Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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896 FXUS61 KAKQ 161424 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1024 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions prevail through Wednesday. An unsettled period returns late Wednesday through Thursday, as a cold front pushes through the area and stalls across the Carolinas. Shower chances focus mainly over southern Virginia and North Carolina Friday, then return to all zones by Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1020 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Excessive Heat Warning today for Southeast Virginia and much of Northeast North Carolina, Heat Advisory for the remainder of the area with the exception of the MD beaches. - Marginal SVR risk this aftn/evening across the north. The forecast remains largely on track this morning, with only some minor adjustments to the temperatures and dewpoints to account for the latest trends. Heat headlines remain in effect, with Excessive Heat Warnings for the SE and Heat Advisories elsewhere (only the MD beaches are not in any heat headline). Dew pts yesterday mixed down farther to the SE than anticipated (into the mid 60s to around 70F into Hampton roads), and therefore yesterday`s Excessive Heat did not reach much above 105 heat indices. Today, with the upper ridge becoming centered off the SE coast, and a stronger low level SW flow, expect dew pts will not mix down as much as yesterday. The combination of heat and humidity is therefore expected to peak today. The consensus is for 850mb temperatures a touch higher than Monday as well (rising to 22-23C this aftn). Highs are expected to be mostly in the range of 97-101F except for locally cooler conditions at the immediate coast. Dew pts will likely avg in the mid to upper 70s this aftn over NE NC and mid 70s in SE VA. While they mix down to some extent, most of metro RIC will probably see them in the lower 70s this aftn. Peak heat indices of 105-109F are expected for much of the area and 110F+ in the warning (locally ~115F possible in some areas on interior NE NC). Note that heat indices are quite sensitive to just 1 degree variation in T/Td so a few sites only in the Advisory could briefly touch 110F. The CAMs a bit split on where the highest chances will be, the HRW NSSL rather aggressive compared to the HRRR. Overall, there is a bit higher chc for storms developing along the mountains and drifting ESE through the aftn. PoPs are 15-25%, with less the 15% along the Atlantic Coast of the Eastern Shore. One thing is that the models do show some increase in mid level lapse rates late this aftn (to at least 6C in the H7-H5 layer over the north), so this could allow storms to develop with stronger updrafts and will need to watch the trends late this morning into the aftn. SPC has a marginal risk for SVR across the north for wind/hail. A few storms possible into the evening, then diminishing overnight. Warm and humid again Tuesday night (probably the warmest night with lows in the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Remaining hot Wednesday and humid area-wide but with a higher coverage of storms by afternoon (heat headlines are likely for some or most of the area but details are more uncertain). - Showers/tstms become fairly widespread late Wed/Wed night through Thursday. Slight/Marginal SVR risk late Wed, heavy rain threat (especially south Thu). The models remain in decent agreement that Wednesday will be the last day of hot conditions as the upper ridge eventually breaks down, as a strong upper trough translates SE from north central US to the Great Lakes. Dew pts will be more uniform area-wide (in the mid 70s inland with upper 70s SE), due to moisture pooling along a pre-frontal trough. Highs will be a few degrees less Wednesday (mid- upper 90s) but the higher dew pts may lead to similar heat indices with 110F+ possible in the E and SE. 1The 00Z/16 guidance is about the same with showers/tstms later Wednesday aftn into Wednesday evening, supporting likely PoPs in the W by mid-late aftn. A few stronger tstms are possible initially given a well mixed BL and a high pw airmass (SPC has the N in a Slight Risk and MArginal elsewhere). Continued warm and humid Wednesday night with lows in the lower to mid 70s and the potential for showers and embedded tstms lingering overnight as a cold front approaches from the NW. Models remain in fairly good agreement that the upper level trough pushes from the upper Great Lakes to New England Thursday, but flattens out to the south as it approaches the strong/persistent upper level ridge anchored well offshore of the SE US coast. The highest chances for showers/storms Thursday (~70%) will be for southern VA/NE NC, with 50-60% N). Locally heavy rainfall will certainly be possible during this timeframe, especially south. Highs Thursday will be highly dependent upon the timing of the front, for now expecting mid 80s to near 90F. