm/light winds. Cannot rule out some patchy fog overnight, depending on the placement of today`s rainfall. Will not include any VSBY restrictions in the TAFs at this time. CIGs again lower with the highest confidence around SBY (MVFR likely w/ IFR possible). Outlook: Unsettled conditions continue Sunday through Wednesday with daily chances of mainly aftn/evening showers/tstms. && .MARINE... As of 250 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - A warm front lifts north through the area today, bringing light and variable winds. - Prevailing sub-advisory conditions are expected to continue through at least early next week, although afternoon/evening thunderstorms are possible each day. A warm front is slowly moving north across nrn NC early this morning, with E-SE winds of 5-10 kt over the waters and 2-3 ft seas/1-2 ft waves. The front is progged to continue to lift north across part of the area today before stalling as weak sfc low pressure tracks along it. The weak low moves offshore tonight. Winds will generally be E-SE at ~10 kt today, with S-SE winds south of the front (over the far SE VA/NE NC coastal waters). Winds become variable this evening as the low tracks over the waters before turning to the W-NW tonight (and remaining well below SCA thresholds). Despite the prevailing sub-SCA conditions, scattered to numerous tstms could produce locally higher gusts (especially from midday through this evening). Light and variable winds are expected Sunday with continuing shower/storm chances. S/SW winds become more established Monday and especially the middle of next week as the pressure gradient tightens between Bermuda high pressure offshore and weak low pressure well to our NW. It still looks to remain predominantly sub-SCA through the period, outside of brief higher wind gusts from convection. Waves in the bay average 1-2 ft while seas average 2-3 ft. Seas increase to 3-4 ft across the northern waters mid-late this week as SSW winds become a bit more elevated (but still below SCA thresholds). Will continue with a moderate rip current risk across the northern beaches this weekend, with a low rip risk for VA Beach/Eastern Currituck. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ065>068- 078>090-092-093-095>098-512>516-518-520-523>525. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RHR NEAR TERM...RHR/SW SHORT TERM...RHR LONG TERM...JDM/RHR AVIATION...RHR/SW MARINE...ERI/SW