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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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437 FXUS63 KABR 160541 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1241 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and weak thunderstorms will wrap back into northeast South Dakota and western Minnesota this afternoon and overnight (30 to 50 percent chance). - 10 to 25 percent chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Timing and location are uncertain at this time. - Seasonal temperatures through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 The aviation discussion has been updated below for the 06Z TAFS. UPDATE Issued at 855 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The last of this afternoon and evening`s widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is now exiting the CWA across Hamlin county. Focus now shifts to the stratiform rain moving southward across eastern ND associated with the main low center. Still expect this rain to move south and overspread the eastern CWA through the nighttime hours, but perhaps dissipating in areal coverage a bit. Just minor adjustments to PoPs to account for latest trends. Otherwise, no major changes anticipated to the forecast for the overnight hours. && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The upper low that brought all the rain to the area yesterday is sitting in NW MN spinning substantial moisture around on the backside across a good portion of eastern ND. The airmass is becoming conditional unstable, but ample clouds have slow down the potential heating. With that being said, we still expect some showers to develop, mainly across NE SD and Western Central MN. A few lightning strikes are possible as well. This shower activity will continue overnight in a few locations as the low finally moves to the southeast into Wisconsin. After this low moves out the ridge will begin to rebound with the axis starting to set up across eastern MT. A few instability showers may be possible Friday afternoon but chances are looking low. Temps will be near seasonal most locations, but a bit cooler in NE SD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Upper level ridging builds in this weekend through early next week. The ridge will push temps into the 80s across the region by Sunday with areas west river perhaps topping out in the 90s. Generally, mostly dry conditions are expected Saturday through Monday. On Tuesday, the ridge flattens a bit and shortwave energy becomes more ample. Coupled with increasing CAPE on moist southerly flow ahead of a weak fropa, thunderstorms look to move back in with the Tuesday front. There`s some model disagreement toward the end of the period for the latter half of next week regarding how strongly the upper ridge builds back in behind the sfc front on Wednesday and Thursday. There`s also disagreement on placement of another potential fropa late Wednesday and a shortwave trough. All to say that precip and thunderstorms can`t be ruled out Wednesday night through Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG MVFR CIGs look to make a return to KABR/KATY by daybreak, with some potential for IFR CIGs in KATY. Pockets of -RA/-SHRA are also expected across northeast SD associated with an area of low pressure. Better chances for this at KATY, but also possible at KABR. Further west across KPIR/KMBG, VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TMT SHORT TERM...Scarlett LONG TERM...Wise AVIATION...TMT/Vipond