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FXAK67 PAJK 030613 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1013 PM AKDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...Evening Update and 06z Aviation Discussion...
No major changes to the forecast this evening other than minor
adjustments to wind directions and speeds within the inner
channels. Strongest winds this evening remain in the N. Lynn canal
with sustained Southerly winds up to 20kts. Elsewhere, overland
and marine winds continue to diminish with widespread wind speeds
around 10kts/12mph or less expected through tonight with
temperatures dropping into the upper 40s to low 50s. Isolated and
intermittent rain showers will continue through early Thursday
afternoon, with general drying trend moving into Thursday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
The vertically stacked low of yesterday is slowly devolving into
an open wave trough over the southern panhandle today. Satellite
imagery denotes a fairly distinct boundary between this feature
producing convective showers over Clarence and Sumner Straits and
lower stratiform clouds over northern Chatham Strait sand
northward through Icy Strait and up Lynn Canal. Showers in the
southern panhandle will continue to diminish through Wednesday
night, while for the northern panhandle, the low level stratiform
clouds will continue to be seeded from above by moisture streaming
from Canada through the evening hours. Precipitation totals are
expected to still be light, continuing the trend from site
observations through the day. With a few pokes of sunshine
breaking through in the south, some areas managed to just reach 60
degrees this afternoon, while the central and northern panhandle
will likely fail due to persistent showers and cloud cover.
However, this blanket will also limit any significant overnight
cooling with low temperatures once more around 50 degrees. With
light winds and plenty of moisture in the boundary layer, patchy
fog may still develop in more sheltered parts of the panhandle
overnight Wednesday. The far southern panhandle will likely see
more breaks in the clouds develop through tonight into Thursday as
it dodges the northeasterly flow from the interior. This will
allow for some warmer temperatures and potential for sea breezes
again in the southern panhandle Thursday.

A weak surface ridge will continue to push its way into the
panhandle Wednesday night into Thursday, with winds expected to
diminish as the trough over the southern panhandle finally gives
up the ghost. Winds for the most part are expected to remain low
for the next few days with the highest winds mainly from sea
breeze circulations during the afternoons and evenings. For more
information on the winds over the Gulf and Inner Channels heading
towards the holiday weekend, check the Marine discussion below.

.LONG TERM...
Key messages:
- A drier trend is expected this weekend with times of light
  showers still expected.
- Temperatures slightly increase to the end of the week into the
  weekend.
- The next low pressure system enters the gulf at the start of
  next week.

Details: Precipitation chances diminish into the weekend as an
area of weak high pressure remains over the eastern Gulf of
Alaska. Even with diminishing precipitation chances, that does not
mean that the panhandle will remain completely dry. Isolated
light to moderate showers will remain possible across the
panhandle in the afternoon hours. Minimum QPF is expected with no
impacts. Along with light showers, an upper level trough will
continue to bring increased cloud cover with broken to overcast
skies. Temperatures at the end of the week begin to return to near
typical values for this time of year with maximum temperatures in
the mid to high 60s. Low temperatures will remain in the low to
mid 50s to end out the week. Winds will mostly remain low into the
weekend with the exception of and sea breezes that develop.

Toward the end of the weekend, a low will slide into the
northwest gulf and a trough extending from it will bring a shift
to more southerly flow over the panhandle and increasing
precipitation rates. The heaviest precipitation currently looks to
be more focused on the northern panhandle than the central and
southern areas for Sunday. Another system will move into the
southern gulf early next week bringing widespread moderate to
heavy rain. Some model discrepancies still exist with the
placement of this feature, however models continue to trend
towards winds increasing along the eastern gulf to fresh to strong
breezes by Tuesday. With continued model spread for this low
pressure system just under a week away, we will continue to
monitor it`s development.

&&

.AVIATION...
General MVFR to VFR flight conditions across the panhandle this
evening with ceilings AoA 2000ft and visibilities 4SM to
prevailing 6SM. Moving into Wednesday night, anticipating
predominant MVFR or worse flight conditions to continue with CIGS
AoB 2000ft with IFR/LIFR potential returning overnight once more
by 10z to 16z with CIGS AoB 1000ft. Highest confidence for IFR
development along the Icy Strait corridor, including Yakutat,
Juneau, and Haines. Showers will diminish across the panhandle
overnight into early Thursday afternoon, becoming more isolated.
Anticipating rebound by 21z Thursday to 00z Friday up to
predominant VFR flight conditions with CIGs AoA 4000ft.

Winds will be near calm and variable overnight, increasing to
around 5 to 10kts through Thursday afternoon. Strongest winds will
be at Skagway with sustained winds up to 15kts with isolated
gusts up to 25kts by Thursday afternoon. No LLWS concerns through
the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Inside Waters: Lynn Canal, Cross Sound, and near Cape Decision
are the spots with the most wind this afternoon though even at
these locations the highest is only 20 kt with mostly southerly or
westerly winds. These winds are expected to diminish overnight
with some areas like Stephens Passage, and Northern Chatham
possibly even turning a light north late. Over the next few days,
lighter winds will mainly be the rule with generally 15 kt of wind
or less expected. Some areas of higher winds up to 20 kt could
develop during the afternoons and evenings if strong sea breezes
happen to develop, but that will mainly be in the northern inner
channels. Seas are mainly 3 ft or less wind wave with little if
any contribution at ocean entrances from incoming swell and that
is expected to continue to be the case for the next few days.

Outside Waters: Gulf waters weather is rather calm with mostly W
winds to 15 kt for the near coastal waters switching to SE for the
central gulf. Seas are very calm with most buoys reporting
combined seas of 2 ft this afternoon. most of that is from a
southerly swell of 2 ft with a period of about 13 seconds.
Relatively calm conditions are expected to continue as most near
shore winds become light overnight. The exception is the southern
gulf where E to SE winds will be increasing to 15 to 20 kt into
Thursday lasting into early Saturday as a weaker low swings by to
the south. Seas are expected to increase because of these higher
winds in the south, but the highest expected are around 5 ft for
the southern near shore waters and 7 ft in the central gulf. Most
of this will be wind wave while a 2 to 3 ft SW swell at around 13
to 16 sec will persist.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....EAB
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...EAL

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