191
FXUS61 KAKQ 210742
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
342 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Not as wet today with the front dropping south. Unsettled
conditions are expected through much of next week with scattered
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each
day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Drier today with a few showers and storms spreading back into the
  region this evening and tonight.

Weak low pressure has moved offshore early this morning with the
trailing cold front now in central NC. Flow aloft remains out of the
SW between high pressure off the coast and a broad trough stretching
from the Midwest into eastern Canada.

Precip pushed into NC and offshore but widespread low stratus and
fog have developed across the region. Fog could become dense later
this morning, especially along and west of I-85 in the Piedmont.
With the front south of the area today, will see much less coverage
of showers and storms. CAM guidance does show some precip near the
VA/NC border this afternoon but most of the area will dry out today.
Clouds will be thinner across the northern half of the area while
partly to mostly cloudy conditions persist across the south.
Temperatures rise into the upper 80s to around 90 N with mid 80s S.
The front returns northward this afternoon into tonight with
increasing PoPs for the southern CWA. Some instability will follow
the front so have a mention of thunder this evening and tonight.
Lows generally around 70 degrees with skies becoming mostly cloudy
area-wide after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages...

- Widespread showers and storms return with potential for locally
  heavy rainfall and flash flooding on Monday.

Deep SW flow will allow 2+ inch PWATs surge back northward on
Monday. A shortwave trough in the flow aloft will enhance lift
across the area and encourage the development of a weak surface low.
Details on exactly which areas will see the greatest coverage of
showers and storms are unclear but there is the potential for
another round of locally heavy rainfall and associated flash
flooding across the region. WPC has a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall over the area both Monday and Tuesday. Deep moist profiles
will tend to limit the potential for severe weather. Mostly cloudy
skies prevail on Monday with high temps in the mid 80s. Showers and
storms linger into the evening and near the coast after midnight
with low temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Showers and storms expected again on Tuesday but less upper level
support suggest more scattered afternoon/evening coverage. PWATs
remain anomalously high, however, so localized areas of flooding
will remain a possibility. High temps inch upward to around 90
degrees Tuesday afternoon. Showers and storms continue into the
evening and overnight hours with lows 70-75 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled period continues through the end of the work week.

- Drier air and lower precip chances possible this weekend behind a
  cold front.

Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and storms will
be possible each day through Friday. A weak lee trough is forecast
to develop across the Piedmont which will tend to focus shower/storm
development inland during the afternoon, spreading toward the coast
in the evening and overnight. Deep moisture will favor partly to
mostly cloudy skies through the end of the week with high temps
staying in the 80s (near to just below seasonal norms). Overnight
lows will continue in the upper 60s to low 70s. A cold front
potentially crosses the region early Saturday which could bring
lower humidity and finally shunt the deep moisture and highest
precip chances to the south for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Sunday...

Challenging aviation forecast this morning with
VFR/MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions noted on area observations. Will
depend heavily on TEMPO groups as observations have been and
continue to jump around. IFR CIGs prevail at SBY but expect
some improvement toward sunrise. VFR has prevailed at RIC so far
this morning but do expect at least periodic MVFR departures
with IFR forecast near sunrise. The SE terminals will see
variable conditions with MVFR likely to prevail with departures
to IFR. MVFR conditions will persist into mid morning before all
terminals improve to VFR this afternoon. Winds are light and
variable this morning, becoming SE 5-10 kt by the
afternoon/evening. Showers and storms spread in from the SW this
evening and tonight with localized flight restrictions.

Unsettled conditions continue through Thursday with daily chances
of mainly aftn/evening showers/tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Prevailing sub-advisory conditions are expected to continue
  this week, although thunderstorms are possible each day
  (mainly during the afternoon/evening).

Yesterday`s warm front has moved back to the south of the waters as
a cold front, with WNW winds of 5-15 kt and 2-3 ft seas/1-2 ft
waves early this morning. Prevailing sub-SCA conditions are
expected this week, with light and variable winds today as the
pressure gradient relaxes. Winds become S at 5-10 kt tonight.
Winds then veer to the SSW and will average 10-15 kt from
Monday-Thursday, as the pressure gradient tightens between
Bermuda high pressure offshore and weak low pressure well to our
NW. A weak cold front tries to approach the waters Fri
night/Sat. Despite the prevailing sub-SCA conditions, tstms
will be possible each day (mainly during the aftn/evening).
Brief higher gusts are likely with the convection. Waves on the
bay average 1-2 ft through Tue, and will build to 2-3 ft by
Wed/Thu. Seas average 2-3 ft early this week, and increase to
3-4 ft by Tue night/Wed as SSW winds become a bit more elevated
(but still below SCA thresholds).

Will continue with a moderate rip current risk across the northern
beaches today, with a low rip risk for VA Beach/Eastern
Currituck.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...ERI