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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
254 FXAK67 PAJK 151408 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 608 AM AKDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .SHORT TERM.../Through Tonight/...A SFC ridge will continue building in over the Gulf with cloud cover continuing to decrease over the Panhandle through tonight. With mostly clear skies overnight and light winds, the northern and central Panhandle may, once again, see some minor fog development due to some residual SFC moisture from the recent rains. Any fog that does develop should dissipate fairly quickly through the early morning hours on Friday as daytime temperatures begin to climb with highs ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s for the majority of the Panhandle. As mentioned above, winds look to be largely unimpressive through the short term forecast period. Similar to Wednesday, the inside waters can expect sea breezes to reach up to around 15 kt by the afternoon today for Clarence Strait, with westerly flow pushing in along Icy Strait, as well. In the SE Gulf, winds will build up to around 25 kt as the gradient tightens today into early Friday morning before slackening heading into the long term forecast period. For more info on the warm weekend ahead, see the long term discussion... .LONG TERM...Overall pattern of drying and warming weather to end the work week remains on track in the long term forecast period. For Friday, there is a decaying system set to pass into the northern gulf moving east from Cook Inlet. However, there is decent model uncertainty in regards to if this system will remain organized enough to bring appreciable precipitation to the NE gulf coast. This will largely depend on the strength of the ridge in the gulf and upper level support. Overall though this would likely still keep the inside waters predominantly dry, though residual cloud cover can`t be ruled out. By Sunday, there is more model agreement in an embedded short wave trough trying to bring some light precipitation to the northern panhandle while the southern panhandle looks to continue to remain dry until the start of next week. With the ridge in place and diminishing cloud cover, daytime highs are expected to gradually increase heading into the weekend for most of the panhandle. With the ridge in the central gulf strengthening, the gradient over the SE gulf will increase and produce winds of around 25 kt by Thursday night and continue through Friday. For the inside waters, afternoon sea breezes under clearing skies are the primary action. However, with the ridge building in and low pressure passing through the Canadian interior, Taiya Inlet and up the Klondike Highway will likely see winds of 25 kt with higher gusts on Friday. && .AVIATION...Ridging aloft with an low developing in central British Columbia help clear the panhandle of clouds. Therefore, VFR conditions, sea breezes, and the eventual development of a marine layer is back on the menu. Expect this marine layer to be hovering around 1500 - 2000 feet CIGS in the outer coast beginning this afternoon. This marine layer does not look to extend into outer coast land areas at this time, however, a slight shift in overnight wind directions will change this outcome. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661-662. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLC LONG TERM....EAB AVIATION...NC Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau