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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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695 FXUS65 KABQ 100538 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1138 PM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 252 PM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024 Widespread showers and storms today will increase the risk of flash flooding over recent burn scars and in northeastern New Mexico. A few storms may intensify and become severe in the northeast this evening and overnight. Isolated to scattered storms will generally be confined to the high terrain of western and northern New Mexico this weekend, but storm chances trend up again Monday. High temps climb above average this weekend and remain there through the duration of the week. Typical scattered monsoon showers and storms are likely each afternoon and evening next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 252 PM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024 New Mexico is sandwiched between a ridge over the Permian Basin and a weak Low over Baja California. With ample moisture (PWATs of 100- 160% of normal) in place, widespread showers and storms are expected again today. The first two areas to convect have been the western mountains and the south-central mountains/Upper Tularosa Valley. Weak deformation on the northeast side of the Baja Low is responsible for helping get storms off the ground over the western high terrain whereas a sfc convergence zone in combination with the destabilization effect of mid-level dry air is responsible for the latter. However, the main focus of storms today will be from the Sangre de Cristo mountains eastward to the TX border. The northeast highlands and northeast plains have been plagued by low clouds thus far today, but when they do finally erode in the next couple of hours, the strong instability will support rapid storm development. Low-level flow is oriented nearly perpendicular to the mean storm motion so training storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall rates for several hours. The HREF max 3-hour QPF shows a large area with 1.5"+ in Colfax and Union counties, although would not be surprised if a few locales received 3"+. Soil moisture is already relatively high in this region from rounds of showers and storms over the past several days so absorption will struggle to keep up with heavier rainfall rates. Sfc CAPE in excess of 1,000 J/kg along with effective shear values of 20-30KT will help storms intensify as they move east off the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mountains. The threat of damaging winds is greater than that of large hail, particularly as storms cluster together, but wouldn`t rule out the threat of hail altogether. While moisture is not as anomalously high in the western mountains, the ample lift and storm motion from southwest to northeast will be favorable for training storms out there too. Storms and the associated flash flood threat will persist well into the overnight hours and even as late as the early morning across north-central and northeastern NM. The High currently over the Permian Basin will nudge westward tomorrow, bringing some dry air into the central portion of the state. It will be a relative down day for convection, with most storms confined to the high terrain of far western and far northern NM. Increasing subsidence in the east-central and southeast plains will bring high temps up a few degrees closer to the century mark. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 252 PM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024 Seasonably dry air underneath the Monsoon ridge will help to keep the southeastern half of the state dry again Sunday whilst the western and northern borders of the state remain active thanks to a tilting of the southerly moisture plume. Global models continue to pick up on a southerly wave that will get embedded within the southerly moisture plume, resulting in an uptick in convection Monday afternoon, particularly for central and western portions of the state. Recycled moisture on Tuesday will keep shower and storm chances around for the western half of the state. Uncertainty begins to creep into the forecast mid-week as a trough enters the Pacific Northwest. Some models suggest an elongated sub-tropical high will shift in from the west. This in combination with the aformentioned trough would likely push some dry air into western NM, disrupting the monsoonal moisture plume. However, GEFS ensemble mean PWATs suggest that near average moisture will remain in place through the weekend, fueling typical mid-August afternoon showers and storms. The other concern next week will be the heat. Upper 90s and low 100s will be common in the east-central and southeast plains while temps will range from the low to upper 90s along the Rio Grande Valley. Temps won`t be breaking records but will still be enough to elevated the risk of heat-related illnesses. