


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
519 FXAK67 PAJK 071828 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 1028 AM AKDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .UPDATE...18z Aviation Discussion Update && .SHORT TERM...Complex picture to describe this morning as mid- level features are overshadowing the surface ones on satellite. Broad low pressure troughing across the eastern gulf, at the surface, extends to a low off the southern outer coast. This low and trough tracks NE across the inner channels through Monday night while weakening. At the mid-levels, a low center is apparent on satellite over the NE gulf with bands of vorticity rotating about it. This PVA will cause showers across the area to be enhanced from added lift and will be greatest along the outer coast from Baranof Island northward this morning and again Monday night for the southern outer coast. Have kept mention of thunderstorms in these areas for the same time period. Have not seen any lighting detected, but showers in these areas should expect to have some heavier rates and gusty winds. Rainfall totals over the next 24 hours are greatest over Kake and along the western slopes of the Coast Mountains from Juneau southward with values of 0.75 to 1.5 inches. The low pressure system is bringing with it cooler air aloft, as was seen with the cool high temps over the last 24hrs. Expect that cool trend to continue today with many places not breaking the 60F mark unless they get a sunny break. The places with the best chance of breaks in the clouds are Yakutat and the northern inner channels as the surface low moves over the central/southern inner channels later this afternoon/evening. .LONG TERM... Key messages: - Moderate rain continues Tuesday focused over the southern panhandle. - A surface ridge allows for a decrease in precipitation Wednesday before the next system. - Another low in the gulf brings moderate to heavy rain toward the entire panhandle Thursday into Friday. Details: The front that moves over the panhandle Monday will bring times of heavy to moderate precipitation focused on the southern panhandle. A majority of this rain will fall Monday with lingering showers into Tuesday. Total precipitation over Tuesday remains around 0.5 to 1 inch of rain in 24 hours. A majority of this will come from heavy rain Tuesday morning. Rain will then begin to diminish Tuesday night into Wednesday as a ridge develops between our two stronger systems. During this time, onshore flow will continue allowing for times of light showers to continue on Wednesday. Then a short break is looking probable Wednesday night into Thursday as winds in the gulf shift out of the east with a strong low approaching the central gulf. Thursday into Friday, with the help of an upper level jet of SW winds, a low will move into the northern gulf increasing winds and bringing moderate to heavy rain. Currently, multiple ensembles are showing the likelihood of >250 kg/m/s of integrated water vapor transport moving over the panhandle. This supports the increased chance of heavy rain across the entire panhandle, with the most precipitation focused again on the southern panhandle. Along with heavy precipitation, there is a >70% chance of gale force winds along the NE gulf at this time. That being said, the active weather continues for SE AK into next weekend as onshore flow with a few embedded shortwaves will keep the panhandle damp. Stay tuned as we will continue to update the forecast ahead of this system. && .AVIATION...While there has been some improvement through the morning hours, conditions across the panhandle still range from LIFR up to VFR as cloud decks range from 400 ft at times in the central panhandle all the way up to 6000 ft in northern Lynn Canal. A true mixed bag as an upper level low slides eastward over the panhandle and a surface low pushes inland through the central panhandle later tonight. This means showers and variable CIGs will continue, with lowest conditions still expected across the southern half of the panhandle with VIS of 5sm or less in heavier showers and CIGs below 3000 ft through the afternoon hours, improving by the evening. Northern panhandle will see continued lower end VFR conditions through the day, but drop down to MVFR later Monday night into Tuesday morning as showers become more numerous. Only LLWS expected through the TAF period is for the southern panhandle around Ketchikan through noon, with low level SSE winds of around 30 kt. && .MARINE...Inside Waters: Two locations with strongest winds this morning are the common ones, Eldred Rock and Scull Island, both reading around 20kt. These should ease some through the morning, but probably only down to 15kt. A weak new low center approaching from the southwest early Monday morning will cause winds to increase up to Small Craft level (25kt) for Clarence Strait. As the low weakens further and passes over the southern and central inner channels, expect winds to become light to 10 kt and variable in direction. .Outside Waters: The barrier jet over the northern Gulf did not materialize as strong based on observations and winds over this area will continue to trend down through the day to about 10 kt. Most of the gulf will have SW winds by this afternoon and W winds increasing back up to 15-20kt late tonight. A slight chance of thunderstorms remains in the forecast for portions of the outer coast over the next 24hrs, however no lightning strikes have been detected yet. Seas at the Gulf buoys report 4-6ft, with a S swell which will turn more SWLY through the day. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ferrin LONG TERM....EAB AVIATION...STJ MARINE...Ferrin Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau