![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
171 FXUS65 KABQ 161120 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 520 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 106 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Hot and mainly dry weather will be the rule most areas today. Isolated and relatively weak showers and thunderstorms will be most prevalent from the southwest and south central mountains east out over the plains. The heat continues through the weekend with only isolated, weak showers and a few thunderstorms expected during the afternoons and evenings mainly for western and northern NM. This same pattern continues into early next week as the monsoon high remains overhead. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 106 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Boundary collisions have tapped into some modest instability in central NM this morning in the wake of a weak backdoor cold front. A few lightning strikes have been observed, but intensity is trending down and additional storm development tonight appears unlikely. Water vapor imagery shows an elongated ridge across the desert southwest and models suggest that a centroid will develop directly over central NM this afternoon. This will help temperatures climb a few degrees from yesterday`s already hot temps. Highs will generally be around 10 degrees above average, creating heat risk concerns areawide, but particularly in the middle Rio Grande Valley and southeast plains where a Heat Advisory is in effect. Record highs will be threatened in these locations and several others in eastern NM as well. PWATs will generally be only around 75% of normal, but several CAMs show storms developing over the high terrain early this afternoon. Mid-level dry air will be difficult to overcome, but slightly higher 500-700mb humidity across the southern portion of the forecast area makes this the favored area for convective development. Confidence in storms is even lower over the Sangre de Cristo mountains and eastern plains, but they do initiate on several hi-res models. Unorganized storms could produce gusty outflow winds and wetting footprints will generally be small. Most showers should wind down after sunset, but boundary collisions could help keep a storm or two around through the late evening. The centroid of the ridge will nudge northward and intensify a dam or two, making Saturday another hot and mostly dry day for the CWA. Highs will be very be close to today`s, although maybe a degree or two hotter across the northern half of the state. Low-level southwesterly flow will help to draw deeper moisture into western NM where isolated to widely scattered coverage of storms is expected. A few updrafts will try to develop over the peaks along the central NM chain, but a relatively strong mid-level subsidence inversion should prevent storms from moving down into the lower elevations. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 106 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Monsoon high (a.k.a. "heat dome" and "death ridge" or whatever other embellished name it`s been called of late), is forecast to remain centered over eastern NM Saturday night into early next week. This same doldrum high, albeit stronger than average for mid to late August, which forms over the Southwest U.S. every summer, and is responsible for NM`s rainy season, is forecast to meander over the state during the next week. The monsoon high`s strength is tied to all of the convection over Mexico and the tropical EPAC. The monsoon high center remains too far west over NM for good moisture advection with most moisture sliding up from the south into AZ. A few weak backdoor boundaries next week result in slight upticks in afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms, but overall, thunderstorm activity is forecast to remain below average for mid to late August during the next week. Heat is forecast to be the main weather concern. Why? A couple of factors. The associated subsidence inversion (rising air associated with the tropical thunderstorms to the south hits the top of the lower atmosphere and has to come down in the form of sinking air over NM/AZ). This sinking results in a type of mid level capping (subsidence) inversion that surface heating or outflow boundaries have to break in order for storms to form. Elevated heat sources in the form of dark green mountain slopes get the party started in the form of building thermals from mid to late morning. When mid level moisture is lacking and there is a strong subsidence inversion(s) in place around 18K ft MSL, it becomes very difficult for rising thermals to "make it" if you will to a point in the convective process that is self sustaining. ECMWF ENS model indicates that a slight jog of the monsoon high toward the eastern Great Basin could be in the cards a week out, allowing low level moisture to move in from the east. Asian- Pacific jet strength over central Canada looks like it could be