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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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526 FXUS65 KABQ 101543 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 943 AM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 937 AM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024 An anomalously moist airmass and deformation around the north side of a ridge has allowed dense cloud cover and scattered showers to persist this morning across the northern third of the state. This will help keep temperatures down today so did a minor update to drop high temps a few degrees, particularly in the northern mountains and northeast plains. PoPs and sky cover were also increased for the morning and afternoon. Clearing will begin to occur early to mid-afternoon, destabilizing the atmosphere and increasing the potential for heavier rainfall rates. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 133 AM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Showers and weak thunderstorms may persist over some northern areas of New Mexico through the morning hours, followed by a slow and gradual clearing of clouds into the afternoon when additional scattered storms may redevelop. Areas south of Interstate 40 are expected to remain mostly dry today. Into Sunday, the best moisture will be steered into western and northern New Mexico where scattered storms will multiply in the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures will begin to warm up today and Sunday with many locations in central valleys and the eastern plains reaching the 90`s and low 100`s by Sunday. A fairly typical early August monsoon pattern will persist into Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week with storms generally favoring the western and central high terrain areas of New Mexico while the eastern plains remain mostly dry and hotter than normal. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 133 AM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024 A 594dm H5 ridge axis is building northwest into southern NM early this morning while moist, west-northwest flow aloft of 60 to 70 kt slides across the central and northern Rockies. This is leading to an area of enhanced atmospheric stretching and lift across northern NM. Showers and storms have persisted well into the night and this will continue thru mid morning along and north of I-40. Low level southeasterly flow across northeast NM beneath stronger flow aloft will allow a few locally stronger cells to continue as well. Patchy low clouds roaming parts of eastern NM with these storms will erode slowly thru the morning. A break is expected thru midday followed by convective initiation late this afternoon across the northern high terrain. This activity will move west to east while spreading into valleys and the plains of northeast NM thru the late evening. A few showers developing along the Cont Divide by sunset may even slide into the RGV thru late tonight. Max temps today will be slightly below normal over northern NM and roughly 5 to 10F above normal along and south of I-40 where mostly sunny skies prevail. Forecast confidence is lower on Sunday with regard to the coverage of storms for northern and western NM. There is uncertainty with the orientation of the H5 ridge axis over NM given timing differences with a subtle shortwave moving thru the central Rockies. A flatter ridge axis over southern NM may allow more storms to fire up farther south toward the I-40 corridor. A more northern expansion of the upper high would limit convection to the far northern and western high terrain. Max temps do trend warmer with lower PWATs so the overall threat for locally heavy rainfall is likely to decrease either way compared to recent days. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 133 AM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will decrease and diminish through the evening hours Sunday, struggling to regenerate on cold pools outside of northern and western areas. Into Monday, the upper high will begin to re-center over TX, potentially allowing some of the deeper subtropical moisture to spread from the Sonoran deserts into western NM. This would be a rather diffuse and subtle advection of moisture and it may have trouble making it into northern NM zones as was previously advertised by models. Now, the NAM, and to some extent the SREF, is/are keeping heights a bit higher over SE NM which would not give as optimal of a steering pattern to direct the moisture into NM. POPs have been trimmed slightly, but many western and northern ranges are still in the 50-60 percent range for Monday afternoon. The high does sidestep a bit more toward the Ark-La-Tx region on Tuesday, and a weak easterly wave would be moving into MX. This may not offer the optimal steering flow for a deeper, long duration subtropical tap, as some west/southwesterlies aloft will be dipping into northern NM on Wednesday as a shortwave trough enters the intermountain-west. POPs on Tuesday were massaged to keep likely values (greater than 60 percent) over the west central and southwestern mountains, but scattered coverage (30-50 percent) over the northern and central to south central mountains. These values won`t change all that much going into Wednesday, despite the moisture diffusely getting spread a bit eastward. Minimal storm coverage is expected over the eastern plains during this time, keeping them hotter than average with 90`s to low 100`s. Uncertainties grow into Thursday, Friday and even next weekend. The aforementioned shortwave is being depicted differently with regards to track and strength which will have implications bringing a backdoor front into NM from the northeast. The stronger wave on the ECMWF solution would bring the front into eastern zones Thursday, whereas the GFS subdues and delays this until Friday which will have big implications on when and where associated convection develops. These extremes have introduced some noisy POP guidance for Thursday and Friday, and this will be a time frame that will certainly be updated and tweaked on future shifts. Thereafter, some amplification to the upper level pattern is depicted with the operational GFS solution building the ridge over AZ, UT and southern ID while the GEFS, ECMWF, and EPS keep the high centered over northern NM and southern CO. The GFS solution would introduce northwest flow into northeastern NM, opening the door for severe storms and another backdoor front while other solutions would fend this off. