710
FXAK69 PAFG 161325
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
525 AM AKDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Cool and wet pattern will persist over the west coast
through Tuesday. A series of fronts will be the focus rain
showers for much of the west coast through Tuesday. Gusty south
winds slowly diminishing. Scattered to numerous showers and
aftn/evening isolated thunderstorms area possible over the
Interior Tue and Wednesday. High pressure will slowly dry things
out Thursday into Friday. Warmer temps expected over the Interior
this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
Upper level troughing is dominating the west coast with a 542 dam
low center near the Seward Penn. The low will begin to weaken as
it moves to the south on Tuesday. Weak southerly flow will
continue over the Interior through Tuesday. Weak troughing will
then persist over much of the area on Wednesday as the upper
low continues to sinks south and weaken. Another trough will push
across the north slope as well on Wednesday. High pressure starts
to build over the Bering on Thursday and across the Interior
on Friday.


Central and Eastern Interior...
Temps remain on the cool side with Scattered to numerous showers
and isolated thunderstorms over the Interior Tuesday into
Wednesday. The southern and E Interior could see heavy showers
develop on Wednesday as a shortwave rotates around an upper low to
the west. Upper 60s for highs over most of the Interior, except
low 70s over the Yukon Flats through Wednesday. The Interior could
get back into the 70s later in the week as high pressure builds
in from the west. Possible mid to upper 70s by the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Scattered to numerous rain showers will continue
over the western Interior through Wed morning. Between 0.25
and 0.50 inches of rain are expected for the Western Interior south
of Galena through Tuesday evening. On Wednesday, much of the west
coast and western interior should be clear with light rain showers
South of Galena near McGrath on Wednesday. Temperatures warm from the
50s into the mid/lower 60s through the week. Winds are light but increase
and shift southwest for the coast and Seward Penn Wednesday evening.
Slight chance for an isolated thunderstorms in the western
interior east of Galena on Tuesday and Wed.


North Slope and Brooks Range...
A frontal boundary will be the focus for rain showers from
Utqiagvik west. Rain showers will also persist in the Brooks
Range. Northwest ALaska will see additional 0.25 to 0.50 inches
through Tuesday morning. Highs in the upper 30s and low 40s with
the rain showers from Utqiagvik west, highs from Deadhorse east
could reach into the 50s Monday through Wed.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The Interior will see isolated to scattered showers and possibly
a thunderstorm through mid week. High temps for the Interior
slightly cooler than seasonal norms through mid week. Possible
warm up later in the week and into the weekend as the Interior
drys out and high pressure builds in from the west.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered rain showers and Isolated thunderstorms
increase in coverage Tuesday afternoon and evening. An upper level low to the
west will produce numerous rain showers for the Western Interior
Tue evening into Wedneday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will continue over the Interior on Wednesday. Numerous showers possible
over the southern Interior. West to southwest winds
increase to 10 to 15 mph over the northern Interior, especially over
summits on Wednesday and Thursday. Showers will diminish on Friday
as high pressure builds over the Interior from the west. Warmer temps
expected Friday and into the weekend.

West coast...Scattered to numerous rain showers will continue
over the western Interior through Wed morning. Between 0.25
and 0.50 inches of rain are expected for the Western Interior south
of Galena through Tuesday evening. On Wednesday, much of the west
coast and western interior should be clear with light rain showers
South of Galena near McGrath on Wednesday. Temperatures warm from the
50s into the mid/lower 60s through the week. Winds are light but increase
and shift southwest for the coast and Seward Penn Wednesday evening.
Slight chance for an isolated thunderstorms in the western
interior east of Galena on Tuesday and Wed.


.HYDROLOGY...
More rainfall is expected over the west coast through Tuesday.
The heaviest rain will fall south of Galena. While it is
significant rainfall, no significant issues are anticipated on
rivers.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-856.
&&

$$