203
FXUS65 KABQ 091752 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1152 AM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 155 AM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024

Another active day with numerous showers and thunderstorms is
expected across northern New Mexico with more sparse storms
forecast south of Interstate 40. Temperatures will still be quite
hot in the lower Pecos valley near Roswell, but otherwise many
locations will undergo a couple to several degrees of cooling,
especially in then northeastern plains of New Mexico where more
cloudy and moist conditions will be found. Among the numerous
showers and thunderstorms in northeastern New Mexico, heavy rain
and flash flooding will be possible, so a Flood Watch is in effect
through this evening. Less storms are forecast this weekend, but
still scattered storms are expected, mainly over northern areas
on Saturday, shifting into more western areas on Sunday. Storms
will stay active over mostly western and northern New Mexico into
the first half of next week while temperatures climb above normal
in the eastern plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 155 AM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024

Showers and storms have persisted well into the night across
northern and western NM. The heaviest rainfall is exiting Quay
County at 2am with estimates between 1 and 3" since midnight.
Low stratus has developed in the wake of this precip with IFR cigs
reported at Clayton and Tucumcari. Clouds will continue to spread
westward toward the Sangre de Cristo Mts thru sunrise. Any showers
across the rest of northern and western NM will dissipate with
gradual clearing through the morning.

Today will be similar to yesterday but with an increased risk for
strong to severe storms over northeast NM. The airmass initially
will be more stable with widespread clouds, lingering showers, and
much cooler temps over northeast NM. However, a shortwave exiting
the Front Range will place the right entrance region of a 50-60 kt
speed max over southeast CO while very moist and unstable low level
southeasterly flow continues over northeast NM. Showers and storms
with locally heavy rainfall will initiate over most high terrain by
2pm then move north and east into nearby highlands and valleys thru
the afternoon. The 00Z HREF max 3-hr QPF values average 1-3" over
Colfax and Union counties late this afternoon which signals the
potential for the type of rainfall the stronger storms may produce.
Training cells will also be possible given the west to east storm
motion in that part of the forecast area. The latest 06Z NAM shows
an organized cluster of rain and storms taking several hours to
progress across northeast NM tonight. The area around Quay and
Torrance counties was also included in the watch given the heavy
rainfall that fell Thursday and Thursday night. The HPCC burn scar
was included as well however confidence was not high enough for the
Ruidoso area.

Models are still in good agreement on a decrease in storm coverage
Saturday as a well-defined dry intrusion moves northwest from the
Permian Basin. The focus for storms with heavy rainfall will be
mainly far northern NM and the western high terrain. Max temps will
rebound back into the mid to upper 90s from the ABQ metro south and
east across eastern NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 155 AM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024

Storms will fizzle over northern NM Saturday evening, and into
Sunday the upper high will not undergo much change, still being
primarily situated over NM and TX. PWATs would generally remain
near to above average over the northern half of the CWA while
southern areas would be running slightly below, but deeper
moisture would be just across the NM-AZ border and could seep some
storm outflows and new storms into western zones. Otherwise, the
climatologically favored northern and western peaks would initiate
diurnal storms with slow movements (generally eastbound in
northern zones, northbound in western zones, and erratic motions
elsewhere). Localized flooding would be most likely in the
northern zones. With less cloud cover, especially in eastern
zones, temperatures should escalate back into the 90`s to low
100`s Sunday afternoon.

An eastward shift of the upper high is still anticipated into
Monday and Tuesday, drawing a more traditional subtropical tap of
monsoon moisture up from the Sierra Madre Occidental. This will
benefit AZ the most with very high PWATs and increasing storms,
but western and portions of northern NM should see some of this
higher moisture also seeping in, so highest POPs are focused over
the western and northern ranges of our CWA. Fewer storms and less
clouds will keep hot temperatures going over the eastern plains
through mid week.

There were some signs of an intermountain-west trough moving in by
Wednesday (mainly per last few days` runs of the GFS) which would
have introduced some west/southwest flow aloft into NM, however
newest runs have backed off on this. Now the upper high seems to
be building a westward extension back into NM, possibly disrupting
the incoming plume of monsoon moisture. There will still be
storms Wednesday into Thursday, but PWATs would be subdued back
closer to more normal, homogeneous values across our CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024

MVFR to IFR cigs are currently in place east of the central
mountain chain and satellite trends suggest they will continue for
at least 1-3 more hours before eventually breaking up mid-
afternoon. As a result, convective initiation will be delayed
this afternoon for areas along and east of the central mountain
chain. Early afternoon storms will develop over mountain peaks and
generally move northeastward at 10-20 mph today. Storm chances
are greatest near the CO border thanks to anomalously high
moisture content. Storm chances will increase as one moves north
along the Rio Grande Valley, but isolated storms and associated
gusty winds could impact sites as far south as KONM.

