179
FXAK67 PAJK 111820
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1020 AM AKDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.UPDATE...Aviation update for 18z issuance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION....ISSUED AT 602 AM Fri Jul 11...

SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/ Last night`s front has mostly
moved into Canada this morning with winds and rain diminishing as
it went. In its wake is general SW onshore flow and at least one
embedded short wave. The short wave is right along the outer
coast as of 4 am and is bringing another shot of more organized
rain to the panhandle mainly for this morning. Expect around a
quarter to a half an inch of additional rainfall for areas south
of Sumner Strait this morning before rains lighten up again. After
that showers with lighter rainfall amounts are expected through
Friday night as onshore flow continues.

Winds have been a mixed bag with lighter northerly wind in the
northern inner channels, while the south has remained southerly
up to 20 kt especially in Clarence Strait. The winds across the
south are expected to lighten into this afternoon as the short
wave moves inland and then into Canada today. Across the north the
northerly winds are expected to switch around to the south again
today as the short wave moves by and then increase up to 25 kt
this evening for Northern Lynn and Skagway as some ridging builds
over the panhandle in the wake of the short wave. Expect the
winds to linger through the night. This is an increase from the
previous forecast (pressure gradients up to -2.5 mb between
Skagway and Juneau support it), and a delay in the onset of the
higher winds (trailing shortwave delayed the building of the ridge
over the panhandle)

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/

Key messages:
- A weak low continues precip for southern panhandle Saturday
- High pushes up from the south, dry but clouds linger next week

Details: Another low moves into the eastern gulf Saturday
morning. The atmospheric river helping to fuel the previous front
will shift south, but not before sending another small plume of
moisture to the southern panhandle Saturday afternoon. A lingering
upper level low and an embedded shortwave trough will help direct
the small front onshore. The front will reach the panhandle by
early Saturday morning, bringing moderate to fresh SE sustained
winds (13 to 30 mph) to the southern coast and channel entrances
with strong southerly gusts midday in Dixon Entrance. Between 0.3
and 0.5 inches of precipitation are expected in 24 hours, with
greatest amounts impacting Ketchikan and higher elevations. Rates
are expected to remain light with ~0.1 inches of rain in 6 hours.
EFIs have indicated a very minor increase in QPF potential in the
12Z run, though the strongest impacts remain south of the
panhandle. Ridging moving north through the gulf will push the low
out of the panhandle and set up for potential drier weather
Sunday afternoon, though clouds are still expected to linger
through the beginning of next week. Another low looks to bring
precipitation back to the panhandle Wednesday. Temperatures are
still slightly below normal, though with the drier weather coming
up next week there is potential for highs in the mid to high 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...Lower ceilings from 600 to 2500 feet for most of
Southeast Alaska this morning likely continuing into afternoon to
overnight. The Northeast gulf coast picked up less rain from this
event, and is VFR tonight Ceilings of 5 to 7 thousand feet, and
they will have the best flying weather generally. Do expect them
to lower over night to 1000 to 2000 feet.


From 12z / Friday morning dawns with widespread MVFR conditions,
as a departing system continues to impact the southern half of the
panhandle, while a weaker secondary wave moves across the
northern half of the area. A few locations have even dropped into
IFR due to low stratus. Expect that conditions will broadly
improve as we head past the morning and into the afternoon hours,
with ceilings lifting to 2k - 4k feet depending on the locations.
Fog that formed in a few locations overnight will dissipate by 10
AM. Winds will diminish across the southern panhandle through the
day, although a weak system arriving in the northern half of the
panhandle will see winds strengthen again somewhat from Sitka
north.

Precip will diminish across the southern panhandle, with
drier conditions expected by the afternoon. Rain showers linger
across the outer coast and the northern half of the panhandle as
the previously mentioned weaker system sweeps through. Expect
occasional drops in ceilings and visibilities as showers move
through across the northern half of the panhandle. Another system
arriving Saturday will largely focus on the southern half of the
panhandle, bringing with it deteriorating conditions to those
parts of the area.

&&

.MARINE...Inside Waters: Southerly winds up to 20 kt are blowing
across the southern inner channels while the northern inner
channels are north at around 10 kt or so. Exceptions are Point
Couverden, and Young Bay where 20 kt winds are blowing this
morning. The southern channels will mainly feature diminishing to
near steady winds through the next 24 hours. That changes into
Saturday as a new system moves into the southern panhandle. S
winds are expected to increase to around 25 kt mainly for Clarence
Strait (though some isolated areas could see higher) before
diminishing again Saturday night. The north is a different story.
Starting northerly this morning, it will switch to southerly by
afternoon before increasing during the early evening hours.
Northerly Lynn in particular will likely see winds up to 25 kt
Friday night before diminishing on Saturday. By Saturday night,
winds in the north may actually switch to north again as the
system approaching the south moves in.

Outside waters: Winds in the gulf have diminishing since the
front moved though last night (down to 10 to 15 kt) and switched
to mainly SW direction through seas are still somewhat elevated (8
to 9 ft combined seas mainly from wind wave of 8 sec from the
south). Not much change expected through Friday evening with the
exception of slowly lowering seas, however late Friday into
Saturday sees a new system move across the SE gulf bringing a
switch to SE wind directions and an increase in winds to 25 kt
across the SE near coastal waters. Winds decrease in the wake of
that system with a direction change to NW by Sunday as ridging
builds over the gulf. Sea past Friday night remain mostly around 5
to 7 ft with a SW swell of 2 to 3 ft (period 13 sec).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...24 hour rainfall across the south has measured
around 0.5 to 2 inches with rivers responding, but most staying
within their banks. Except for another brief burst of rain
expected early this morning rainfall should be transitioning to
showers with diminishing rainfall rates. The advisory for Ward
Lake continues through 11:45 am, but other than that no other
flooding is expected nor has been observed. Another system is
taking aim at the southern panhandle for Saturday with 0.5 to 1
inch of rainfall expected from Saturday morning through Saturday
night though that rainfall should be more spread out rather then
all of it coming in a shorter period of time so no additional
flooding is expect.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....ZTK
AVIATION...GFS/Bezenek
MARINE...EAL
HYDROLOGY...EAL

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau