368
FXAK69 PAFG 111251
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
451 AM AKDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An easterly wave is moving across the Interior this
morning bringing more wetting rains to the area. Rain showers
will shift to the north and west this afternoon and some clearing
expected over the Interior. Another front will push across the
west coast Thursday night into Saturday. Chinook winds will
develop in the Alaska Range Friday afternoon into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A 531 dam arctic low is dropping southward across the Bering Sea
on Thursday. Low center will be west of Saint Lawrence Island by
Thursday morning. An easterly wave undercutting the ridge could
bring back wetting rains over the Central Interior on Thursday.
Models are showing the upper low over the Bering to shift east
on FRiday and this will set up chinook flow over the Interior
Friday afternoon into Sunday.

Surface...A 997 mb low over Norton Sound on Thursday will wobble
around the Bering and weaken by Friday. A secondary low over the
Central Aleutians will move north and be near the Yukon Delta
coast by Friday aftn as a 994 mb low. Weak high pressure over the
Arctic through Friday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
An easterly wave is moving across the Interior this
morning bringing more wetting rains to the area. Rain showers
will shift to the north and west this afternoon and some clearing
expected over the Interior. Rainfall amounts around 0.25 to 0.50
inches through Thursday afternoon. High temps across the Interior
back into the 60s due to clouds and rain showers. Warming back up
in the low 70s by the weekend as chinook flow sets up over most
of the Interior. Winds will ramp up in the Alaska Range and near
Delta Junction Fri afternoon and continue into Saturday. Winds
could get close to wind advisory criteria, will continue to
monitor.

West Coast and Western Interior...
An easterly wave will move into the western Interior and produce
numerous showers as it moves northwest into Thursday evening.
Expect up to an additional 0.20 to .50 from Tanana and points
northwest to Ambler. An upper level low will dominate the west
coast through Saturday. Another piece of energy rotates around
the low and more rain showers will push across the Yukon Delta
Thursday night into Friday bringing more wetting rains to the
region. Rain will spread northward Fri night into Sunday as the
front pushes inland. Additional rainfall amounts around 0.50 to
1.25 inches of rain from the Seward Penn south. Highs only in the
50s near the coast and in the lower 60s inland. Western Interior
will be closer to 70 on Friday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Weak high pressure will dominate the north slope with patchy dense
fog and stratus. Rain showers will continue over the W Brooks
Range with around 0.50 inches of rainfall through Thursday. Temps
will warm up over the Brooks Range in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Highs in the 40s near the coast through Friday.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Upper level low will dominate the west coast through the weekend.
West coast will stay wet and cool. Chinook flow will develop over
the Interior Friday night into Saturday as the upper level low
shifts to the east. The Interior will be downsloped for the most
part but still areas could see isolated to scattered showers
through the weekend. This pattern will continue into Monday then
the models diverge on where the upper level low will end up but
shortwaves will likely rotate around the low from the Gulf of
ALaska and showers will persist over the western Interior early
next week.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wetting rains continue over the west coast through the
weekend. For the Interior, An easterly wave is moving across
the Interior this morning bringing more wetting rains to the
area. Rain showers will shift to the north and west this afternoon
and some clearing expected over the Interior. Rainfall amounts
around 0.25 to 0.50 inches through Thursday afternoon. Temps
warming in the low 70s Friday and Saturday. Chinook flow will
ramp up over the southern Interior will gusty winds developing in
the Alaska Range passes Friday into Saturday.

.HYDROLOGY...
More wetting rains over the southern west coast with 0.50 to 1.00
inches expected through Friday.

The Sag crested at Pump Station 3 at action stage yesterday, so
that water should be moving downstream the next day or so, but no
flooding is expected.

The Tanana River continues its summer rise as glacial melt and
wetting rains continue feeding it, with it remaining near action
stage at Fairbanks through Thursday.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
&&

$$

JK