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 PM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024 SHRA/TS will move west to east across northern NM thru the predawn hours. Most of this activity will be light except for areas closer to the TX border where locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds may occur. Widespread MVFR low cigs are likely to develop along and north of I-40 within northeast NM overnight. Patchy IFR cigs are possible from near KLVS to KRTN and KCAO. Drier and more stable air will filter northwest into the region Saturday with a decrease in storm coverage areawide. The focus for SHRA/TS will be mainly confined to the northern and far western high terrain. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 252 PM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are next expected the next 7 days. Widespread storms today will decrease in coverage tomorrow as they become confined to the high terrain of western and northern NM. Low clouds during the morning hours will once again create poor ventilation in eastern NM, but clouds should clear earlier than today. Temperatures rise above average again this weekend and remain there throughout next week, creating heat risk concerns along the Rio Grande Valley and in the eastern plains. Monday looks like another active Monsoon day with convective activity gradually trending down throughout the week. Drier air may infiltrate from the west late week, decreasing precipitation chances there. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 64 87 65 87 / 50 30 40 20 Dulce........................... 54 82 53 83 / 80 60 40 50 Cuba............................ 59 83 58 84 / 60 40 20 50 Gallup.......................... 58 88 59 86 / 20 10 10 50 El Morro........................ 58 83 58 84 / 30 10 20 60 Grants.......................... 60 87 61 87 / 30 10 20 60 Quemado......................... 58 86 59 86 / 20 10 10 60 Magdalena....................... 64 86 64 89 / 10 5 5 30 Datil........................... 57 83 58 85 / 10 10 10 50 Reserve......................... 58 89 58 91 / 10 5 5 50 Glenwood........................ 66 94 68 95 / 5 5 5 40 Chama........................... 51 74 51 78 / 80 70 40 70 Los Alamos...................... 60 79 62 83 / 70 50 20 50 Pecos........................... 57 81 58 85 / 50 20 10 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 52 75 53 79 / 80 60 40 60 Red River....................... 47 66 49 71 / 70 60 40 60 Angel Fire...................... 47 71 47 75 / 70 50 20 60 Taos............................ 55 79 54 84 / 70 50 20 30 Mora............................ 52 79 55 82 / 60 40 30 40 Espanola........................ 61 85 63 90 / 50 40 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 60 82 63 86 / 40 20 20 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 86 62 89 / 30 20 10 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 90 69 92 / 20 10 10 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 92 69 94 / 20 5 5 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 67 94 69 96 / 20 0 5 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 93 70 94 / 20 5 10 10 Belen........................... 66 94 68 96 / 10 0 10 10 Bernalillo...................... 66 93 68 96 / 30 10 10 10 Bosque Farms.................... 65 93 68 96 / 10 0 5 10 Corrales........................ 66 94 68 95 / 20 10 10 20 Los Lunas....................... 65 93 68 96 / 10 0 5 10 Placitas........................ 65 90 68 92 / 20 10 10 20 Rio Rancho...................... 66 93 69 94 / 30 10 10 10 Socorro......................... 68 95 69 98 / 5 0 5 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 85 63 86 / 20 10 5 30 Tijeras......................... 62 87 64 89 / 20 10 5 30 Edgewood........................ 58 87 62 90 / 20 5 5 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 56 88 59 91 / 30 5 5 10 Clines Corners.................. 55 83 59 87 / 30 5 5 10 Mountainair..................... 58 86 61 89 / 10 0 5 10 Gran Quivira.................... 58 86 60 90 / 10 0 0 20 Carrizozo....................... 64 89 65 93 / 20 5 0 10 Ruidoso......................... 57 81 59 84 / 10 10 0 10 Capulin......................... 56 79 56 83 / 90 40 40 40 Raton........................... 56 84 56 88 / 70 40 30 30 Springer........................ 58 87 58 90 / 60 30 20 20 Las Vegas....................... 55 83 57 87 / 50 20 20 30 Clayton......................... 59 86 63 91 / 80 40 30 10 Roy............................. 59 86 62 90 / 60 30 20 20 Conchas......................... 64 94 67 99 / 50 20 20 5 Santa Rosa...................... 63 91 64 95 / 20 5 10 5 Tucumcari....................... 64 93 69 99 / 50 10 10 0 Clovis.......................... 65 95 68 101 / 20 0 0 0 Portales........................ 65 95 68 101 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 66 94 67 99 / 10 0 5 0 Roswell......................... 71 100 70 104 / 10 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 64 92 63 96 / 0 0 0 5 Elk............................. 59 89 61 93 / 0 0 0 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ212>215-222-223- 227>232-234. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...42