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Heavier rain pushes south Thursday night as cold front stalls just south of the area on Friday. - Daily scattered rain chances persist as the front lifts back north into the area. Temperatures near to slightly below normal. As the upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into New England Thursday night into early Friday, a strong enough shortwave is expected to slide by during the same timeframe, helping push the cold front just south of our CWA. This will make the highest rain chances move farther southeast late Thursday evening. Drier air will attempt to push into the northern tier of the area on Friday as high pressure drops into the Great Lakes/western New England region. Dewpoints across the north look to fall into the low to mid 60s on Friday, and with high temperatures in the mid 80s, it will be a fairly pleasant day. On the other hand, southern/southeastern locations will keep the humidity in place allowing for some chc for continued rain and storms to continue on Friday especially NE NC). Models then indicate that the upper level area of high pressure offshore will retrograde back to the west closer to the Southeast coast by the weekend. The stalled front will then lift back north into the local area keeping daily scattered rain chances in place. Dewpoints in the 70s will creep back northward, but thankfully temperatures will remain in the mid-upper 80s for the weekend into early next week, keeping the excessive heat/humidity at bay. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 700 AM EDT Tuesday... Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 12z TAF period. There will be isolated late aftn/evening showers/tstms that would bring brief flight restrictions and gusty winds, but the coverage is too low to include any mention in TAFs for now. SCt high clouds early , SCT cumulus developing in the aftn. The wind should generally be SSW 10-15kt (with gusts to 20kt) late this morning into the aftn. A cold front approaches from the NW Wednesday aftn with an increasing chc of showers/tstms later Wednesday aftn into Wednesday night. This front will push through the area Thursday with a continued chc of showers/tstms. Periodic flight restrictions are expected later Wednesday into Thursday. The front will push farther S on Friday as drier air attempts to push in from the NW, and then the boundary lifts back N Saturday. The chc for showers/tstms is less Friday (except over far SE VA/NE NC) and then increases again Saturday. && .MARINE... As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday... Key messages: - Small Craft Advisories are possible late Wednesday into Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. High pressure well offshore is resulting in sub-SCA SW winds 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt along the eastern Ches Bay and coastal waters while the western half of the bay, tidal rivers, and Currituck Sound are ~10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Waves are 1-2 ft with seas 2-3 ft. SW winds continue today, increasing to 10-15 kt by late afternoon. A period of SCA winds is possible late tonight into early Wednesday in the Ches Bay but given marginal speeds and relatively short duration will not issue any headlines with this forecast. SW flow persists on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Latest guidance continues to show the potential for a period SCA conditions Wednesday evening into Thursday as pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front. The front now looks to move through the northern half of the area on Thursday morning, stalling across the southern waters before moving just south of the area by Friday morning. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorm are possible Wed/Thur ahead of the front, some of which could be strong to severe with locally enhanced winds/waves/seas. Waves in the bay maintain 1-2 ft today with 2-3 ft possible overnight and Wednesday with the stronger SW winds. Seas will generally stay 2-3 ft today but increase to 3-4 ft tonight. A period of 4-5 ft seas is possible Wednesday night into Thursday for the northern coastal waters. Flow becomes N and NE 5-10 kt behind the front on Friday. Low rip current risk at all beaches today. A moderate rip current risk is forecast for the northern beaches Wednesday and Thursday. && .CLIMATE... No record highs or record high mins were set Monday, records are possible today and Wed. - Record Highs: - Site: Tue 7/16 Wed 7/17 - RIC: 101 (1980) 100 (1980) - ORF: 102 (1879) 100 (1887) - SBY: 99 (1915) 99 (2012) - ECG: 98 (1995) 99 (1942) - Record High Mins: - Site: Tue 7/16 Wed 7/17 - RIC: 77 (1983) 76 (2005) - ORF: 80 (1995) 80 (2021) - SBY: 78 (2013) 80 (1983) - ECG: 79 (2012) 80 (2019) - Highest 1-hr Heat Index Value on record (P.O.R. 1948-2024): - RIC: 117 (7/17/1980) - ORF: 118 (8/18/2017) - SBY: 122 (7/15/1995) - ECG: 119 (7/5/1999) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>024. NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012-102. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ013>017-030>032. VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062- 064>069-075>089-092-099-100-509>522. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ090- 093-095>098-523>525. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...AJB/LKB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...LKB/JKP AVIATION...ERI/LKB MARINE...RHR CLIMATE...AKQ