733
FXAK67 PAJK 151322
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
522 AM AKDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.SHORT TERM.../through Monday night/...Another rainy day is in
store for SE AK. The surface ridge has been sliding eastward as
the trough aloft and surface front approaches from the west. This
should push the plume of moisture eastward, giving rain to the
southern regions of the panhandle. Looking at early morning
satellite imagery, an area of rain is swinging towards Prince of
Wales Island. So instead of the heavy rain mainly being focused on
the northern half of the panhandle, moderate rain looks to be
more spread out around the area.

Overall, another 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain is expected through
tonight. That being said, the Icy Strait area, including Juneau
and Gustavus, could see near 1.5 to 2 inches of more rain through
tonight.

As the surface front moves inland today, marine winds will pick up
to around 15 to 20 knots for most inner channel winds. An exception
is the far southern inner channels, were winds will be closer to 25
knots. As the front clears through tonight, marine wind speeds will
decrease to around 10 knots by late tonight.


.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/...
After the previous heavy rain event for the start of the week SE AK
weather while active will not be as impactful. The 500 mb low over
the AK interior remains the driving force for this weeks rain fall.
through the week the center drops southward over the AK Gulf with
lobes extending and continuing to rotate around it. By the next
weekend models have some alignment on the 500 mb pattern, just not
where any of the features will actually be. Tuesday at the surface
ridging over the Eastern Gulf and an open wave trough over the NE
Gulf will keep onshore flow and showers over much of the region.
Tuesday into Wednesday a series of surface waves track up the lee
side of the ridge from the N Pacific bringing shots of increased
precip with highest amounts over the south. Late in the week
tracking the next low moving in. As of now the GFS/Canadian track
should follow the previous surface waves but having a more
solidified structure but the timing difference between these models
is almost 24 hours. Latest ECMWF doesn`t even show a closed low
moving in. GESF ensembles have a closed low but not a deep with low
probability of 6 hour precip exceeding 0.25 inches. ECMWF ensembles
are similar to operational, not much of a feature depicted.

&&

.AVIATION...

Full range of LIFR to VFR flight conditions across the panhandle
this morning, anticipating trend in flight conditions to continue
for the panhandle as a trough and associated showers continue to
push inland. For today, persistent showers and IFR to MVFR
conditions expected along gulf coastal TAF sites with CIGS AoB
3000ft and VSBYs dropping to 2-4 statue miles. For the rest of the
panhandle, anticipating showers with general MVFR to VFR flight
conditions with CIGS AoB 5000ft under BKN to OVC skies and VSBYs
3-6 statue miles. Strongest winds should remain confined to the
northern panhandle this afternoon, with sustained winds up to
10kts and isolated gusts up to 25kts through this afternoon. Best
chances for LLWS primarily along coastal TAF sites through 00z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday afternoon for
portions of the northern panhandle along the Icy Strait corridor
and northern inner channels, including Juneau. As of early Monday
morning, showers continue for the majority of the northern
panhandle with most places have recording between 2 and 6 inches
of rain across the panhandle. This rainfall, in combination with
elevated snow levels exacerbating snow melt, has resulted in
excess runoff leading to elevated rivers, creeks, and other low-
lying areas around the area. With that much rain, water levels
across rivers and streams continue to rise this morning within the
Mendenhall Valley, with the Jordan Creek and Auke Lake gages
reaching Flood stages around 5am AKDT. Further north within the
the Chilkat Basin, including Haines and Klukwan, this rain along
with increased snow and ice melt due to warm temperatures aloft
has risen the Chilkat River to Minor Flood stage this morning.
Rain is expected to gradually decrease in intensity over the
northern panhandle as we head through Monday as the atmospheric
river shifts farther south.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Watch through this evening for AKZ318>321-325.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-036-641-642-661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...NM
HYDROLOGY...NM

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