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FXAK67 PAJK 141422
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
622 AM AKDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tonight/...As a weakening trough continues
to move away from the region to the northeast and a SFC ridge of
high pressure builds into the area from the Gulf, isolated showers
will depart the far northeastern Panhandle and breaks in the
clouds will become more common, today. The remainder of Southeast
Alaska will remain dry through the period.

As for winds, they will, for the most part, stay around 15 kt or
less for most of the Inner Channels as the pressure field orientation
will become more parallel to the north-south oriented Inner
Channels, and the gradient will also be progressively relaxing
through the period. The only potential exceptions will be areas
like northern Lynn Canal or near some of the ocean entrances,
where more enhanced winds are possible, at times, earlier on in
the timeframe.

High temperatures will remain between 60 and 70 degrees from
north to south, respectively, today.

.LONG TERM...Overall pattern of drying and warming weather to end
the work week remains on track in the long term forecast period.
For Friday, there is a decaying system set to pass into the
northern gulf moving east from Cook Inlet. However, there is
decent model uncertainty in regards to if this system will remain
organized enough to bring appreciable precipitation to the NE gulf
coast. This will largely depend on the strength of the ridge in
the gulf and upper level support. Overall though this would likely
still keep the inside waters predominantly dry, though residual
cloud cover can`t be ruled out. By Sunday, there is more model
agreement in an embedded short wave trough trying to bring some
light precipitation to the northern panhandle while the southern
panhandle looks to continue to remain dry until the start of next
week. With the ridge in place and diminishing cloud cover, daytime
highs are expected to gradually increase heading into the weekend
for most of the panhandle.

With the ridge in the central gulf strengthening, the gradient
over the SE gulf will increase and produce winds of around 25 kt
by Thursday night and continue through Friday. For the inside
waters, afternoon sea breezes under clearing skies are the primary
action. However, with the ridge building in and low pressure
passing through the Canadian interior, Taiya Inlet and up the
Klondike Highway will likely see winds of 25 kt with higher gusts
on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions for the panhandle during the day
time period with few clouds. Once again, sea breezes look to
invade during the latter half of the morning and through the
afternoon. As many around SE AK might expect, Skagway will be hit
hardest by the increase in southerly wind speed. One big question
mark in today`s forecast is the development of a marine layer off
shore. If it develops, expect widespread MVFR CIG conditions along
the coastline, but not extending far into the inner channels.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...NC

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