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 501 AM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024 SHRA/TS moving east across northern NM this morning will taper off thru around 10am. The strongest storms will focus over northeast NM where locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning strikes are expected. Widespread MVFR low cigs over northeast NM will also dissipate thru mid-morning. The next crop of SHRA/TS will develop over the northern and western high terrain near 3pm then move east into nearby valleys and highlands thru the evening hours. Showers may persist well into the night once again across northern NM. There is a much lower risk for low clouds tonight as winds will be veering out of the southwest. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 133 AM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024 There are no critical fire weather conditions for the next 7 days. A decrease in storm coverage with smaller footprints of heavy rainfall is expected today. The focus area is likely to stay north of I-40. Sunday is likely to be similar to today with the main focus across far northern and western NM. Upper level high pressure is expected to shift east of NM next week with a more traditional south-north monsoon pattern across the region. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible each day with increasing risk for flash flooding. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 87 65 88 65 / 30 40 30 30 Dulce........................... 78 52 85 53 / 60 40 60 30 Cuba............................ 80 58 85 58 / 40 40 50 30 Gallup.......................... 89 58 88 57 / 20 20 50 40 El Morro........................ 84 58 84 55 / 20 20 50 50 Grants.......................... 89 61 88 60 / 20 20 50 40 Quemado......................... 88 59 86 56 / 10 20 60 40 Magdalena....................... 88 65 88 65 / 5 10 40 30 Datil........................... 86 58 85 55 / 10 20 50 30 Reserve......................... 91 58 91 57 / 5 10 50 30 Glenwood........................ 96 67 96 65 / 5 5 40 20 Chama........................... 69 50 77 51 / 70 40 70 40 Los Alamos...................... 77 63 85 63 / 50 40 50 30 Pecos........................... 78 58 85 57 / 50 20 40 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 71 52 80 52 / 70 40 60 40 Red River....................... 62 48 71 45 / 70 40 60 40 Angel Fire...................... 68 45 75 40 / 60 30 50 30 Taos............................ 75 54 84 54 / 50 30 30 30 Mora............................ 75 53 83 53 / 50 40 40 20 Espanola........................ 82 61 90 62 / 50 30 20 30 Santa Fe........................ 80 62 85 63 / 50 30 30 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 84 61 90 61 / 40 20 20 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 92 69 94 67 / 20 20 40 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 93 69 96 69 / 10 20 20 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 96 68 97 62 / 10 20 20 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 94 69 96 67 / 20 20 20 30 Belen........................... 96 68 96 66 / 5 10 20 20 Bernalillo...................... 94 68 97 65 / 20 20 20 20 Bosque Farms.................... 95 66 96 62 / 5 20 20 20 Corrales........................ 95 68 97 64 / 20 20 20 20 Los Lunas....................... 95 67 96 63 / 5 20 20 20 Placitas........................ 91 67 93 65 / 20 20 20 20 Rio Rancho...................... 94 69 96 67 / 20 20 20 20 Socorro......................... 98 70 98 70 / 0 10 20 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 85 63 87 61 / 20 20 30 20 Tijeras......................... 90 64 92 63 / 20 20 30 20 Edgewood........................ 90 61 91 61 / 20 20 30 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 89 58 91 56 / 20 10 20 20 Clines Corners.................. 84 59 87 58 / 20 10 20 20 Mountainair..................... 88 62 89 61 / 5 10 20 20 Gran Quivira.................... 87 60 90 60 / 5 10 20 20 Carrizozo....................... 91 65 93 67 / 5 5 10 10 Ruidoso......................... 84 59 85 58 / 10 10 10 10 Capulin......................... 77 56 83 54 / 50 30 40 30 Raton........................... 81 56 88 54 / 40 30 30 30 Springer........................ 84 57 90 56 / 40 30 30 30 Las Vegas....................... 82 56 87 55 / 60 30 30 20 Clayton......................... 82 63 91 63 / 30 30 10 30 Roy............................. 82 61 90 60 / 60 40 20 30 Conchas......................... 91 67 99 64 / 70 20 5 20 Santa Rosa...................... 91 65 94 64 / 20 10 5 20 Tucumcari....................... 92 68 98 66 / 40 20 0 20 Clovis.......................... 96 69 101 69 / 5 5 0 10 Portales........................ 96 69 101 67 / 5 5 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 95 67 99 68 / 5 10 0 10 Roswell......................... 99 72 103 72 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 93 64 96 65 / 5 5 5 5 Elk............................. 90 60 94 62 / 5 10 5 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...42