strong enough to force the monsoon high west over eastern UT and western CO next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 513 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Isolated storms will develop over the high terrain between 18Z and 20Z this afternoon. Storms will struggle to maintain their strength as they move down in elevation mid to late afternoon. Gusty outflow winds to 40KT will be the main concern with showers and storms that develop. Given the isolated coverage, confidence in impacts at TAF sites was not high enough to include more than a mention of vicinity showers at KLVS and KTCC. Very hot temperatures around 10 degrees above average will create density altitude concerns this afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 106 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the end of next week. Ridging shifts overhead today and remains parked over New Mexico through at least the middle of next week. This will result in hot temperatures and isolated storms over the high terrain each afternoon. Temperatures will hold steady at near record levels today through the end of the week. Storm chances will gradually trend higher this weekend into early next week, with wetting rainfall will generally favoring western NM and the highest peaks of central and northern NM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 94 62 96 65 / 0 0 0 20 Dulce........................... 89 53 91 52 / 0 0 10 10 Cuba............................ 90 61 91 60 / 0 0 10 20 Gallup.......................... 92 60 93 57 / 0 5 20 30 El Morro........................ 88 60 89 59 / 5 10 30 40 Grants.......................... 92 61 92 60 / 10 10 20 30 Quemado......................... 90 61 89 58 / 20 20 40 40 Magdalena....................... 91 66 91 64 / 20 30 20 10 Datil........................... 88 61 88 59 / 30 30 30 20 Reserve......................... 94 62 93 57 / 20 20 40 30 Glenwood........................ 99 70 98 65 / 30 20 30 30 Chama........................... 83 53 85 53 / 0 0 10 10 Los Alamos...................... 88 66 90 65 / 20 5 20 10 Pecos........................... 89 63 90 62 / 10 5 20 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 86 56 87 56 / 5 0 10 5 Red River....................... 76 51 78 49 / 5 0 10 5 Angel Fire...................... 80 47 82 40 / 10 0 10 5 Taos............................ 89 54 91 51 / 5 0 5 5 Mora............................ 86 58 87 55 / 20 5 10 5 Espanola........................ 95 63 96 64 / 5 0 5 10 Santa Fe........................ 90 65 91 65 / 5 0 10 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 94 64 94 65 / 5 0 5 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 96 72 96 70 / 0 5 10 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 98 70 98 70 / 0 5 5 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 100 70 100 65 / 0 5 0 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 98 71 99 67 / 0 5 0 20 Belen........................... 100 68 100 62 / 0 5 0 10 Bernalillo...................... 100 69 100 67 / 0 5 0 10 Bosque Farms.................... 99 68 99 62 / 0 5 0 10 Corrales........................ 100 70 99 67 / 0 5 0 10 Los Lunas....................... 100 69 100 63 / 0 5 0 10 Placitas........................ 96 69 96 67 / 0 5 5 10 Rio Rancho...................... 99 70 99 67 / 0 5 0 10 Socorro......................... 101 70 101 68 / 10 10 5 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 90 65 90 62 / 0 10 10 10 Tijeras......................... 93 66 93 59 / 0 10 10 10 Edgewood........................ 93 62 93 56 / 5 5 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 94 60 95 54 / 10 5 5 10 Clines Corners.................. 89 61 90 59 / 20 5 10 10 Mountainair..................... 92 63 92 59 / 5 10 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 92 63 92 60 / 10 10 20 10 Carrizozo....................... 95 68 94 65 / 10 20 20 5 Ruidoso......................... 86 62 86 59 / 30 20 30 5 Capulin......................... 89 58 91 61 / 20 20 5 0 Raton........................... 93 57 95 58 / 20 5 5 0 Springer........................ 95 56 96 60 / 20 5 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 90 58 91 58 / 20 10 10 5 Clayton......................... 96 66 97 69 / 20 20 0 5 Roy............................. 93 62 94 64 / 20 20 0 5 Conchas......................... 101 66 102 68 / 20 10 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 96 65 99 65 / 20 20 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 100 70 102 68 / 20 20 0 5 Clovis.......................... 101 70 101 70 / 20 20 5 0 Portales........................ 101 70 102 70 / 20 20 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 100 69 101 68 / 20 20 0 0 Roswell......................... 105 73 104 72 / 5 10 0 0 Picacho......................... 97 67 97 65 / 10 10 10 0 Elk............................. 95 64 93 60 / 10 5 20 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ219-238. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...16