828
FZAK80 PAFC 172152
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
152 PM AKDT Wednesday 17 July 2024

FORECAST VALID...Monday 22 July 2024

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High.

SYNOPSIS...A series of lows will move from Siberia into the High
Arctic, through the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. Predominant westerly
and southerly flow will persist through Monday.

The main ice edge extends from near Utqiagvik to 70 49N 160 12W to
70 55N 167 29W to 69 33N 169 14W to 69 31N 174 29W to 65 55N
168 41W and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open
water.

From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from
near Utqiagvik to 10 nm northwest of Wainwright to 140 nm west of
Wainwright to 80 nm northwest of Cape Lisburne to 175 nm west of
Cape Lisburne to 10 nm north of Diomede and continues in Russian
waters. The ice edge is open water.

-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-
PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-

Ice covered.

FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Southerly winds will become westerly on
Saturday, followed by another period of westerlies and southerlies
through Monday. Expect ice melt to accelerate under a warmer air
mass. The pack ice edge will retreat to the north 30 to 40 nm
through the period while the marginal ice zone near the coast
continues to grow. It is possible that a small corridor of ice free
conditions shows up near the coast, but is low confidence at this
point as there still is grounded ice near Point Barrow.

-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-
PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-
PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-
PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-
PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-
PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-
PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-
PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-

Ice covered.

FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Generally southwest winds will persist through
the period. Expect the ice edge to melt/retreat 30 to 50 nm to the
north through the period. Expect pack ice melt to continue to
accelerate through the period.


&&
Lawson