519
FXAK67 PAJK 071828
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1028 AM AKDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.UPDATE...18z Aviation Discussion Update

&&

.SHORT TERM...Complex picture to describe this morning as mid-
level features are overshadowing the surface ones on satellite.
Broad low pressure troughing across the eastern gulf, at the
surface, extends to a low off the southern outer coast. This low
and trough tracks NE across the inner channels through Monday
night while weakening. At the mid-levels, a low center is apparent
on satellite over the NE gulf with bands of vorticity rotating
about it. This PVA will cause showers across the area to be
enhanced from added lift and will be greatest along the outer
coast from Baranof Island northward this morning and again Monday
night for the southern outer coast. Have kept mention of
thunderstorms in these areas for the same time period. Have not
seen any lighting detected, but showers in these areas should
expect to have some heavier rates and gusty winds. Rainfall totals
over the next 24 hours are greatest over Kake and along the
western slopes of the Coast Mountains from Juneau southward with
values of 0.75 to 1.5 inches.

The low pressure system is bringing with it cooler air aloft, as
was seen with the cool high temps over the last 24hrs. Expect that
cool trend to continue today with many places not breaking the
60F mark unless they get a sunny break. The places with the best
chance of breaks in the clouds are Yakutat and the northern inner
channels as the surface low moves over the central/southern inner
channels later this afternoon/evening.

.LONG TERM...
Key messages:
- Moderate rain continues Tuesday focused over the southern
  panhandle.
- A surface ridge allows for a decrease in precipitation Wednesday
  before the next system.
- Another low in the gulf brings moderate
  to heavy rain toward the entire panhandle Thursday into Friday.

Details: The front that moves over the panhandle Monday will
bring times of heavy to moderate precipitation focused on the
southern panhandle. A majority of this rain will fall Monday with
lingering showers into Tuesday. Total precipitation over Tuesday
remains around 0.5 to 1 inch of rain in 24 hours. A majority of
this will come from heavy rain Tuesday morning. Rain will then
begin to diminish Tuesday night into Wednesday as a ridge develops
between our two stronger systems. During this time, onshore flow
will continue allowing for times of light showers to continue on
Wednesday. Then a short break is looking probable Wednesday night
into Thursday as winds in the gulf shift out of the east with a
strong low approaching the central gulf.

Thursday into Friday, with the help of an upper level jet of SW
winds, a low will move into the northern gulf increasing winds and
bringing moderate to heavy rain. Currently, multiple ensembles are
showing the likelihood of >250 kg/m/s of integrated water vapor
transport moving over the panhandle. This supports the increased
chance of heavy rain across the entire panhandle, with the most
precipitation focused again on the southern panhandle. Along with
heavy precipitation, there is a >70% chance of gale force winds
along the NE gulf at this time. That being said, the active weather
continues for SE AK into next weekend as onshore flow with a few
embedded shortwaves will keep the panhandle damp. Stay tuned as
we will continue to update the forecast ahead of this system.

&&

.AVIATION...While there has been some improvement through the
morning hours, conditions across the panhandle still range from
LIFR up to VFR as cloud decks range from 400 ft at times in the
central panhandle all the way up to 6000 ft in northern Lynn
Canal. A true mixed bag as an upper level low slides eastward over
the panhandle and a surface low pushes inland through the central
panhandle later tonight. This means showers and variable CIGs
will continue, with lowest conditions still expected across the
southern half of the panhandle with VIS of 5sm or less in heavier
showers and CIGs below 3000 ft through the afternoon hours,
improving by the evening. Northern panhandle will see continued
lower end VFR conditions through the day, but drop down to MVFR
later Monday night into Tuesday morning as showers become more
numerous.

Only LLWS expected through the TAF period is for the southern
panhandle around Ketchikan through noon, with low level SSE winds
of around 30 kt.

&&

.MARINE...Inside Waters: Two locations with strongest winds this
morning are the common ones, Eldred Rock and Scull Island, both
reading around 20kt. These should ease some through the morning,
but probably only down to 15kt. A weak new low center approaching
from the southwest early Monday morning will cause winds to
increase up to Small Craft level (25kt) for Clarence Strait. As
the low weakens further and passes over the southern and central
inner channels, expect winds to become light to 10 kt and variable
in direction.

.Outside Waters: The barrier jet over the northern Gulf did not
materialize as strong based on observations and winds over this
area will continue to trend down through the day to about 10 kt.
Most of the gulf will have SW winds by this afternoon and W winds
increasing back up to 15-20kt late tonight. A slight chance of
thunderstorms remains in the forecast for portions of the outer
coast over the next 24hrs, however no lightning strikes have been
detected yet. Seas at the Gulf buoys report 4-6ft, with a S swell
which will turn more SWLY through the day.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ferrin
LONG TERM....EAB
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...Ferrin

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