526
FXUS65 KABQ 101543 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
943 AM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 AM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024

An anomalously moist airmass and deformation around the north side
of a ridge has allowed dense cloud cover and scattered showers to
persist this morning across the northern third of the state. This
will help keep temperatures down today so did a minor update to
drop high temps a few degrees, particularly in the northern
mountains and northeast plains. PoPs and sky cover were also
increased for the morning and afternoon. Clearing will begin to
occur early to mid-afternoon, destabilizing the atmosphere and
increasing the potential for heavier rainfall rates.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 133 AM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Showers and weak thunderstorms may persist over some northern
areas of New Mexico through the morning hours, followed by a slow
and gradual clearing of clouds into the afternoon when additional
scattered storms may redevelop. Areas south of Interstate 40 are
expected to remain mostly dry today. Into Sunday, the best
moisture will be steered into western and northern New Mexico
where scattered storms will multiply in the afternoon and early
evening. Temperatures will begin to warm up today and Sunday with
many locations in central valleys and the eastern plains reaching
the 90`s and low 100`s by Sunday. A fairly typical early August
monsoon pattern will persist into Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of
next week with storms generally favoring the western and central
high terrain areas of New Mexico while the eastern plains remain
mostly dry and hotter than normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 133 AM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024

A 594dm H5 ridge axis is building northwest into southern NM early
this morning while moist, west-northwest flow aloft of 60 to 70 kt
slides across the central and northern Rockies. This is leading to
an area of enhanced atmospheric stretching and lift across northern
NM. Showers and storms have persisted well into the night and this
will continue thru mid morning along and north of I-40. Low level
southeasterly flow across northeast NM beneath stronger flow aloft
will allow a few locally stronger cells to continue as well. Patchy
low clouds roaming parts of eastern NM with these storms will erode
slowly thru the morning. A break is expected thru midday followed by
convective initiation late this afternoon across the northern high
terrain. This activity will move west to east while spreading into
valleys and the plains of northeast NM thru the late evening. A few
showers developing along the Cont Divide by sunset may even slide
into the RGV thru late tonight. Max temps today will be slightly
below normal over northern NM and roughly 5 to 10F above normal
along and south of I-40 where mostly sunny skies prevail.

Forecast confidence is lower on Sunday with regard to the coverage
of storms for northern and western NM. There is uncertainty with the
orientation of the H5 ridge axis over NM given timing differences
with a subtle shortwave moving thru the central Rockies. A flatter
ridge axis over southern NM may allow more storms to fire up farther
south toward the I-40 corridor. A more northern expansion of the
upper high would limit convection to the far northern and western
high terrain. Max temps do trend warmer with lower PWATs so the
overall threat for locally heavy rainfall is likely to decrease
either way compared to recent days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 133 AM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will decrease and diminish through the
evening hours Sunday, struggling to regenerate on cold pools
outside of northern and western areas. Into Monday, the upper high
will begin to re-center over TX, potentially allowing some of the
deeper subtropical moisture to spread from the Sonoran deserts
into western NM. This would be a rather diffuse and subtle advection
of moisture and it may have trouble making it into northern NM
zones as was previously advertised by models. Now, the NAM, and
to some extent the SREF, is/are keeping heights a bit higher over
SE NM which would not give as optimal of a steering pattern to
direct the moisture into NM. POPs have been trimmed slightly, but
many western and northern ranges are still in the 50-60 percent
range for Monday afternoon.

The high does sidestep a bit more toward the Ark-La-Tx region on
Tuesday, and a weak easterly wave would be moving into MX. This
may not offer the optimal steering flow for a deeper, long
duration subtropical tap, as some west/southwesterlies aloft will
be dipping into northern NM on Wednesday as a shortwave trough
enters the intermountain-west. POPs on Tuesday were massaged to
keep likely values (greater than 60 percent) over the west
central and southwestern mountains, but scattered coverage (30-50
percent) over the northern and central to south central
mountains. These values won`t change all that much going into
Wednesday, despite the moisture diffusely getting spread a bit
eastward. Minimal storm coverage is expected over the eastern
plains during this time, keeping them hotter than average with
90`s to low 100`s.

