378
FXAK69 PAFG 171257 CCA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
457 AM AKDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered to numerous showers expected
over the S Interior on Wednesday. Scattered showers and
Isolated thunderstorms also possible over the E Interior
Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure will slowly dry things out
Thursday into Friday. Warmer temps expected over the Interior this
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
Upper level low over the Western Interior is weakening  as it
moves to the south on Wednesday. Weak southerly flow will
continue over the Interior through Wednesday with weak shortwaves
rotating around the low and across the S and E Interior.
Weak troughing will then persist over much of the Interior
Wed night into Thursday as the upper low continues to sinks south
and weaken. A couple of troughs will will push across the north
slope as well on Wednesday and Friday. High pressure starts to
build over the Bering on Thursday and across the Interior on
Friday and into the weekend.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Temps remain on the cool side with Scattered to numerous showers
and isolated thunderstorms over the Interior on Wednesday. The
southern and E Interior could see heavy showers develop on
Wednesday as a shortwave rotates around an upper low that
is over the western Interior. Mid to Upper 60s for highs over
most of the Interior, except low 70s over the Yukon Flats through
Thursday. The Interior could get back into the 70s on Friday as
high pressure builds in from the west. Possible upper 70s to low
80s over the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...
As the upper level low over the western Interior weakens there
are still Scattered to numerous rain showers expected to continue
over the western Interior and the western Alaska Range through
Wed afternoon. Between 0.25 and 0.50 inches of rain are expected
for the Western Interior south of Galena through Wed evening.
Much of the west coast should start to clear out as ridging builds
over the Bering on Thursday. Temperatures warm from the 50s into
the mid/lower 60s on Thurday. Low 70s over the western Interior by
Friday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A frontal boundary will swing across the western north slope
on Wednesday bringing strong southwest winds near the Point Hope
area. Rain showers will accompany the front from Utqiagvik west
and over the western Brooks Range. A stronger front will ramp
up south-southwest winds around 25 to 40 mph over northwest
Alaska late Thursday afternoon into Friday.


Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Strong ridging expected to build over the middle part of the
state, with upper heights likely reaching values of 580 dam or
possibly higher, which would represent the highest values of the
summer. ECMWF ensemble probs of temps greater than 80 for the
Interior are likely Sunday and Monday and possibly Tue. Upper
80s for the Yukon Flats.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers and cooler temperatures continue
through Wednesday, before conditions begin to dry out and warm up on
Thursday. Isolated to widely scattered wet thunderstorms today over the
eastern Interior, then isolated wet thunderstorms tomorrow and again
Thursday. By Friday, any thunderstorm chances are relegated to the far
SE Interior near the AlCan. West to southwest winds increase to 10 to 15
mph over the northern Interior, especially over summits on Wednesday and
Thursday. Friday is the first day back to seasonal norms of the low 70s
over the Interior, with continued drying and warming all the way through
the weekend as a strong Interior ridge builds in. 80+ degree days
are possible for warmer spots of the Interior on Sunday and Monday.

West coast...Upper level low persists over the southern western
Interior bringing Scattered to numerous rain showers from
Galena to McGrath. Between 0.25 and 0.50 inches of rain are
expected for the Western Interior south of Galena through
Wednesday evening. Much of the west coast should start to
clear out as ridging builds over the Bering on Thursday.
Temperatures warm from the 50s into the mid/lower 60s on Thurday.
Low 70s over the western Interior by Friday.

.HYDROLOGY...
The Tanana river at Fairbanks is near Action stage but expected
to come down over next few days.

Heavy rains over the SW Interior toward the Delta are finally
wrapping up after tomorrow with an additional 0.25 to 0.5 inches
over the Yukon Valley to the Kuskokwim Valley. Smaller streams
will continue to see rises, but no significant issues are
anticipated.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-850-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$