Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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547 FXUS63 KABR 162015 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 315 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few thunderstorms are possible along and south of Interstate 90 late this afternoon/early this evening. This area is in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. The main threat will be 60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. - Dry and mild conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday. - 20 to 40% chance of precipitation Thursday night and Friday, with the highest chances across central South Dakota. && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 An upper level trough will swing across the eastern part of the CWA tonight, with the region then remaining situated between the trough to the east and ridging over the western half of the country Wednesday and Wednesday night. At the surface, a boundary currently over the southern part of South Dakota looks to become the focus for thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening, and a few of those storms could start off around the Jones/Lyman county area. However, the chances are higher that the storms will be south of there. High pressure will drop in from the north later tonight, then will settle over the CWA Wednesday and Wednesday night. Conditions are expected to be dry through this time, with winds generally around 10 mph or less. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 50s. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the lower 70s across west central Minnesota and far northeastern South Dakota, to the lower 80s along and west of the Missouri River. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 We start the long term Thursday morning on the downwind side of an upper level ridge. Friday, a shortwave/low slides down and pushes the ridge back to the west. Some models are showing this shortwave strengthening into a weaker low pressure system centered over the SD/NE/IA border on Saturday. It continues to move south through the rest of the weekend. Then, for the rest of the term, we are in northerly flow aloft. Friday afternoon and evening will have a chance for some precipitation (30 to 50%, mainly across central SD) as the shortwave/low comes across. Severe storms do not look likely at the moment as instability, shear, and lapse rate values are below favorable thresholds. Some models show rain chances continuing into Saturday morning. Slight chances (less than 25%) continue through the end of the period. Accumulations are expected to be less than a quarter of an inch from each rainfall. Temperatures through the period will be around average for the most part, but could dip slightly below average in central SD. Highs are expected to be in the 80s. We are not looking at any exceptionally humid days, nor are there any particularly windy days in the forecast as this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Will see scattered showers continue across mainly the southwestern part of the area through the afternoon hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Parkin LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...Parkin