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FXAK67 PAJK 162248
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
248 PM AKDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.SHORT TERM.../through Saturday night/...

Quick hits:
-Quiet and clear weather continues for SE AK.
-Main exception is the Yakutat area and along the coast where clouds
and light rain/sprinkles will slide in from the northwest.
-Saturday morning temps will be a bit chilly for some, dipping into
the 40s. Which is below normal for mid-August.
-Saturday afternoon temps will be above normal for mid-August, in
the upper 60s to 70s.

The details:
Lingering 500mb ridge will keep the overall weather story more or
less the same. That being said, the surface ridge looks to weaken,
which may bring in some light rain and/or sprinkles to parts of
the northeast coast, including Yakutat down to Pelican. There is
some evidence that clouds and sprinkles could drift south and
east, towards Hoonah, Gustavus, and Sitka but not enough to be
confident enough to put it in the gridded forecast. Elsewhere in
SE AK will be clear to partly cloudy through the short term.

The wind forecast has been difficult to get down. For example,
the winds at the intersection of Icy Strait, Northern Chatham, and
Southern Lynn have been over-performing with reports of 15 to 25
knots. At the same time, Eldred Rock in Lynn Canal has been under-
performing with wind speeds around 1 to 5 knots.

Going forward, with the surface pressure pattern not changing
much, decided to keep with current conditions and repeated
trends. The exception is Lynn Canal, where the pressure gradient
is increasing, so there is still hope the winds in Lynn will pick
up late this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Confidence is still strong that near record
temperatures will occur in the central and southern panhandle
Sunday. After Sunday, temperatures for these areas will start to
cool slightly into the mid 60s low 70s for the rest of the period.
This is due to incoming clouds that will be over the panhandle
starting Monday. Along the coast a marine layer is still expected
to develop Sunday leaving temperatures cooler in those areas.

With the expected marine layer there is a chance to see drizzle in
the same areas while the rest of the panhandle remains dry
Sunday. By Monday, a low in the far northern gulf will bring rain.
This rain will begin Monday afternoon for the north and make its
way south by Monday night. This rain will end Tuesday afternoon.
Although rain is expected, it will be light and have little
accumulation. Values expected are between 0.10 to 0.25 inches for
most of SE Alaska. After this day of rain, chances of
precipitation drop for Wednesday. There is another chance later in
the week, but there is uncertainty with timing.

Few impacts are expected with wind. The important impact areas
will be sea breezes on Sunday and winds in the northern inner
channels as the low moves over Monday. Lynn Canal and Taiya Inlet
will continue to see strong breezes with tightening in the
pressure gradient. Then confidence has built that Cross Sound and
Icy Straight will see strong breezes Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR still expected throughout all of the panhandle
with the exception of PAYA and possibly PASI (toward morning) as
the marine layer works in to the coast late today and tonight.
Some upper level clouds moving in from the NW and already over
PAYA, making their way to the Northern Panhandle in the evening.
The sea breeze will pick up over northern Lynn Canal and Taiya
Inlet/Skagway this afternoon...but no significant wind shear
is expected as a result.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....EAB
AVIATION...JG

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