086
FXAK69 PAFG 131219
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
419 AM AKDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Cool and wet pattern will persist over the west
coast through the weekend. A series of fronts will be the
focus rain showers for much of the west coast through Sunday.
Chinook winds will continue in the Alaska Range through Saturday
night. Gusty winds around 40 to 50 mph in the Alaska Range as
well as near Delta Junction will persist through early Sunday. A
chance of showers or an isolated thunderstorm is possible over the
Central Interior on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
Upper level troughing is dominating the west coast with a 531 dam
low center south of Nunivak Island. The low will push inland
today then remain quasi-stationary over the Yukon Delta area
through Sunday. Chinook flow continues over the Interior through
the weekend. This pattern is likely to persist into early next
week.

Surface...A 992 mb low will remain over St Lawrence Island Saturday morning
and then move South to be a 995 mb low 100 NM NE of St Matthew
Island Saturday afternoon. Another 993 mb low will develop over
the Yukon Delta coast as well as a 994 mb low over Kotzebue Sound
on Sunday. Weak high pressure over the Arctic through Sunday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Chinook flow continues over the Interior today. Upper 70s for the
Yukon Flats. Chinook winds will continue in the Alaska Range
through Saturday night. Gusty winds around 40 to 50 mph in the
Alaska Range as well as near Delta Junction will persist through
early Sunday. Wind advisories are in effect for Eastern Alaska
Range North of Trims Camp. Slightly cooler on Sunday with more
cloud cover and scattered rain showers over the Central Interior
and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. The northern Interior will
see numerous rain showers on Sunday. A chance of showers will
perist over the Interior early next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
An upper level low will dominate the west coast through the
weekend. Scattered to numerous showers will persist over
the west coast today. Another piece of energy rotates around the
low and more rain showers will push across the Yukon Delta
bringing more wetting rains to the region on Sunday. Additional
rainfall amounts around 0.50 to 1.25 inches of rain from the
Seward Penn south. Highs only in the 50s near the coast and in the
lower 60s inland.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
An upper level low in the Bering will push another front across
northwest ALaska, bringing more rain to Northwest Alaska on
Saturday and continue into Sunday. Northwest ALaska will see
additional 0.25 to .50 inches of rain today and again on Sunday. A
Weak high pressure over the north slope with areas of stratus and
fog.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Upper level low will dominate the west coast through the weekend.
Southerly flow over the Interior. This pattern will continue into
early next week with shortwaves rotating around the low from the
Gulf of ALaska and showers will persist over the western Interior
early next week. The Interior will see isolated to scattered
showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High temps for the Interior
around seasonal norms.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temps warming in the low to mid 70s on Saturday. Upper 70s over
the Yukon Flats. Chinook flow will continue over the Interior
with gusty winds in the Alaska Range passes and near Delta
Junction through early Sun morning. South winds around 40 to 50
mph are possible near Isabel Pass and Antler Creek areas Friday
afternoon through Saturday. A wind advisory is in effect for the
Eastern Alaska range and Delta Junction south. RH values around
30 to 40 percent across the Interior on Sat. Slightly cooler on
Sunday with more cloud cover and scattered rain showers over the
Central Interior. The northern Interior will see numerous rain
showers on Sunday.

For the west coast...An upper level low will dominate the west
coast through the weekend and early next week. Another piece of
energy rotates around the low and more rain showers will push
across the Yukon Delta on Sunday. Additional rainfall amounts
around 0.50 to 1.25 inches of rain from the Seward Peninsula
south. Northwest ALaska will see additional 0.25 to .50 inches of
rain. Highs only in the 50s near the coast and in the lower 60s
inland.

.HYDROLOGY...
More wetting rains over the southern west coast with 0.50 to 1.25
inches expected through Sunday.

&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ855-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$