676
FXAK67 PAJK 132301
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
301 PM AKDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.SHORT TERM...Satellite and radar imagery show a weak upper level
low moving over the far northern panhandle as of the time of
writing, with rain showers rotating around it and into the
northern half of the area. These showers will persist through
Wednesday, bringing continued chances of precipitation to the
northern panhandle and parts of the Gulf Coast, including Sitka.
Do not expect significant precip accumulations with these showers,
though some gusty winds with stronger showers are possible. Given
the cold air advection in the mid-levels wrapping in around the
southern flank of the system, a few thunderstorms can`t be ruled
out for the northern gulf or the NE Gulf Coast through the evening
hours on Tuesday.

By Wednesday night, precipitation chances will be diminishing as
the low departs and ridging rebuilds across the Gulf, with drier
weather expected for Thursday. Winds will for the most part stay
around 10 to 15 kt for most of the inner channels, barring areas
like Lynn Canal or some of the ocean entrances, where stronger
winds are possible at times. High temperatures will stay in the
60s on Wednesday, but warm through the remainder of the week.

.LONG TERM...Overall pattern of drying and warming weather to end
the work week remains on track in the long term forecast period.
For Friday, there is a decaying system set to pass into the
northern gulf moving east from Cook Inlet. However, there is
decent model uncertainty in regards to if this system will remain
organized enough to bring appreciable precipitation to the NE gulf
coast. This will largely depend on the strength of the ridge in
the gulf and upper level support. Overall though this would likely
still keep the inside waters predominantly dry, though residual
cloud cover can`t be ruled out. By Sunday, there is more model
agreement in an embedded short wave trough trying to bring some
light precipitation to the northern panhandle while the southern
panhandle looks to continue to remain dry until the start of next
week. With the ridge in place and diminishing cloud cover, daytime
highs are expected to gradually increase heading into the weekend
for most of the panhandle.

With the ridge in the central gulf strengthening, the gradient
over the SE gulf will increase and produce winds of around 25 kt
by Thursday night and continue through Friday. For the inside
waters, afternoon sea breezes under clearing skies are the primary
action. However, with the ridge building in and low pressure
passing through the Canadian interior, Taiya Inlet and up the
Klondike Highway will likely see winds of 25 kt with higher gusts
on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Weak low over the NE gulf continues to produce SCT SHRA
over the N panhandle. VFR conditions prevail across the region with
some MVFR CIGS in heavier precip over the N. Overnight expect some
clearing S of Frederick Sound to enhance the potential for fog
development overnight into Wed.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...BC

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