Breezy east winds are still in place this morning at many
terminals, but winds will begin to weaken as the pressure gradient
associated with the backdoor cold front that went through last
night gets washed out. Gusty east winds over 35KT at KABQ cannot
be ruled out this evening, but is much less likely than yesterday
considering convection is not expected to be as vigorous over the
east slopes of the Sandia/Manzano mountains.

MVFR to IFR cigs are possible again tonight and tomorrow morning
in eastern NM, but should be shorter lived since breezy southerly
winds in the morning should help to scour out low-level moisture.
Furthermore, MVFR conditions along with very strong winds and
hail may accompany stronger storms this evening in eastern NM at
sites such as KRTN, KCAO, and KTCC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 AM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024

There are no critical fire weather conditions for the next 7 days.
Another active day is in store today with numerous storms producing
locally heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding, especially in
the Sangre de Cristo Mts and northeast NM. Storm motion will be
north and eastward. A decrease in coverage is expected this weekend
with smaller footprints of heavy rainfall and warmer temps. Another
active period may begin as early as Monday and continue all of next
week with a more traditional monsoon pattern.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  87  64  88  65 /  60  60  40  40
Dulce...........................  81  51  83  53 /  60  70  60  40
Cuba............................  84  57  84  58 /  70  70  40  30
Gallup..........................  86  56  88  57 /  60  50  20  30
El Morro........................  82  57  83  56 /  60  50  20  30
Grants..........................  86  60  88  61 /  60  50  20  30
Quemado.........................  85  57  86  57 /  60  30   5  30
Magdalena.......................  87  64  88  63 /  20  20   5  10
Datil...........................  83  56  85  55 /  40  20   5  20
Reserve.........................  87  56  91  56 /  60  30   0  20
Glenwood........................  94  67  96  65 /  40  20   0  20
Chama...........................  74  50  75  51 /  60  80  80  40
Los Alamos......................  80  58  83  64 /  80  70  40  30
Pecos...........................  78  57  83  56 /  80  60  30  30
Cerro/Questa....................  75  50  76  54 /  90  80  60  40
Red River.......................  65  47  67  47 /  90  80  60  40
Angel Fire......................  71  43  72  46 /  80  70  50  30
Taos............................  80  53  81  54 /  70  60  50  30
Mora............................  75  51  80  53 /  80  60  40  30
Espanola........................  88  61  88  62 /  60  60  40  30
Santa Fe........................  83  61  85  63 /  70  60  30  30
Santa Fe Airport................  86  61  88  61 /  60  60  30  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  90  67  92  68 /  50  50  20  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  92  67  94  70 /  30  40  10  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  94  66  96  63 /  20  30  10  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  93  67  94  68 /  30  40  10  20
Belen...........................  94  65  96  66 /  20  20   5  10
Bernalillo......................  94  66  96  66 /  30  50  10  20
Bosque Farms....................  93  64  95  62 /  20  30   5  20
Corrales........................  94  66  96  65 /  30  40  10  20
Los Lunas.......................  94  65  95  63 /  20  30   5  20
Placitas........................  89  64  91  66 /  40  50  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  92  66  94  68 /  30  40  10  20
Socorro.........................  96  68  97  70 /  10  10   0  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  82  58  85  62 /  60  50  20  20
Tijeras.........................  86  60  89  64 /  60  50  20  20
Edgewood........................  83  57  89  62 /  60  50  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  85  55  90  56 /  50  50  10  20
Clines Corners..................  78  55  85  58 /  60  50  20  20
Mountainair.....................  84  58  88  61 /  40  30   5  10
Gran Quivira....................  85  58  87  60 /  40  30   5  10
Carrizozo.......................  89  63  91  65 /  30  20   5   5
Ruidoso.........................  82  56  83  54 /  30  20   5   5
Capulin.........................  71  54  79  54 /  70  80  50  40
Raton...........................  77  54  84  55 /  60  70  40  30
Springer........................  80  57  86  57 /  60  70  40  30
Las Vegas.......................  77  54  83  56 /  70  70  30  30
Clayton.........................  70  59  84  63 /  50  90  50  30
Roy.............................  78  59  84  61 /  50  70  30  30
Conchas.........................  87  63  93  66 /  30  60  30  30
Santa Rosa......................  85  63  91  64 /  20  40  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  82  62  92  67 /  30  60  40  20
Clovis..........................  90  65  95  68 /  40  50  20  20
Portales........................  90  65  96  67 /  30  50  20  20
Fort Sumner.....................  92  65  95  67 /  30  30  10  10
Roswell.........................  98  71  99  71 /  10  10   5   0
Picacho.........................  91  63  93  64 /  10  10   5   5
Elk.............................  88  58  91  60 /  10  10   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for NMZ212>215-222-223-227>232-
234.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...16