254
FXAK67 PAJK 151408
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
608 AM AKDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tonight/...A SFC ridge will continue
building in over the Gulf with cloud cover continuing to decrease
over the Panhandle through tonight. With mostly clear skies
overnight and light winds, the northern and central Panhandle may,
once again, see some minor fog development due to some residual
SFC moisture from the recent rains. Any fog that does develop
should dissipate fairly quickly through the early morning hours on
Friday as daytime temperatures begin to climb with highs ranging
from the mid 60s to lower 70s for the majority of the Panhandle.

As mentioned above, winds look to be largely unimpressive through
the short term forecast period. Similar to Wednesday, the inside
waters can expect sea breezes to reach up to around 15 kt by the
afternoon today for Clarence Strait, with westerly flow pushing
in along Icy Strait, as well. In the SE Gulf, winds will build up
to around 25 kt as the gradient tightens today into early Friday
morning before slackening heading into the long term forecast
period. For more info on the warm weekend ahead, see the long
term discussion...

.LONG TERM...Overall pattern of drying and warming weather to end
the work week remains on track in the long term forecast period.
For Friday, there is a decaying system set to pass into the
northern gulf moving east from Cook Inlet. However, there is
decent model uncertainty in regards to if this system will remain
organized enough to bring appreciable precipitation to the NE gulf
coast. This will largely depend on the strength of the ridge in
the gulf and upper level support. Overall though this would likely
still keep the inside waters predominantly dry, though residual
cloud cover can`t be ruled out. By Sunday, there is more model
agreement in an embedded short wave trough trying to bring some
light precipitation to the northern panhandle while the southern
panhandle looks to continue to remain dry until the start of next
week. With the ridge in place and diminishing cloud cover, daytime
highs are expected to gradually increase heading into the weekend
for most of the panhandle.

With the ridge in the central gulf strengthening, the gradient
over the SE gulf will increase and produce winds of around 25 kt
by Thursday night and continue through Friday. For the inside
waters, afternoon sea breezes under clearing skies are the primary
action. However, with the ridge building in and low pressure
passing through the Canadian interior, Taiya Inlet and up the
Klondike Highway will likely see winds of 25 kt with higher gusts
on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Ridging aloft with an low developing in central
British Columbia help clear the panhandle of clouds. Therefore,
VFR conditions, sea breezes, and the eventual development of a
marine layer is back on the menu. Expect this marine layer to be
hovering around 1500 - 2000 feet CIGS in the outer coast beginning
this afternoon. This marine layer does not look to extend into
outer coast land areas at this time, however, a slight shift in
overnight wind directions will change this outcome.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM....EAB
AVIATION...NC

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