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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
945 FXAK67 PAJK 171404 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 604 AM AKDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .SHORT TERM.../Through Tonight/...Once again, improvement back to partly cloudy to clear skies, dry weather conditions, and warming temperatures are in store through the period for northwest areas as the ridge of high pressure over the eastern Gulf and Panhandle builds back into the region. Throughout the rest of Southeast Alaska, expect warm, clear, dry conditions to remain in place through the period. For this afternoon, temperatures will be above normal for the middle of August, ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s across the entire region. Generally, expect winds to be benign, staying at around 20 knots or less across the area through tonight with the strongest winds being over the east- central and southeast Gulf, which is where the pressure gradient tightens up through the period. With the breaks in the clouds, afternoon sea breezes and evening land breezes are, once again, in store. It looks like the ridge will stay the main influencer over eastern Gulf and Panhandle weather over the next few days. .LONG TERM...Confidence is still strong that near record temperatures will occur in the central and southern panhandle Sunday. After Sunday, temperatures for these areas will start to cool slightly into the mid 60s low 70s for the rest of the period. This is due to incoming clouds that will be over the panhandle starting Monday. Along the coast a marine layer is still expected to develop Sunday leaving temperatures cooler in those areas. With the expected marine layer there is a chance to see drizzle in the same areas while the rest of the panhandle remains dry Sunday. By Monday, a low in the far northern gulf will bring rain. This rain will begin Monday afternoon for the north and make its way south by Monday night. This rain will end Tuesday afternoon. Although rain is expected, it will be light and have little accumulation. Values expected are between 0.10 to 0.25 inches for most of SE Alaska. After this day of rain, chances of precipitation drop for Wednesday. There is another chance later in the week, but there is uncertainty with timing. Few impacts are expected with wind. The important impact areas will be sea breezes on Sunday and winds in the northern inner channels as the low moves over Monday. Lynn Canal and Taiya Inlet will continue to see strong breezes with tightening in the pressure gradient. Then confidence has built that Cross Sound and Icy Straight will see strong breezes Monday night. && .AVIATION...VFR expected for the panhandle after the marine layer currently along the NE gulf coast and Icy Strait corridor retreats later this morning. Extremely localized dense fog over the Klawock area is already in the process of moving off and dissipating. Upper level clouds continue to make their way southward before breaking up in the afternoon. The sea breeze will pick up yet again over northern Lynn Canal and Taiya Inlet/Skagway this afternoon but not as strong as Friday. Again, no shear is expected. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLC LONG TERM....EAB AVIATION...NC Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau