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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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195 FXUS63 KABR 110452 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1152 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will continue from 5 to 15 degrees below average through the weekend. - There is a 30-80% chance of showers and thunderstorms from early Sunday through early Monday, with the highest chances of precipitation over central South Dakota Sunday afternoon. - A general warming trend is expected with seasonal/near average temperatures for the later half of next week. Weak systems next week will provide for off and on chances for moisture. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Updated for the 06Z Aviation discussion below. UPDATE Issued at 608 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Updated for 00Z Aviation discussion below. The going forecast looks to be in good shape, as high pressure continues to influence the weather over much of the area. Expect the diurnal cu to continue to diminish over the next hour or two, but high clouds will spread from west to east over much of the CWA from convection in MT/WY that is moving east. && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 At 1 PM CDT, skies are mostly sunny and temperatures are warming through the 70s. Winds are light and variable with the axis of surface high pressure fixed over the CWA. There is low pressure organizing out over the Pacific Northwest, which will push across the northern plains tomorrow. Initially, PoPs show up across all of the west-river zones late tonight through Sunday morning where all the forcing/lift will line up with a lee- side/inverted surface trof over the western Dakotas. Heading into Sunday night, the best forcing/lift begins shifting down across the southern half of South Dakota, and the PoPs appear to be trending a bit in that direction as well. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms down across Stanley/Jones/Lyman counties Sunday afternoon/evening closer to a surface low reflection where the best available instability (~500-750J/kg) and deep layer shear (30-40 knots) over this CWA will reside. Minimal low level thermal advection occurring over this CWA in the short term period. But, low level moisture advection is progged across the western forecast zones, in particular, by late tonight through the day on Sunday. Worth a mention, since there is already quite a bit of stratus covering a lot of Kansas and Nebraska where the higher amounts of low level moisture are analyzed. Expecting an increase in low/mid cloudiness heading into Sunday across the Missouri River valley (the western) portion of the CWA, which should hold temperatures down a bit across that area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 At the start of the period, shortwave energy will be departing to the east on Monday, while high pressure at the surface moves over the region. Ensemble output still hinting at some precip potential during the morning hours on Monday as the mid-level disturbance is departing. GEFS/ENS/GEPS probs for at least .01 QPF (6-hourly) show about 30-50% across the eastern CWA during the day Monday. Inherited NBM PoPs do show slight chances (20%) in the far southeast corner of the CWA, and see no reason to change this for the time being. Upper pattern then takes on more of a ridging look across the central/northern plains area into Wednesday, before shortwave energy crosses the region potentially mid-week. Cluster analysis shows there is some subtle differences in just how much this shortwave will flatten the ridge across the Northern Plains, which in turn is telling to the overall strength of the shortwave as well. That said, this looks to be the first good chance (30-60%) for rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday. Taking a glance at CSU-ML for Day 5, and it does highlight a 5-15% potential for severe storms over central/western SD. As for temperatures, with the broad upper ridging trying to build into the plains states, temperatures will be a bit warmer than what we`ve been experiencing lately. Highs should rebound back into the upper 70s and 80s by mid-week and beyond. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will prevail for much of the TAF period, as dry low level air from the slowly departing high continues to remain over the area. Over central SD, a low pressure trough will move into the area on Sunday morning and be the focus for some shower and potential thunderstorms from late morning through early evening. The best chance for showers is at KPIR, so they continue to show the showers in the TAF. Will need to watch that area for stronger storms and potential addition of thunder to the TAF. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...SRF SHORT TERM...Dorn LONG TERM...TMT AVIATION...SRF