437
FXUS63 KABR 160541 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1241 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and weak thunderstorms will wrap back into northeast
  South Dakota and western Minnesota this afternoon and overnight
  (30 to 50 percent chance).

- 10 to 25 percent chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms
  this weekend into next week. Timing and location are uncertain
  at this time.

- Seasonal temperatures through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

The aviation discussion has been updated below for the 06Z TAFS.

UPDATE Issued at 855 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

The last of this afternoon and evening`s widely scattered shower
and thunderstorm activity is now exiting the CWA across Hamlin
county. Focus now shifts to the stratiform rain moving southward
across eastern ND associated with the main low center. Still
expect this rain to move south and overspread the eastern CWA
through the nighttime hours, but perhaps dissipating in areal
coverage a bit. Just minor adjustments to PoPs to account for
latest trends. Otherwise, no major changes anticipated to the
forecast for the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

The upper low that brought all the rain to the area yesterday is
sitting in NW MN spinning substantial moisture around on the
backside across a good portion of eastern ND. The airmass is
becoming conditional unstable, but ample clouds have slow down the
potential heating. With that being said, we still expect some
showers to develop, mainly across NE SD and Western Central MN. A
few lightning strikes are possible as well. This shower activity
will continue overnight in a few locations as the low finally moves
to the southeast into Wisconsin.

After this low moves out the ridge will begin to rebound with the
axis starting to set up across eastern MT. A few instability showers
may be possible Friday afternoon but chances are looking low. Temps
will be near seasonal most locations, but a bit cooler in NE SD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Upper level ridging builds in this weekend through early next week.
The ridge will push temps into the 80s across the region by Sunday
with areas west river perhaps topping out in the 90s. Generally,
mostly dry conditions are expected Saturday through Monday. On
Tuesday, the ridge flattens a bit and shortwave energy becomes more
ample. Coupled with increasing CAPE on moist southerly flow ahead of
a weak fropa, thunderstorms look to move back in with the Tuesday
front.

There`s some model disagreement toward the end of the period for the
latter half of next week regarding how strongly the upper ridge
builds back in behind the sfc front on Wednesday and Thursday.
There`s also disagreement on placement of another potential fropa
late Wednesday and a shortwave trough. All to say that precip and
thunderstorms can`t be ruled out Wednesday night through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR CIGs look to make a return to KABR/KATY by daybreak, with
some potential for IFR CIGs in KATY. Pockets of -RA/-SHRA are also
expected across northeast SD associated with an area of low
pressure. Better chances for this at KATY, but also possible at
KABR. Further west across KPIR/KMBG, VFR conditions are forecast
through the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...Scarlett
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...TMT/Vipond