Uncertainties grow into Thursday, Friday and even next weekend.
The aforementioned shortwave is being depicted differently with
regards to track and strength which will have implications
bringing a backdoor front into NM from the northeast. The stronger
wave on the ECMWF solution would bring the front into eastern
zones Thursday, whereas the GFS subdues and delays this until
Friday which will have big implications on when and where
associated convection develops. These extremes have introduced
some noisy POP guidance for Thursday and Friday, and this will be
a time frame that will certainly be updated and tweaked on future
shifts. Thereafter, some amplification to the upper level pattern
is depicted with the operational GFS solution building the ridge
over AZ, UT and southern ID while the GEFS, ECMWF, and EPS keep
the high centered over northern NM and southern CO. The GFS
solution would introduce northwest flow into northeastern NM,
opening the door for severe storms and another backdoor front
while other solutions would fend this off.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 501 AM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024

SHRA/TS moving east across northern NM this morning will taper
off thru around 10am. The strongest storms will focus over
northeast NM where locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
frequent lightning strikes are expected. Widespread MVFR low cigs
over northeast NM will also dissipate thru mid-morning. The next
crop of SHRA/TS will develop over the northern and western high
terrain near 3pm then move east into nearby valleys and highlands
thru the evening hours. Showers may persist well into the night
once again across northern NM. There is a much lower risk for low
clouds tonight as winds will be veering out of the southwest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 133 AM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024

There are no critical fire weather conditions for the next 7 days. A
decrease in storm coverage with smaller footprints of heavy rainfall
is expected today. The focus area is likely to stay north of I-40.
Sunday is likely to be similar to today with the main focus across
far northern and western NM. Upper level high pressure is expected
to shift east of NM next week with a more traditional south-north
monsoon pattern across the region. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible each day with increasing risk for flash flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  87  65  88  65 /  30  40  30  30
Dulce...........................  78  52  85  53 /  60  40  60  30
Cuba............................  80  58  85  58 /  40  40  50  30
Gallup..........................  89  58  88  57 /  20  20  50  40
El Morro........................  84  58  84  55 /  20  20  50  50
Grants..........................  89  61  88  60 /  20  20  50  40
Quemado.........................  88  59  86  56 /  10  20  60  40
Magdalena.......................  88  65  88  65 /   5  10  40  30
Datil...........................  86  58  85  55 /  10  20  50  30
Reserve.........................  91  58  91  57 /   5  10  50  30
Glenwood........................  96  67  96  65 /   5   5  40  20
Chama...........................  69  50  77  51 /  70  40  70  40
Los Alamos......................  77  63  85  63 /  50  40  50  30
Pecos...........................  78  58  85  57 /  50  20  40  20
Cerro/Questa....................  71  52  80  52 /  70  40  60  40
Red River.......................  62  48  71  45 /  70  40  60  40
Angel Fire......................  68  45  75  40 /  60  30  50  30
Taos............................  75  54  84  54 /  50  30  30  30
Mora............................  75  53  83  53 /  50  40  40  20
Espanola........................  82  61  90  62 /  50  30  20  30
Santa Fe........................  80  62  85  63 /  50  30  30  30
Santa Fe Airport................  84  61  90  61 /  40  20  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  92  69  94  67 /  20  20  40  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  93  69  96  69 /  10  20  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  96  68  97  62 /  10  20  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  94  69  96  67 /  20  20  20  30
Belen...........................  96  68  96  66 /   5  10  20  20
Bernalillo......................  94  68  97  65 /  20  20  20  20
Bosque Farms....................  95  66  96  62 /   5  20  20  20
Corrales........................  95  68  97  64 /  20  20  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  95  67  96  63 /   5  20  20  20
Placitas........................  91  67  93  65 /  20  20  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  94  69  96  67 /  20  20  20  20
Socorro.........................  98  70  98  70 /   0  10  20  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  85  63  87  61 /  20  20  30  20
Tijeras.........................  90  64  92  63 /  20  20  30  20
Edgewood........................  90  61  91  61 /  20  20  30  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  89  58  91  56 /  20  10  20  20
Clines Corners..................  84  59  87  58 /  20  10  20  20
Mountainair.....................  88  62  89  61 /   5  10  20  20
Gran Quivira....................  87  60  90  60 /   5  10  20  20
Carrizozo.......................  91  65  93  67 /   5   5  10  10
Ruidoso.........................  84  59  85  58 /  10  10  10  10
Capulin.........................  77  56  83  54 /  50  30  40  30
Raton...........................  81  56  88  54 /  40  30  30  30
Springer........................  84  57  90  56 /  40  30  30  30
Las Vegas.......................  82  56  87  55 /  60  30  30  20
Clayton.........................  82  63  91  63 /  30  30  10  30
Roy.............................  82  61  90  60 /  60  40  20  30
Conchas.........................  91  67  99  64 /  70  20   5  20
Santa Rosa......................  91  65  94  64 /  20  10   5  20
Tucumcari.......................  92  68  98  66 /  40  20   0  20
Clovis..........................  96  69 101  69 /   5   5   0  10
Portales........................  96  69 101  67 /   5   5   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  95  67  99  68 /   5  10   0  10
Roswell.........................  99  72 103  72 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  93  64  96  65 /   5   5   5   5
Elk.............................  90  60  94  62 /   5  10   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...42