650
FXAK69 PAFG 072153
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
153 PM AKDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The cool and wet pattern continues this week as upper level
troughing remains the dominant feature and also a parade of upper
level lows and troughs pass through the area. The West Coast and
Western Interior get a brief reprieve in rainfall this afternoon
and tonight, but rain returns on Monday. Across the Central and
Eastern Interior, rainfall remains likely southeast of a line from
Arctic Valley to Tanana to McGrath with another quarter of an
inch to half an inch of rain expected. Further north, in the
Brooks Range to the Arctic Coast, a rain/snow mix is possible
into Monday.

.DISCUSSION...
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...
Aloft, at 500 mb, broad upper level troughing encompasses much of
mainland Alaska, with a 533 dam (decameter) low centered over the
coastal waters north of Nuiqsut. The low center will track
southeastward through Monday. A 533 dam low near the north pole
will drop south to be between Wrangel Island Point Lay by Tuesday
morning while strengthening to 526 dam. Meanwhile, shortwave
energy will push across the Chukotsk Peninsula and the Bering
Strait Monday evening and to the West Coast by Tuesday morning,
continuing east across the Western Interior through Tuesday night.

At the surface, a 993 mb low is 150 NM southwest of Banks Island
with a front extending southwest to Arctic Village to Galena. The
low lifts northeast to be 50 NM southwest of Banks Island this
afternoon and over Banks Island Monday morning at 998 mb,
dragging the front east northeast. Meanwhile, a 1008 mb low
develops near Arctic Village this afternoon, sliding south to be
centered near Venetie by Monday morning and then weakening through
Tuesday morning. A 1000 mb low in the high Arctic north of
Wrangel Island Monday morning drops south and deepens to 997 mb
to be 350 NM northwest of Point Lay Monday afternoon, continuing
south to be 150 NM northwest of Point Lay by Tuesday morning, and
50 NM west of Point Hope by Wednesday morning. A 1007 mb low
moves into the Gulf of Anadyr Monday morning continuing southeast
to be near St Lawrence Island Monday afternoon and then to near
Norton Sound Tuesday morning while deepening to 1001 mb.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Cooler temperatures expected this afternoon with highs largely in
the 30s to near 40. Precip continues, with the best chances
across the central and eastern Brooks Range. Given colder
temperatures and lower snow levels, a mix of rain and snow is
possible into Monday. Accumulating snow is not expected along the
coast or in the Arctic Plain, but locations above 3000 feet in
the Brooks Range may see a slushy coating of snow. It will be
difficult to accumulate anything given the previous warm
temperatures but highest elevations near Atigun Pass could see an
inch of two of accumulation along the Highway into this evening.
Temperatures begin to moderate Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A brief reprieve in rain expected through tonight, before the
next round moves in Monday morning, primarily to St Lawrence
Island and areas south of the Seward Peninsula, pushing eastward
into the southern western Interior Monday night and Tuesday. A
quarter of an inch of rain expected from St Lawrence Island to
Nome to McGrath, with half an inch expected over the Y-K Delta. A
front dropping out of the Arctic Monday night into Tuesday will
bring more rain. Another quarter of an inch to three quarters of
an inch expected Tuesday into Tuesday night across the Western
Interior, with the highest amounts falling in the Upper Kuskokwim
Valley. Temperatures remain cool.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Rain persists into tonight, primarily southeast of a line from
Arctic Village to Tanana to McGrath with another quarter of an
inch to half an inch possible, with locally higher amounts in the
Alaska Range. Rain chances continue Monday with the best chances
from Eagle southwest to the Alaska Range, where another tenth of
an inch to a quarter of an inch of rain is possible. A front
pushing across the Western Interior Tuesday will approach the
Central Interior increasing rain chances late Tuesday.
Temperatures slowly warm Monday and Tuesday into the upper 50s in
the northwest and in the 60s southeast. Southerly gap flow
develops in the Alaska Range passes Monday night into Tuesday.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...The rainy and cooler pattern will
continue this week as upper level troughing remains the dominant
feature. By the end of next week temperatures moderate, especially
over the eastern half of the state as an upper level low in the
Gulf brings southerly flow aloft.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Unseasonably cool and generally wet conditions persist across
northern Alaska. Another quarter to half an inch of rain expected
along and southeast of a line from Arctic Village to McGrath.
Quieter and drier conditions along the West Coast and Western
Interior into tonight will give way to more rain Monday with
another quarter of an inch to half an inch of rain expected from
the southern Seward Peninsula south to the Yukon Delta. On
Tuesday, with the approach and passage of yet another front,
another quarter of an inch to three quarters of an inch expected
Tuesday into Tuesday night across the Western Interior, with the
highest amounts falling in the Upper Kuskokwim Valley. Breezy west
to southwest winds across the Interior summits with lighter winds
Monday and Tuesday for most locations. Weak southerly gap flow
develops in the Alaska Range passes Tuesday.

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect continued rises on rivers draining the Brooks Range from
recent heavy rain, including, but not limited to, the Sag, Wulik,
Kobuk, Noatak, and Koyukuk Rivers and smaller creeks and streams.

In the Interior, rain continues with an additional quarter to
half an inch possible through tonight. This may also lead to
rises in some rivers and streams.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

gjm