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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
676 FXAK67 PAJK 132301 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 301 PM AKDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .SHORT TERM...Satellite and radar imagery show a weak upper level low moving over the far northern panhandle as of the time of writing, with rain showers rotating around it and into the northern half of the area. These showers will persist through Wednesday, bringing continued chances of precipitation to the northern panhandle and parts of the Gulf Coast, including Sitka. Do not expect significant precip accumulations with these showers, though some gusty winds with stronger showers are possible. Given the cold air advection in the mid-levels wrapping in around the southern flank of the system, a few thunderstorms can`t be ruled out for the northern gulf or the NE Gulf Coast through the evening hours on Tuesday. By Wednesday night, precipitation chances will be diminishing as the low departs and ridging rebuilds across the Gulf, with drier weather expected for Thursday. Winds will for the most part stay around 10 to 15 kt for most of the inner channels, barring areas like Lynn Canal or some of the ocean entrances, where stronger winds are possible at times. High temperatures will stay in the 60s on Wednesday, but warm through the remainder of the week. .LONG TERM...Overall pattern of drying and warming weather to end the work week remains on track in the long term forecast period. For Friday, there is a decaying system set to pass into the northern gulf moving east from Cook Inlet. However, there is decent model uncertainty in regards to if this system will remain organized enough to bring appreciable precipitation to the NE gulf coast. This will largely depend on the strength of the ridge in the gulf and upper level support. Overall though this would likely still keep the inside waters predominantly dry, though residual cloud cover can`t be ruled out. By Sunday, there is more model agreement in an embedded short wave trough trying to bring some light precipitation to the northern panhandle while the southern panhandle looks to continue to remain dry until the start of next week. With the ridge in place and diminishing cloud cover, daytime highs are expected to gradually increase heading into the weekend for most of the panhandle. With the ridge in the central gulf strengthening, the gradient over the SE gulf will increase and produce winds of around 25 kt by Thursday night and continue through Friday. For the inside waters, afternoon sea breezes under clearing skies are the primary action. However, with the ridge building in and low pressure passing through the Canadian interior, Taiya Inlet and up the Klondike Highway will likely see winds of 25 kt with higher gusts on Friday. && .AVIATION...Weak low over the NE gulf continues to produce SCT SHRA over the N panhandle. VFR conditions prevail across the region with some MVFR CIGS in heavier precip over the N. Overnight expect some clearing S of Frederick Sound to enhance the potential for fog development overnight into Wed. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GFS LONG TERM....STJ AVIATION...BC Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau