945
FXAK67 PAJK 171404
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
604 AM AKDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tonight/...Once again, improvement back to
partly cloudy to clear skies, dry weather conditions, and warming
temperatures are in store through the period for northwest areas
as the ridge of high pressure over the eastern Gulf and Panhandle
builds back into the region. Throughout the rest of Southeast
Alaska, expect warm, clear, dry conditions to remain in place
through the period. For this afternoon, temperatures will be
above normal for the middle of August, ranging from the mid 60s to
mid 70s across the entire region. Generally, expect winds to be
benign, staying at around 20 knots or less across the area
through tonight with the strongest winds being over the east-
central and southeast Gulf, which is where the pressure gradient
tightens up through the period. With the breaks in the clouds,
afternoon sea breezes and evening land breezes are, once again, in
store. It looks like the ridge will stay the main influencer over
eastern Gulf and Panhandle weather over the next few days.

.LONG TERM...Confidence is still strong that near record
temperatures will occur in the central and southern panhandle
Sunday. After Sunday, temperatures for these areas will start to
cool slightly into the mid 60s low 70s for the rest of the period.
This is due to incoming clouds that will be over the panhandle
starting Monday. Along the coast a marine layer is still expected
to develop Sunday leaving temperatures cooler in those areas.

With the expected marine layer there is a chance to see drizzle in
the same areas while the rest of the panhandle remains dry
Sunday. By Monday, a low in the far northern gulf will bring rain.
This rain will begin Monday afternoon for the north and make its
way south by Monday night. This rain will end Tuesday afternoon.
Although rain is expected, it will be light and have little
accumulation. Values expected are between 0.10 to 0.25 inches for
most of SE Alaska. After this day of rain, chances of
precipitation drop for Wednesday. There is another chance later in
the week, but there is uncertainty with timing.

Few impacts are expected with wind. The important impact areas
will be sea breezes on Sunday and winds in the northern inner
channels as the low moves over Monday. Lynn Canal and Taiya Inlet
will continue to see strong breezes with tightening in the
pressure gradient. Then confidence has built that Cross Sound and
Icy Straight will see strong breezes Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR expected for the panhandle after the marine layer
currently along the NE gulf coast and Icy Strait corridor
retreats later this morning. Extremely localized dense fog over
the Klawock area is already in the process of moving off and
dissipating. Upper level clouds continue to make their way
southward before breaking up in the afternoon. The sea breeze will
pick up yet again over northern Lynn Canal and Taiya
Inlet/Skagway this afternoon but not as strong as Friday. Again,
no shear is expected.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM....EAB
AVIATION...NC

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