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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
065 FXAK67 PAJK 151531 CCA AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Juneau AK 731 AM AKDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .SHORT TERM.../Through Tonight/...A SFC ridge will continue building in over the Gulf with cloud cover continuing to decrease over the Panhandle through tonight. With mostly clear skies overnight and light winds, the northern and central Panhandle may, once again, see some minor fog development due to some residual SFC moisture from the recent rains. Any fog that does develop should dissipate fairly quickly through the early morning hours on Friday as daytime temperatures begin to climb with highs ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s for the majority of the Panhandle. As mentioned above, winds look to be largely unimpressive through the short term forecast period. Similar to Wednesday, the inside waters can expect sea breezes to reach up to around 15 kt by the afternoon today for Clarence Strait, with westerly flow pushing in along Icy Strait, as well. In the SE Gulf, winds will build up to around 25 kt as the gradient tightens today into early Friday morning before slackening heading into the long term forecast period. For more info on the warm weekend ahead, see the long term discussion. .LONG TERM...A ridge will continue to move toward the panhandle through this weekend causing dry and warmer weather. Temperatures are expected to increase into the 70s in the central panhandle and high 70s into low 80s for the southern panhandle. The highest of these temperatures are expected Sunday. Confidence has continued to increase on these temperatures trending higher. One thing that has helped to increase this confidence is warm air advection at 850mb helping to increase these surface temperatures. Areas along the coast will be the only places to not see these high surface temperatures because a marine layer bringing in clouds is expected to keep temperatures cooler. This marine layer will be due to a low inversion level as the ridge goes past, and we see upper level warming. This means low level moisture will bring in lower clouds and this marine layer. As for precipitation, the first front we see is weak and breaks apart quickly as it moves toward the panhandle. There will be second ridge that will build in the gulf Saturday night to help continue that dry trend. Precipitation probabilities were lowered Sunday due to higher confidence of that ridge brining a warm and dry pattern. Other concerns involve wind speeds in the southern gulf Friday with a pinch in the pressure gradient creating strong breezes. These winds are expected to weaken as the ridge moves south of the panhandle. We may see these stronger winds again as the second ridge starts to come through Sunday. Winds are also expected to increase in the afternoon for Northern Lynn Canal as sea breezes occur. These winds are expected to reach 15-20kts during nightly over the weekend. && .AVIATION...Ridging aloft with a low developing in central British Columbia helps clear the panhandle of clouds. Therefore, VFR conditions, sea breezes, and the eventual development of a marine layer is back on the menu. Expect this marine layer to be hovering around 1500 - 2000 feet CIGS becoming prevailing over the gulf beginning this afternoon. This marine layer does not look to extend into outer coast land areas at this time, however, a slight shift in overnight wind directions will change this outcome. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661-662. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLC LONG TERM....EAB AVIATION...NC Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau